Romney/Ryan will win. No doubt about it.
I await the debates.
It would be nice if Gallup would bother to try and do a realistic voter split rather than the +5 or more dem that they do
Gallup lost all credibility when they answered Axelrod’s call.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/06/gallup-doj-axelrod
I am a huge poll/number junkie and I sign up on FR every 4 years just to get involved in the poll discussions.
But I’m getting very, very close to just giving up on polls altogether.
Too politicized like everything else IMO.
The coup d’ grace will be the debates. The finishing blow will come when Ryan takes on Biden. Chop! Chop!
“There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama’s grip is slipping.”
And given the “enthusiasm gap” strongly in favor of Romney (or ABO), the number of “likely” voters will lean much more in favor of Romney than the registered voters.
I think the reason Romney is playing it safe (not being too specific) is because he understands that this vote is between Obama and “anybody but Obama”, so he doesn’t have to do much other than not screw up.
This strategy worked rather well for Obama in 2008. You couldn’t pin him down on anything. Whatever question came his way, the answer was always the same - hope and change.
I don’t think 0bama is up big, but I do think if the election were today he’d win narrowly in the popular vote, but would kill Romney in the Electoral College. I only see Romney picking up NC and IN from 2008. I think he still has time to take back FL and VA, but I’m not feeling good about his chances anywhere else at this point.
The thought of obama winning reelection makes me vomit, I am going to tell you I do not think he will lose.
I also think, when he wins there will be a rebellion.
Thanks for the post and an in insightful analysis. I have have to give credit where it is due for getting the verb/subject agreement correct. Frequently otherwise intelligent people use phrases such as "the data is". It's a common misuse similar to "the media is". I enjoy the high quality of articles here on Free Republic and appreciate your post.
There is not one iota of hope obama will get another 4. Forget media spin. Media coattail is so firmly stuck to obama’s that this is a struggle of self-reservation as realization has set in that he is sinking badly. Ergo they’re flapping about like mad dogs. But by acting so obvious they’re only digging themselves deeper. Don’t doubt for a second obama is finished already.
There is one thing that makes me confident.
Of the people who voted against Obama in 2008, I am very certain that none of them will cross over to vote for him this time.
But of the people who voted for him last time, we probably all know at least someone who has said they will not support him this time.
No cross-overs from our side, but at least a few from his side. In a 50-50 nation, it only takes a few to throw the election. A few jews mad about Iran or Israel, a few blacks annoyed about the gay marriage thing, a few catholics annoyed at the disrespect, a few working people annoyed at being unemployed for the last three years... A few soldiers annoyed at being commanded by an utter dink...
It only takes a few crossing over or sitting it out to throw the election the other way.
“.. the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.” That’s because they are getting ready for their run to reality.