Skip to comments.Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data
Posted on 09/15/2012 5:57:24 PM PDT by profit_guy
The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
On Sept 10th Gallup showed Obama with a 5 point lead. Today they show Obama with a 4 point lead, which would mean using unskewed data that Romney now leads by 6...
A week or so ago, intrade.com had the Fraud up by 16%.
They’ve doubled down and are now calling it by 32 for Hussein.
We are the ones YOU NEVER POLL and we are legion all over this UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Have pencil, WILL VOTE.
I have a bottle of champagne ready to celebrate the end of the OBAMA administration and his CZARS. Trust me, it will happen.
And never forget this is NOT 2008. Romney will dominate any state that was "close" 4 years ago.
No way will the electorate be 8+ Democrat. At best, it might be 2+ Democrat, although I think it will be even, or even a slight R edge - which favors Romney.
At any rate, you can prove these idiots wrong by getting your conservative friends out to vote. The election is up to us.
it only counts in battle ground and close states.
I’m with you!!! Election Day, November 6, 2012, evening results: Romney/Ryan, 57%, Obama/Biden, 40%, Others, 3%. Obama/Biden will carry only eight states!!! I will crawl through broken glass with my entire family of voting age, all of us, twenty-two strong, voting against Obama, the destroyer of the American Republic!!! Anybody But Obama!!!
Think of the money that has been channeled to the Obots and not one is checking to see where the Intrade money is coming from or who is placing it.
It is a GREAT way to keep up the narrative and does not have to be reported, so it is outside the campaign laws.
This is one one the areas that I, personally, would manipulated, if i was so inclined to maintain a narrative.
just saying....don't believe the hype.
Is that an 8 percent oversample of Demwits?!? Thanks profit_guy.
I am so sick and tired of all these polls, especially Gallup's.
We know the truth, and WE will not be shaken from our appointed voting date of NOV. 6th, 2012. We will be there is numbers that will shake the heavens.
We are the ones they NEVER POLL, we are silent, but we are LEGION.
no wonder bambi went to vegas when all hell breaks loose in cairo/mideast,,apparently the internals have him down by 10 points in nevada.
There's your difference ~ has nothing to do with oversampling of Democrats.
Here's the Republican problem ~ we are a minority party about barely a third of the electorate. We can win when our BASE is motivated to go out and vote in large numbers, and when the Democrat BASE is not motivated to do anything but sit around smoking cigarettes and drinking beer.
This is exactly why I cannot understand the GOP-e ~ every action they take looks like they have no idea how to win an election and it's pretty obvious they are doing a lot of magical thinking about it.
We still have to campaign ~ and we still need a major voter registration operation (Republicans have a higher velocity of relocation than Democrats so this turns out to be more important for us than them), and we need some serious 'get out the vote' operations planned so that our people actually vote!
These things do not appear to be part of the campaign.
Not to drop a fly in the ointment, but how do we actually KNOW that an 8% lean toward Democrats is not accurate?
Yes lots of folks express dissatisfaction with Obama, but not many of them are exactly enthralled with Romney. And unfortunately, I have come across lots of self-professed conservatives that would rather have the US become a Stalinist State than see Mitt Romney in the White House.
Dem turnout will be down, but it’s possible that GOP stay-homes will match Obama’s. And give him 4 more years.
I am 60 years old and have never been polled once in my entire life, neither has my wife or my two adult children. I don't know of one single person who I know has been polled.
My volunteer assignment today was to knock on doors in Ft Lauderdale in neighborhoods right next to 95 (section 8 galore with lots of pit bulls). Romney did better than The Won among those who opened the door. I saw not one O bumper sticker or yard sign. This is not 2008.
The Romney Rally in the stock market is the real poll to watch. The liberal talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg cannot explain why the market is going up in the face of bad news — and the answer is simple: the global stock market is betting that Romney will win and that the economy will improve. Also, the market is betting that capital gains taxes will remain at 15% and not move up.
Remember, the market crash of 2008 occurred when Obama went ahead of McCain in the polls and then widened his lead. Poof. The market realized that Keynesian economics was about to run wild — and it did.
Forget Intrade and watch the S&P 500.
In the last two important elections, (Wisconsin recall and 2010 Congressional elections) the GOP turnout equaled or exceeded that of the Democrats. I don’t know why people think the momentum has reversed.
I do think minority voters will turnout for Obama in the same high percentage as they did in 2008 (13% for blacks, I believe). On the other hand, I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago.
It’s up to us. If we go out and vote, and get our conservative friends to vote, we can win this thing.
FFS Intrade overwhelmingly had Obamacare being overturned.
Thank you for your service.
But, I guarantee you, we are HERE and in the holding pattern ready to VOTE.
Fact is, I don't answer my phone to unknown numbers any longer. Keeps them wondering. Let them think they are winning, apathy then sets in on their side.
