Skip to comments.Gallup 7 Day Tracking Trend
Posted on 09/16/2012 10:08:57 PM PDT by Positive
I too have been watching the polls at Real Clear Politics.
I must admit that I have been concerned about what seems to have been the trend. But I haven't bothered to scrutinize the items closely.
Tonight I took a close look at the Gallup Tracking Poll and realized that the data are available in greater depth than I realized.
Of course we know that it is a rolling average of the last 7 days. We know that it is 3050 Registered Voters, unlike Rassmussens Likely Voters.
When I clicked on the Gallup poll I realized for the first time, that each data point is available, even for download.
So I am pleased to see that the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.
The 7 days ending 9/4 - first day of DNC was Øbama 47-46.
Ending 9/5, Slick Willies speech, was Øbama 47 - 46.
Ending 9/6, Øbama's Lieathon, Øbama 48-45.
Ending 9/7, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/8, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/9, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/10, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/11, Øbama 50 - 43.
Ending 9/12, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/13, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/14, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/15, Øbama 48 - 45.
So during this period, Øbama's lead has been 1,1,3,4,5,5,6,7 - then - 6,5,4,3.
There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama's grip is slipping.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Romney/Ryan will win. No doubt about it.
I await the debates.
It would be nice if Gallup would bother to try and do a realistic voter split rather than the +5 or more dem that they do
Gallup lost all credibility when they answered Axelrod’s call.
I’m voting Ryan/Romney.......just had to
There could be lots of cross-currents.
I expect Obama to get sucked out in the under tow of the lowering sea levels that he never raised.
I am a huge poll/number junkie and I sign up on FR every 4 years just to get involved in the poll discussions.
But I’m getting very, very close to just giving up on polls altogether.
Too politicized like everything else IMO.
The coup d’ grace will be the debates. The finishing blow will come when Ryan takes on Biden. Chop! Chop!
“I expect Obama to get sucked out in the under tow of his lowered sea levels.”
Sorry but it’s late
“There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama’s grip is slipping.”
And given the “enthusiasm gap” strongly in favor of Romney (or ABO), the number of “likely” voters will lean much more in favor of Romney than the registered voters.
I think the reason Romney is playing it safe (not being too specific) is because he understands that this vote is between Obama and “anybody but Obama”, so he doesn’t have to do much other than not screw up.
This strategy worked rather well for Obama in 2008. You couldn’t pin him down on anything. Whatever question came his way, the answer was always the same - hope and change.
I don’t think 0bama is up big, but I do think if the election were today he’d win narrowly in the popular vote, but would kill Romney in the Electoral College. I only see Romney picking up NC and IN from 2008. I think he still has time to take back FL and VA, but I’m not feeling good about his chances anywhere else at this point.
“I await the debates.”
Yup. Even the stacked lib moderators won’t be able to save p resident Jarjar.
The thought of obama winning reelection makes me vomit, I am going to tell you I do not think he will lose.
I also think, when he wins there will be a rebellion.
Thanks for the post and an in insightful analysis. I have have to give credit where it is due for getting the verb/subject agreement correct. Frequently otherwise intelligent people use phrases such as "the data is". It's a common misuse similar to "the media is". I enjoy the high quality of articles here on Free Republic and appreciate your post.
“Yeah, the debates, the Mid-East, Iran”
I’m concerned that there is a point where such a crisis could hurt Obama (perhaps where we are now) but if things were to worsen (with the exception of hostage taking A LA Jimmy Carter) there’s a point where even though they are disappointed in Obama’s foreign policy “accomplishments” they will decide to vote on keeping the current administration in power thinking that it would be the best way to deal with an ongoing crisis/war.
Romney is good in debates.
Obama is good at speeches read from teleprompters.
The script for the debate outcomes is already written. After each debate the media will unanimously say Obama won. By how much, will depend on the network.
True enough, but I bet Romney and Ryan cut deep.