Skip to comments.Gallup 7 Day Tracking Trend
Posted on 09/16/2012 10:08:57 PM PDT by Positive
I too have been watching the polls at Real Clear Politics.
I must admit that I have been concerned about what seems to have been the trend. But I haven't bothered to scrutinize the items closely.
Tonight I took a close look at the Gallup Tracking Poll and realized that the data are available in greater depth than I realized.
Of course we know that it is a rolling average of the last 7 days. We know that it is 3050 Registered Voters, unlike Rassmussens Likely Voters.
When I clicked on the Gallup poll I realized for the first time, that each data point is available, even for download.
So I am pleased to see that the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.
The 7 days ending 9/4 - first day of DNC was Øbama 47-46.
Ending 9/5, Slick Willies speech, was Øbama 47 - 46.
Ending 9/6, Øbama's Lieathon, Øbama 48-45.
Ending 9/7, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/8, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/9, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/10, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/11, Øbama 50 - 43.
Ending 9/12, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/13, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/14, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/15, Øbama 48 - 45.
So during this period, Øbama's lead has been 1,1,3,4,5,5,6,7 - then - 6,5,4,3.
There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama's grip is slipping.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Romney/Ryan will win. No doubt about it.
I await the debates.
It would be nice if Gallup would bother to try and do a realistic voter split rather than the +5 or more dem that they do
Gallup lost all credibility when they answered Axelrod’s call.
I’m voting Ryan/Romney.......just had to
There could be lots of cross-currents.
I expect Obama to get sucked out in the under tow of the lowering sea levels that he never raised.
I am a huge poll/number junkie and I sign up on FR every 4 years just to get involved in the poll discussions.
But I’m getting very, very close to just giving up on polls altogether.
Too politicized like everything else IMO.
The coup d’ grace will be the debates. The finishing blow will come when Ryan takes on Biden. Chop! Chop!
“I expect Obama to get sucked out in the under tow of his lowered sea levels.”
Sorry but it’s late
“There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama’s grip is slipping.”
And given the “enthusiasm gap” strongly in favor of Romney (or ABO), the number of “likely” voters will lean much more in favor of Romney than the registered voters.
I think the reason Romney is playing it safe (not being too specific) is because he understands that this vote is between Obama and “anybody but Obama”, so he doesn’t have to do much other than not screw up.
This strategy worked rather well for Obama in 2008. You couldn’t pin him down on anything. Whatever question came his way, the answer was always the same - hope and change.
I don’t think 0bama is up big, but I do think if the election were today he’d win narrowly in the popular vote, but would kill Romney in the Electoral College. I only see Romney picking up NC and IN from 2008. I think he still has time to take back FL and VA, but I’m not feeling good about his chances anywhere else at this point.
“I await the debates.”
Yup. Even the stacked lib moderators won’t be able to save p resident Jarjar.
The thought of obama winning reelection makes me vomit, I am going to tell you I do not think he will lose.
I also think, when he wins there will be a rebellion.
Thanks for the post and an in insightful analysis. I have have to give credit where it is due for getting the verb/subject agreement correct. Frequently otherwise intelligent people use phrases such as "the data is". It's a common misuse similar to "the media is". I enjoy the high quality of articles here on Free Republic and appreciate your post.
“Yeah, the debates, the Mid-East, Iran”
I’m concerned that there is a point where such a crisis could hurt Obama (perhaps where we are now) but if things were to worsen (with the exception of hostage taking A LA Jimmy Carter) there’s a point where even though they are disappointed in Obama’s foreign policy “accomplishments” they will decide to vote on keeping the current administration in power thinking that it would be the best way to deal with an ongoing crisis/war.
Romney is good in debates.
Obama is good at speeches read from teleprompters.
The script for the debate outcomes is already written. After each debate the media will unanimously say Obama won. By how much, will depend on the network.
True enough, but I bet Romney and Ryan cut deep.
I am glad the election is seven weeks away and we still have the debates. If the election were today, I just don’t know how it would turn out.
I agree with you that Romney is very good in debates, yet the media doesn’t give Romney credit for a damn thing, all they do is repeat the Anti Romney propoganda, as if it’s gospel, and that includes Fox News. I am tired of these people with the Hitleresque mentality, that if you repeat a lie enough, it becomes true, cause that mentality is destroying the hope for the United States, and empowering the Marxists. It’s wrong. I am waiting for Romney to settle the score. And I am tired of people saying he doesn’t have the fight in him, cause they are also liars.
