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New Michigan Pol: 0 46%, R 44%
RCP ^

Posted on 09/16/2012 10:50:15 AM PDT by Arthurio

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of

electorate) – 1156 Respondents MOE +/- 2.88%

Question 1: The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

(President Barack Obama): 45.49%

(Governor Mitt Romney): 43.65%

(Another candidate): 5.48%

(Undecided): 5.38%

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; mi2012

1 posted on 09/16/2012 10:50:15 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

If Michigan is competitive for Romney, 0bama is toast...


2 posted on 09/16/2012 10:52:18 AM PDT by sargon
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To: Arthurio

Trivial but it is interesting that they round 45.49 up to 46.


3 posted on 09/16/2012 10:54:52 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: Arthurio

I notice they didn’t even ask if the person being polled was a registered voter, let alone ‘likely to vote this fall’.


4 posted on 09/16/2012 10:57:49 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Liberals, at their core, are aggressive & dangerous to everyone around them,)
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To: Arthurio

Just think if Romney and Ryan actually got passionate on the campaign trail. As is, not much fire in the belly.

Maybe they should ask Sarah to campaign with them.

Or Donald Trump, he could have a whiteboard with all Obama’s failures and yell “You’re fired!”

Gotta get the base pumped up, guys.


5 posted on 09/16/2012 11:00:05 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Balding_Eagle
I notice they didn’t even ask if the person being polled was a registered voter, let alone ‘likely to vote this fall’.

If this is an adults poll, Obama is REALLY toast. In either event, if Obama is only up 2 in Michigan, it's advantage Romney right now.

Michigan is probably a tier 2 state in any election strategy.

6 posted on 09/16/2012 11:02:57 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: Arthurio
If 2/3 of the "undecided" and "another candidate" voters (Johnson is not going to poll that high in a competitive state) break for Romney, he wins Michigan with 50.89%.
7 posted on 09/16/2012 11:04:10 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Balding_Eagle

question 13:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican
or a Tea Party member?
(IF DEM) Do you consider yourself a solid Democrat or leaning Democrat?
(IF REP) Do you consider yourself a solid Republican, leaning Republican or a Tea
Party Republican?

1. (Solid Democrat): 28.74%
2. (Leaning Democrat): 13.25%
Total Democrats 41.99%
3. (Independent): 24.94%
4. (Solid Republican): 19.05%
5. (Leaning Republican): 8.74%
6. (Tea Party Republican): 5.28%
Total Republicans 33.07%


8 posted on 09/16/2012 11:05:03 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: Arthurio

Overwhelmingly women +16% and Democrats +9% sampled.

And notice how the left names the leftist ballot proposals. That is slimy; Clean Energy initiative, Protect Our Jobs, The Michigan Alliance for Prosperity. Why not call them all; Mom and Hot Apple Pie,


9 posted on 09/16/2012 11:05:38 AM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: Arthurio

If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?


10 posted on 09/16/2012 11:07:49 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Arthurio

If that poll is valid the undecided should give it to R.


11 posted on 09/16/2012 11:09:17 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Arthurio

Wow. Was this one of the states that Romney considered “in-play” as in going to spend money here?


12 posted on 09/16/2012 11:15:10 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: barmag25

Certainly this is an encouraging poll. Winning Michigan would compensate for the loss of Virginia or Ohio.

Given the oversampling, it is very encouraging. One reason Romney might be doing better in Michigan than Ohio is family history. It is of course odd that Obama is not down big in coal states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio.


13 posted on 09/16/2012 11:17:29 AM PDT by JLS
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To: Arthurio
Interesting as nearly 11% of the vote is not accounted for.

For example, that 5.48% listed as "prefer another candidate?" Who? Many of us prefer another candidate but the only choices are Romney and Obama. On November 6, those people are going to have to choose between the two of them. These voters have apparently already decided not to support the incumbent so they are Romney's to win.