Curious to know how many of HIS majesties CZAR'S have already sent out their resumes.
If America only knew....
Will America be lost because noone had the guts to expose Obama?
The best Obama exposure site on the net:
(by our own FReeper, Beckwith)
The Obama File
The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
Just a few of the pages:
Where did you read that?
Right. That’s why, when you use real 2010 splits, Romney is doing well. By even unskewed data, he’s turning out a higher % of Rs than Zero is of Ds. Oh, and between the big voter roll purges and some impressive shifts in party ID since 2008, this simply is not the same electorate.
I’m short some cash. Can Intrade tell me the following?
1. American League East Pennant winner.
2. FedEx Cup Champion.
3. Super Bowl Champion.
4. BCS Champion.
5. Tomorrow’s Redskins vs Rams game. Skin’s plus the points?
The answer to your question is easy: party ID and participation rates in 2009, 2010,and 2011 much different than in 08.
That is the statement of purposeful self-delusion.
What you most likely have come across is a bunch of conservatives who believe Romney is a greater threat, and shorter path, to socialism than Obama.
To start with the tendency is for less advantaged factions to abandon a winning party they're being frozen out of for a more favorably disposed losing party. These movements can take decades.
Well we don't but ...
That was the spread in 2008. In 2010 the spread was no more that a point one way or the other and we smoked the Dems.
So it is hard to believe that the Dems can repeat their 2008 performance against a very pumped up GOP/Conservative/Tea party base in 2012. I don't think they can. The only ones who do just happen to run the Dem biased Polling companies.
who the heck is Dean Chambers?
2012 is unlikely to be any better.
I have done walking and calling, too, in Broward. Remember, we’re targeting soft Rs and Is....not Ds.
I am a bit encouraged, though, that there is a lot of enthusiasm for Romney...or, rather, to defeat Obamugabe. :) If people are enthusiastic about it in Deep Democrat territory like our neck of the woods, things should be much better in real battleground areas!! :)
Also, have you noticed how much that Bill Clinton commercial for Obamugabe is running on all the local tv stations?? If the communist has to run that many commercials down here, you know he is hurting—he has to convince people down here, who are already Democrat, to vote for him....
The problem is you imagine that you can win an election by sitting on your thumbs ~ and insulting the very people whose votes you need.
It just doesn't work like that!
2012 will NOT be like 2010. Republican’s will not enjoy the same level of participation advantage.
Well Rasmussen polls for it and professional political analysis and campaign strategists study voter registration numbers religiously
There is no data anywhere that validates this assumption of massive Democrat turnout superiority. The data varys both state by state and pollster to pollster but currently it suggest either a slight lead for Dems, a dead even heat or a slight lead for Repbs. Obama did not even do 8% better then McCain in 2008 so it is an absurd number
Anyone really think Obama is going to do better in 2012 then he did in 2008?
Maybe but it will also not be like 2008 which is what all the pollsters are assuming in creating their polling sample
Here is a pretty good measurement of party strength by state. You might want to consult this to decide if a state poll is reasonable
Nope..they'll pretty much stay home in their parents basement this time around.....the thrill is gone...Obama didn't give them anything....
lets try this scenario. if Romney gets 100% of the White Vote, he wins 70/30. even if Romney gets 60% of the White Vote(which is what is expected) Romney wins hands down!!!
Number of Republicans vs. Democrats Reaches Record High (Rasmussen) Aug ‘12 +4.3%, Nov ‘10 +1.3%, Nov ‘08 -7.6%, Nov ‘04 -1.6%
Source and link, please.
As long as enthusiasm remains higher or is even with the Dems, the GOP and Romney are in good shape to win.
” On the other hand, I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago.”
Good point. However, very doubtful the twenty somethings will fall in line for any new, ship off to war hype, George Bush on steroids, or HillaryRomneyExtortionCare. So break even on that demographic.
Many voters may perceive the so called GOP as hyjacked with a plant.
You are very welcome. But compared to the service of those who really matter mine is pretty small.
Oh dear Lord yes. My itch to punch Bill Clinton in the nose started to flare up again. I so hoped that he would just go away and take care of his health.
The problem with this thinking is that Gallup doesnt do the secret sauce thing like the other polls. It’s a random sample. and if it came up more Dem, that may mean there are more Dems in the universe of voters.
It’s not been skewed to start with. That said, they do RV, not LV polls, and there is a skew from that.
I hope O loses big, but remember in 2008 when the polls were showing McCain down? The polls turned out about right.
Believe it or not, I think Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, certainly, Illinois are are in play for Romney/Ryan!!! Long shots, but....in play!!! Of course, if New York ever tightens, it will be political slaughter for both Obama and the entire Democrat Party, all America haters & traitors. Want to get a great glimpse of the Obama future, go see, “2016: Obama’s America”. If you are not frightened now, you will be, after you view this excellent and truthful movie!!! All Americans should see this flick.