Obama isn’t interested in the Mid-East, Iran, Oil, Israel, Unemployment numbers, GDP growth... If he was, he wouldn’t be spending so much time on the golf course, on the basketball court, in Hollywood, or in some cornfield in Iowa or on the Strip in Vegas. The only “job” he’s interested in is getting re-elected.
I haven’t watched fox for over 8 years other that the occasional interview.
They are just as disgusting as the rest of the MSM.
During the primary they all told us he was a shark.
Also, bear in mind that Romney has been in debate prep for a month. I have yet to hear that Obama has even practiced at all.
He’ll probably show up at the podium and say. “Candy... where is my teleprompter?”
I agree. Obama hasn't been taking any questions at new conferences for what 3 years now? That means he is outa shape. Sort of like when you really haven't been paying attention in class and the teacher asks a question.
It ought to be fun watching him stutter and sputter.
I look forwrd to it.
There is not one iota of hope obama will get another 4. Forget media spin. Media coattail is so firmly stuck to obama’s that this is a struggle of self-reservation as realization has set in that he is sinking badly. Ergo they’re flapping about like mad dogs. But by acting so obvious they’re only digging themselves deeper. Don’t doubt for a second obama is finished already.
New Mexico? Oh, Susanna...
Romney has what we didn’t believe he had in 2008. Stone cold killer instinct.
There is one thing that makes me confident.
Of the people who voted against Obama in 2008, I am very certain that none of them will cross over to vote for him this time.
But of the people who voted for him last time, we probably all know at least someone who has said they will not support him this time.
No cross-overs from our side, but at least a few from his side. In a 50-50 nation, it only takes a few to throw the election. A few jews mad about Iran or Israel, a few blacks annoyed about the gay marriage thing, a few catholics annoyed at the disrespect, a few working people annoyed at being unemployed for the last three years... A few soldiers annoyed at being commanded by an utter dink...
It only takes a few crossing over or sitting it out to throw the election the other way.
“.. the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.” That’s because they are getting ready for their run to reality.
By my calculations that's a GOP blowout.
But when you adjust for real world D/R splits, this isn't going to be close.
Of course -0- will win the debates. The Media has probably handed the questions over to the teleprompter authors by now.
“I await the debates.”
With the press in the bag for Obama the way they are and Obama’s insistence on only being interviewed when HE chooses the questions and topics, I genuinely believe that Obama will be prepped for exactly which questions are asked. Not only will the media choose questions that make “the One” look good, but I would be willing to bet that he will be given advance info as to what those “questions” will be.
Agreed. Obama has not done anything that would inspire anybody who either stayed home or voted for McCain the last time to vote for Obama this time. As you say, he has not earned any new voters. But he has alienated a bunch of people who did vote for him the last time. So I am actually fairly optimistic about Romney’s chances.
Don’t get overconfident about the debates. The leftist moderators are, as we speak, comparing notes and concocting questions to best trip up Romney. Likely, these questions are being vetted and amended by the Obama campaign. I’m dead serious.
Why Romney’s camp would allow any of these moderators is beyond me.
Why do you have to sign up every 4 years? Registration here is permanent, unless you earn a zot, or opus out.
The report is each side was able to reject one proposal from the other. Romney rejected MSNBC, Øbama rejected Fox. Leaving the rest of MSM as options. After getting Fox shut down Mitt should have offered Limbaugh (presuming his hearing could have made it work)) - his audience is much larger than CNNs - or perhaps a panel of Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck. Could also have thrown in some web based folks. Limiting options to TV is agreeing to lose.
Romney is good in debates.
Romney has become a good debater, but he had some bad ones with the conservatives running. I hope he doesn’t bet 10,000 to Obama or anything...I think that was the low point of the Romney debates. As long as he doesn’t do anything that stupid again, he should be ok.
Thats because they are getting ready for their run to reality.
Maybe, but methodology makes a difference in many ways.
For Example: Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
California had 12,000,000 voters in 2008 and Øbama won it by 25% nearly 3,000,000 votes.
So this "probability proportionate to size method" seems to give a bias toward Øbama. With huge victorys in California and New York possibly giving Øbama the popular vote total (the national poll numbers) while having no more influence on the Electoral College than a 1 vote edge.
I lose interest after elections and forget usernames/passwords.
I told you so, I was right, Just making a point, bumping my own comment.