Another 5.38% are undecided. Again, these are mostly Romney's votes. Historically, undecideds break for the challenger at least 2-1 margin. In this election, I'm thinking it will be more like a 4-1 or 5-1 margin due to the piss-poor performance of the incumbent. If you aren't already in Obama's camp (and either collecting food stamps or living off daddy's trust fund), then you will never be.

The vast majority of this 11% will go to Romney. If this poll is accurate, Obama is going to lose Michigan.

14 posted on 09/16/2012 11:18:53 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: JLS

I think R/R will win Ohio, Virginia, and Penn.


15 posted on 09/16/2012 11:21:49 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: Arthurio
Romney being close in MI doesn’t bode well for Osama nationwide...unless,perhaps,there's some degree of “favorite son” situation involved.
16 posted on 09/16/2012 11:24:58 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: barmag25

I tend to think you are right. I am pretty confident about Virginia and Ohio. I am least confident about Pennsylvania.


17 posted on 09/16/2012 11:25:16 AM PDT by JLS
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To: JLS

I just think that because How much oversampling is being done in these states. The dems always tell us what they are afraid of. Losing these states are what they are afraid of.

I think poll manipulation is their last hope. Suppress votes for R/R by making the voters feel like its a lost cause and Obama has already won.

I have a lot of relatives in Ohio. My brother told me that nobody he works with is voting for Obama this time. And he said this from asking around at an IBEW union meeting.

He works as a boiler operator in a coal fired power plant. Those guys are siding with R/R and the coal miners.


18 posted on 09/16/2012 11:34:30 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: NYRepublican72
They didn't specify likely voters. In addition, if you consider the gross oversampling of Obama's base and the well known phenom of the "Shy Republican," Obama could be in serious trouble.
19 posted on 09/16/2012 11:37:33 AM PDT by stormhill
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To: barmag25

Romney doesnt have a chance in heck of winning Penn.


20 posted on 09/16/2012 11:37:43 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: Arthurio

Whatever happened to that whole thing a week or two back about Romney abandoning MI?


21 posted on 09/16/2012 11:39:49 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: barmag25

I saw that, but that doesn’t answer the questions; are you registered, and are you planning on voting.


22 posted on 09/16/2012 11:42:10 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Liberals, at their core, are aggressive & dangerous to everyone around them,)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I think it can be done. I think there are some states R/R will win that will surprise everybody.


23 posted on 09/16/2012 11:49:31 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: Arthurio

So why does RCP still have Michigan as a “Lean 0bama” state???? A two point lead to me means “tossup”.


24 posted on 09/16/2012 11:50:58 AM PDT by GR_Jr. ("On Nov.6 I guess I will swallow that bitter pill called Mitt Romney...only to stop 0bama")
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To: BlueStateRightist

As I recall, last couple of OH polls we’re split, but when adjusted for 2012 levels, Romney is up at about the MOE.


25 posted on 09/16/2012 12:02:47 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: barmag25
Interesting. Look at these numbers:

3. (Independent): 24.94%
4. (Solid Republican): 19.05%
5. (Leaning Republican): 8.74%
6. (Tea Party Republican): 5.28%

All of the solid Republicans I know are also Tea Party supporters. This numbering makes it look like the Tea Party is a separate entity which it is NOT. I am originally from Michigan, and I know that if you claim to be an Independent in Michigan (or anywhere else for that matter) that means you don't like the democrats and you are looking closely at the Republicans. These are all numbers which favor Republicans.

Therefore, when you add these numbers up you get 58.01%

If you take out the 4% margin of error you get 54.01%

The Lib pollsters are twisting their panties trying to make it look like their boy ain't a goner.

26 posted on 09/16/2012 12:06:52 PM PDT by Slyfox
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To: SamAdams76
If this poll is accurate, Obama is going to lose Michigan.

Since Oct 10' I have been saying watch Michigan, I stand by it...

27 posted on 09/16/2012 12:08:34 PM PDT by taildragger (( Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: All

I read an article last week that the Romney’s team has pulled out all ads in Michigan (where they’re more likely to lose) and increasing more ads in Wisconsin (where they’re more likely to win).

