Posted on 09/15/2012 12:21:42 PM PDT by lowteksh
Another new poll from ARG, this time in Colorado, shows Obama with slim lead despite +2 Dem weighting. Will post re-weighted averages after the break...
In the last week , the MSM will have to try and salvage their reputations with stories of the unexpected dramatic shift to Mitt.
Yep. I would have to believe that the tragic events of the last week will cause the numbers for Obama to drop.
But it sure seems that they doctor these polls, to make it appear that Obama is more popular than he really is.
So basically it’s tied which is bad for Obama..the media is relying on a 2008 model. No way do Dems outnumber Republicans this time around. The media is just trying to use these polls as an excuse that way in November when Romney wins they can blame it on Voter ID laws
Reweighted by party ID from past elections:
Poll:
Obama: 48.52%, Romney: 46.80% (Difference: 1.72%)
2010 Turnout (GOP: 35/DEM: 33/IND: 32):
Romney: 48.56%, Obama: 46.81%
2008 Turnout (GOP: 31/DEM: 30/IND: 39):
Romney: 47.86%, Obama: 47.27%
2004 Turnout (GOP: 38/DEM: 29/IND: 33):
Romney: 51.46%, Obama: 43.84%
Split the “other” vote equally from each candidate and split the undecideds 60/40 for Romney and you get:
2010: 50.55% Romney, 48.14% Obama
2008: 49.85% Romney, 48.60% Obama
2004: 53.45% Romney, 45.17% Obama
The media are using the undecideds (5-8% of the vote) to make this a horse race when history shows that undecideds always break in favor of the challenger by Election Day.
My Uncle lives CO. He hates 0bama. But he says if you go into Denver and the suburbs, it’s utterly hopeless, 60% plus support for the Kenyan in those parts.
He says the only hope Romney has is real heavy turnout in the rural areas (minus Aspen) and El Paso County (Colorado Springs). But he says even with heavy turnout by the GOP, he still thinks 0bama has enough votes in the Denver area to offset it and will win CO. He says CO is pretty much a blue state now.
what was the breakdown of Independents in the poll??
It’s likely voters, that’s good, but there are two splits I find questionable:
Independents favor Obama 48-45. That doesn’t match the polling in most battleground states where Romney typically has a double-digit lead with indies.
Similarly, whites only favor Romney 50-46 in a state with a lot of Mormons. Maybe they did all their polling in Boulder.
“My Uncle lives CO. He hates 0bama. But he says if you go into Denver and the suburbs, it’s utterly hopeless, 60% plus support for the Kenyan in those parts.
He says the only hope Romney has is real heavy turnout in the rural areas (minus Aspen) and El Paso County (Colorado Springs). But he says even with heavy turnout by the GOP, he still thinks 0bama has enough votes in the Denver area to offset it and will win CO. He says CO is pretty much a blue state now.”
Agreed.
The damage has been done in Colorado — too many liberals have moved in and “tipped” the state over to the blue side. The state is now victim to “the New York City syndrome” — the overwhelming numbers of lefties in the Denver metro area make it difficult for the conservative areas of the state to have an effective political voice.
My guess is that this time around, CO will turn out very close, but Obama’s still going to win it.
I also predict that in future elections, Colorado isn’t going to be worth spending much time or money on, if you’re a Republican candidate for president...
I’d be surprised if Romney takes CO. Your uncle is correct...it is very difficult for El Paso county and the rural areas to override Denver and some of the suburbs even with heavy turnout.
Pueblo is another solid democrat area but more of the welfare liberals whereas Denver would like to believe themselves to be the limousine liberals and Boulder, the academic liberals.
I believe one of the few things that keeps CO from sliding into another CA is our TABOR.
Oh and the state GOP is absolutely worthless
It doesn’t FREAKIN MATTER!!...CO folk, go out and bring EVERYONE who is voting BUT can’t get to the polls!! THE FIGHT ain’t with the pollsters BUT WITH AN EVIL man who is SO WILLING to destroy this country and I FOR ONE AIN’T GONNA LET HIM!!! SCREW THE POLLS and work hard as YOUR CHILDREN’S LIVES AND YOURS depended on it!! First they came for your freedoms, next to extinguish the lives of every Jew, and Christian, either they be young or old they are coming for us!! What you gonna do...roll over and play poll numbers...HELL NO!! LET’S KICK SOME A$$! THE FIGHT IS ON! Remember: GOD IS OUR ONLY SOURCE and remember the battle of Gideon! Guess who won that battle? You guessed right!! Now lets go!! If you live in CO stand at busy street corners(this cost nothing) with signs, go door to door, stand across the Denver stadium holding signs with a good scary message on it...DO WHATEVER to defeat and drive that stake right into this EVIL COMMUNIST PIG and his PARTY’s heart!!
CO is a little bit different in regards to independents...or what is called unaffiliated in CO.
The unaffiliated classification has always run around 35-40% of registered voters in the state and at times even more.
I’m not sure why this happens but my guess would be the movement of the population in and out of the state and you don’t have the generation after generation of the same
unionized family who consider it a family duty to register as a Democrat. It’s rare to meet someone who was born and raised in CO and even rarer to find someone who is 2nd or more generation.
Most if not all of my friends and family are registered as
unaffiliated and refuse to give the GOP any acknowledgement.
Of the few liberals living in my neighborhood, they don’t
even vote.
Great post! This poll is good news - Romney is within MOE of taking over a Obama 2008 state. Yet the majority of posts here is doom and gloom. Geez people grow some nads..Obama is the one hanging by a thread just hoping to barely win states he won easily last time. I swear there must be so many people here trying to depress the Romney vote.
You are good at this, you give me great hope... I saw your work over on the Ohio ARG thread...
Please keep it up
Another poster noted they are setting us up for a "conspiracy" i.e. we cheated etc if Romney does have a blowout and the polls are completely wrong.
bump
Another reason I wouldn't buy this -- 8 weeks from the election and a week after Labor Day -- and only 3% are undecided / 1 % voting for 3rd party candidates?
That's just not believable.
Question. Why doesn’t ARG show up in the Real Clear Politics average? Maybe it does, but I can’t find it.
Is it a reliable poll?
Not trying to start any arguments, just want an answer.
they do not break down gender.
they can skew by including republican by marriage women who are really democrats.
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