Skip to comments.Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data
Posted on 09/15/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT by profit_guy
The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
On Sept 10th Gallup showed Obama with a 5 point lead. Today they show Obama with a 4 point lead, which would mean using unskewed data that Romney now leads by 6...
A week or so ago, intrade.com had the Fraud up by 16%.
They’ve doubled down and are now calling it by 32 for Hussein.
We are the ones YOU NEVER POLL and we are legion all over this UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Have pencil, WILL VOTE.
I have a bottle of champagne ready to celebrate the end of the OBAMA administration and his CZARS. Trust me, it will happen.
And never forget this is NOT 2008. Romney will dominate any state that was "close" 4 years ago.
No way will the electorate be 8+ Democrat. At best, it might be 2+ Democrat, although I think it will be even, or even a slight R edge - which favors Romney.
At any rate, you can prove these idiots wrong by getting your conservative friends out to vote. The election is up to us.
it only counts in battle ground and close states.
I’m with you!!! Election Day, November 6, 2012, evening results: Romney/Ryan, 57%, Obama/Biden, 40%, Others, 3%. Obama/Biden will carry only eight states!!! I will crawl through broken glass with my entire family of voting age, all of us, twenty-two strong, voting against Obama, the destroyer of the American Republic!!! Anybody But Obama!!!
Think of the money that has been channeled to the Obots and not one is checking to see where the Intrade money is coming from or who is placing it.
It is a GREAT way to keep up the narrative and does not have to be reported, so it is outside the campaign laws.
This is one one the areas that I, personally, would manipulated, if i was so inclined to maintain a narrative.
just saying....don't believe the hype.
Is that an 8 percent oversample of Demwits?!? Thanks profit_guy.
I am so sick and tired of all these polls, especially Gallup's.
We know the truth, and WE will not be shaken from our appointed voting date of NOV. 6th, 2012. We will be there is numbers that will shake the heavens.
We are the ones they NEVER POLL, we are silent, but we are LEGION.
no wonder bambi went to vegas when all hell breaks loose in cairo/mideast,,apparently the internals have him down by 10 points in nevada.
There's your difference ~ has nothing to do with oversampling of Democrats.
Here's the Republican problem ~ we are a minority party about barely a third of the electorate. We can win when our BASE is motivated to go out and vote in large numbers, and when the Democrat BASE is not motivated to do anything but sit around smoking cigarettes and drinking beer.
This is exactly why I cannot understand the GOP-e ~ every action they take looks like they have no idea how to win an election and it's pretty obvious they are doing a lot of magical thinking about it.
We still have to campaign ~ and we still need a major voter registration operation (Republicans have a higher velocity of relocation than Democrats so this turns out to be more important for us than them), and we need some serious 'get out the vote' operations planned so that our people actually vote!
These things do not appear to be part of the campaign.
Not to drop a fly in the ointment, but how do we actually KNOW that an 8% lean toward Democrats is not accurate?
Yes lots of folks express dissatisfaction with Obama, but not many of them are exactly enthralled with Romney. And unfortunately, I have come across lots of self-professed conservatives that would rather have the US become a Stalinist State than see Mitt Romney in the White House.
Dem turnout will be down, but it’s possible that GOP stay-homes will match Obama’s. And give him 4 more years.
I am 60 years old and have never been polled once in my entire life, neither has my wife or my two adult children. I don't know of one single person who I know has been polled.
My volunteer assignment today was to knock on doors in Ft Lauderdale in neighborhoods right next to 95 (section 8 galore with lots of pit bulls). Romney did better than The Won among those who opened the door. I saw not one O bumper sticker or yard sign. This is not 2008.
The Romney Rally in the stock market is the real poll to watch. The liberal talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg cannot explain why the market is going up in the face of bad news — and the answer is simple: the global stock market is betting that Romney will win and that the economy will improve. Also, the market is betting that capital gains taxes will remain at 15% and not move up.
Remember, the market crash of 2008 occurred when Obama went ahead of McCain in the polls and then widened his lead. Poof. The market realized that Keynesian economics was about to run wild — and it did.
Forget Intrade and watch the S&P 500.
In the last two important elections, (Wisconsin recall and 2010 Congressional elections) the GOP turnout equaled or exceeded that of the Democrats. I don’t know why people think the momentum has reversed.
I do think minority voters will turnout for Obama in the same high percentage as they did in 2008 (13% for blacks, I believe). On the other hand, I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago.
It’s up to us. If we go out and vote, and get our conservative friends to vote, we can win this thing.
FFS Intrade overwhelmingly had Obamacare being overturned.