So I think the RCP poll was may be part of a plan by the Dems to get Romney to pour more money into advertisement in Michigan.

I could be wrong, but I’m just hoping Michigan would vote for Romney in November.


28 posted on 09/16/2012 12:11:36 PM PDT by imchris
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To: Arthurio

All signs point to a Romney victory in some of the lean-Obama states.


29 posted on 09/16/2012 12:20:02 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Proud2BeRight

Make that D +11. This is overtly fraudulent.


30 posted on 09/16/2012 12:22:44 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: Arthurio

These are the polls that have any relevance. We don’t go by the popular vote, we go by the Electoral College. Just ask Al Gore.


31 posted on 09/16/2012 12:25:50 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: imchris
I read an article last week that the Romney’s team has pulled out all ads in Michigan (where they’re more likely to lose) and increasing more ads in Wisconsin (where they’re more likely to win).

The Romney campaign pulled all its ads, everywhere, during the Democrat convention. This is standard practice and not indicative of anything.

A news outlet chose to report the matter as if Romney was conceding in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

In other words, you got gulled by some MSM propaganda...

32 posted on 09/16/2012 12:25:50 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: okie01
The Romney campaign pulled all its ads, everywhere, during the Democrat convention. This is standard practice and not indicative of anything.

Are the RATs equally as considerate (or stupid)

33 posted on 09/16/2012 12:29:26 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
Are the RATs equally as considerate (or stupid)

Don't be ridiculous. Of course not.

However, it may well be a good tactic to withdraw your advertising while the opposition is commanding the stage.

Your ads simply aren't going to get the same kind of attention that they'd receive in a normal week -- so, it's realistic to reserve the funds and expend them when the ads will be more effective.

My background is in advertising, so I understand the circumstances. Personally, though, I'd want to consider loading up during the Democrat's convention week -- and spending heavily during the actual coverage of the opposing convention on especially produced, highly provocative messages.

But that would be way beyond the imaginations of most political consultants...

34 posted on 09/16/2012 12:43:48 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: Springman; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; madison10; ...
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
35 posted on 09/16/2012 12:46:51 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: okie01
especially produced, highly provocative messages.

How about ads telling the public what the RATs are going to say, what it means and what they are not saying. Exposing their blatant lies even before they tell them.

And then directing the public to watch it so they can see for themselves.

36 posted on 09/16/2012 12:50:16 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate Republicans Freed the Slaves Month.)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER
How about ads telling the public what the RATs are going to say, what it means and what they are not saying. Exposing their blatant lies even before they tell them.

I said "provocative", not "preachy".

However, the subject was approached, it would have to be done with biting humor.

Ideally, you would want the audience looking forward to the next one.

Out-Alinsky the Alinskyites...

37 posted on 09/16/2012 1:05:36 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: Proud2BeRight

Good point. Especially when it’s this close, it’s not so trivial.


38 posted on 09/16/2012 1:24:13 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: NoobRep

There’s a Romney billboard on I-96 in Livingston County, Michigan. I can’t remember seeing billboards for McCain or Bush in Michigan. I’m seeing a lot of “Take Back Our Country in November” signs as well, especially in Grand Rapids.


39 posted on 09/16/2012 1:27:22 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: BlueStateRightist

Because the strongholds of Ohio are Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland. The majority of Ohio is conservative, but we can’t get past these urban cities and their Democratic voters. Plus, I’m ashamed to say this, but my fellow Buckeyes are stupid.


40 posted on 09/16/2012 1:46:24 PM PDT by Catsrus
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To: barmag25
I have a lot of relatives in Ohio.

Same here. My Dad lives in SE Ohio, and he doesn't know ANYONE who supports 0. He was a big union guy, and knows a lot of other union guys who will NOT vote 0 this time. Most of his surviving family lives there, and none of them are voting 0 this time - his brothers are all big union guys, too.

All of these people supported 0 last time, except Dad who always votes for whomever the NRA endorses. :)

41 posted on 09/16/2012 2:21:19 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
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To: Catsrus
Because the strongholds of Ohio are Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Are you sure about Cincy? I don't think it has fallen yet. 2008 was an outlier - southern Ohio Repubs voted 0 that year in large numbers. It won't happen this time.

I think the only lib strongholds in OH are Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo. Otherwise, all conservative. Now, I am just going by what I remember. I left Dayton in 1996 and knew 2 Democrat voters (both stoners).

42 posted on 09/16/2012 2:32:44 PM PDT by America_Right (Remember, Republicans have a lot more in common with Democrats than they do with Tea Partiers.)
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To: BlueStateRightist
If MI is close why aren’t R/R killing in OH?

I don't care what anybody says, the polls this year are the strangest I've seen. It's not "omg McCain's gonna win" denial that I had in 2008, the polls are strange even when taken at face value. If O is winning MI by only 1.5%, then R is going to win OH, VA, FL, WI, CO, etc., period.

It does seem like that almost every state is showing a foundation for a blowout, except for a few battleground states. Have seen some competitive NJ + CT polls as well.

IMO, one of three explanations are possible:

1. For whatever reason, Obama is doing way better than Romney in the battlegrounds, enough to move about 10-15% of the electorate that would normally vote for Romney.
2. Polls in the battleground states are inaccurate because of pollster bias. Generally it's not NYT that's polling in second and third tier strategy states.
3. Voter exposure and fatigue, or lack thereof, disproportionately affects poll responses. I hear people are getting up to 10 calls from Obama + Romney in the battlegrounds. In that case, you can choose which are the more representative polls, the battlegrounds or the non-battlegrounds.
43 posted on 09/16/2012 2:43:33 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: Arthurio

Was this one poll or an average of polls?


44 posted on 09/16/2012 2:50:44 PM PDT by aheckle
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To: Cruising For Freedom
I agree that the polls are wackier than usual this year. How can a Republican be down 2 in MI but down 5 in OH? It's just not possible due to demographics alone. I think these battleground polls have a lot of special sauce in them. Oversampling Dems and over-inflating the undecided/prefer another candidate column. I have a feeling that anybody who says "I'm not crazy about Romney but I suppose I'll vote for him because it sure won't be Obama" are getting put into that column, taking votes away from Romney and making it look better for Obama.

I've seen outlier polls have that Romney within 5 in NJ and I'd like to see a reliable poll for MA. I think that due to the Scott Brown senate race and the hometown factor for Romney, Massachusetts is going to be much closer for Romney than people would think.

The voter turnout in 2008 was D+7 and the polls we are seeing are weighted that way. Fact is, the 2012 turnout is going to be more like R+2 (based on 2010) and that is a 9 point swing towards Romney that is not being reflected in these bogus polls.

45 posted on 09/16/2012 2:56:13 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SamAdams76

Hugh Hewitt had an excellent interview with the Marist pollster, which answers a lot of allegations about bias: http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6ae5804c-e638-4ace-951b-8f36ec71e977 (Note, he implies ARG+Ras don’t use cell phones. ARG uses cell phones, Ras uses a selectively tailored online focus group to make up for cell phones.)

I don’t see any reason for this guy to intentionally lie + fudge his Marist polls. I think that for whatever reason, pollsters are really calling and getting ridiculous D+10 unweighted samples in the battlegrounds.

However, in 2008, the huge D weightings were precedented by a large number of “red flags” supporting their veracity. Massively increased D registration, massive D enthusiasm, large numbers of Republicans crossing over to vote for Obama. None of these signs are present this year.

IMO, it’s at least partially voter fatigue from getting 10 calls from O+R campaigns a day, that prevents Republicans from being reached in battlegrounds.

I’ve heard the same anecdotal stories out of MA as well. Perhaps it’s best that nobody seriously polls MA lest that the media try and make a demoralizing campaign out of it.


46 posted on 09/16/2012 3:05:04 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom
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To: BlueStateRightist

That is a great question.

Polling variances is a part of the equation.


47 posted on 09/16/2012 3:27:09 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: JLS

We aren’t going to lose Ohio or Vir.


48 posted on 09/16/2012 6:53:31 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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