Skip to comments.THE POLLS: SOLID AS A ROCK (It all comes down to turnout in the end)
Posted on 09/17/2012 5:56:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There was a time when images of American embassies under siege and a United States ambassador being dragged through the streets by a baying mob would have represented serious trouble for the administration in power, especially when coupled with obvious dishonesty about the circumstances that led to the debacle and an apparent lack of foresight and prudence on the part of the State Department. If anything might be expected to move the polls, this should be it. Yet the effects of the last weeks events on polling in the presidential race have been: nothing.
Most polls bounce around because the composition of the sample is ever-changing. Pollsters will sample a lot of Democrats, and breathless headlines then allege that Obama is surgingwhile, at the same time, Romney is leading among independents by eight points. As I have written before, I think the Rasmussen poll is valuable not only because it samples likely voters, but because it uses a consistent methodology that normalizes responses according to the current mix of party affiliation, which is separately tested on a regular basis. Therefore, shifts in Rasmussens numbers probably represent real trends, rather than merely reflecting a different sample composition.
So how have Rasmussens numbers been affected by the crumbling of Barack Obamas foreign policy? They havent been. At all. Today, Romney leads Obama 47%-46%, not a significantly different finding from those that preceded Obamas foreign policy disasters.
How can this be? I think it is a manifestation of the frequently-commented-upon polarization of the electorate. As I wrote here, this election shouldnt be close, on paper, given Obamas record of abject failure. But so many Americans are now cashing federal checks that self-interest drives many millions to vote Democrat, regardless of the public interest. Another factor is at work, too: more than ever, party affiliation reflects not so much empirical judgments about public policy issues, but deep-seated cultural affinity. As I noted here, the extent to which regular church attendance, or the lack thereof, is a predictor of presidential preference is shocking.
So, when you put those elements together, it seems that fewer and fewer votes are up for grabs. I can relate: it is difficult to imagine circumstances that would cause me to vote for a Democrat for any office. For better or worse, and for good reasons or bad, an enormous number of Americans feel that way. The result is that there are many millions who would rather vote for four more years of failure than vote for a Republican. More evidence of incompetence, whether on the economy or foreign policy, doesnt sway their determination to vote Democrat.
The conventional wisdom is that the presidential debates are the next events that could shift significant numbers of votes. Maybe, but I doubt it. I will be surprised if the debates have more than a small and transient impact. Given the reasons why most voters align with one party or the other, something as mundane as a discussion of public policy isnt likely to have much effect.
If all of that is correct, and given that the election now stands within the margin of error in any competent polling, it will come down to which side does the better job of turning out the members of its tribe. We can only hope that the Obama administrations comprehensive failure dampens the enthusiasm of at least a handful of those whose monetary interest or cultural affinity normally leads them to pull the lever for Democrats.
Yes and yes
I am 100% confident our side will turn out. I think in the end many of theirs will stay home (or in the privacy of the ballot box vote their conscience)
Why romney released that Video today ? to motivate the base even more?
Then it’s Romney 53% Obama 47% on Election Day.
Then its Romney 53% Obama 47% on Election Day. So all that remains to be known is how the Electoral Votes shake out.
Give it a bit more time for this to sink in. It takes a while for dems who are somewhat open to a switch to be willing to say so in a poll.
He is absolutely correct and something I’ve been pointing out as well. There is nothing that will sway the 45% of voters who are firmly entrenched in Obamas camp or the 45% who are in the anti-obama camp. The 10% in the middle are morons who will probably split their vote. SO it is totally dependenton turnout. Romney needs to suppress Obama turnout using social issues and enhance his own turnout using economic issues.
Obama is absolutely protected by the MSM
There are all of the "Independents" who just like pretending they are independent-minded when in fact they are basically lifelong Democrats or Republicans.
There are all of those idiots who want to vote for the winner (like those who buy a ticket for the favorite in the Kentucky Derby even when the odds are below 1:1) who will vote for Obama or Romney, not because they prefer either, but because they want to say they voted for the winner.
It is truly sad.
NOT only is this election about kicking out the muslim communist out of the WH but ALSO a vote against the mediaWHORES WHO ARE TRYING THEIR DARNEST TO SHAPE this race for ObozO! WE MUST NOT FAIL!!
The leftist MOTHER JONES found and released the tape I think, or something
The freeloaders and moochers are by their very nature LAZY and will simply not beat the effort made by the 53% of those who pay for their share to get out and vote. WE WIN!
You already have CWII, in all but name.
Jimmy Carter’s grandson is claiming credit for the video. He didnt shoot it, but claims to have obtained it from the person who did.
That’s how dhimmocraps are buying people and that’s how tyrany comes .
In addition they also buy the illegal immigrant crowds with amnysties and benefits .
This is a complete fraud . These guys are fake democrats and true liberal fascists . They must be kicked out of power...or you are done
There are no polls left in Oregon and much of Washington anymore. All elections are “vote by mail”.
I disagree with this point. I think the polarization is related to where voters get their information. To the extent they venture beyond the MSM is also the extent to which they are open to other than a liberal worldview.
I have a feeling from talking with some oldtimer (65+) democrats who “will never vote republican”, when going to the poll this year they will leave the presidential box unmarked.
Not sure how wide spread this is, but in my little corner it seems prevalent. Of course, they will still be marking “D” down the column on every other race, but I think they see what the Communist in Chief is doing to America.
You’re kidding, right? First I’ve heard this...
My mother-in-law just turned 80 this August and she has been living in Oregon 60+ years...she told my husband that this year, Oregon MAY just be in play for Romney!
Finally a sensible article about the polls.
But, Romney is not allowed to call out the 49% who deposit the checks.
Well, the Democrats have the taker and godless votes locked up; what else is new.
Have no fear - remember 2010 and remember CHIK-FIL-A!
If Rush is right then around election time they`ll have no choice but to tell the truth or face irrelevancy after the fact that they screwed up so bad becomes plain to see. Keep up the fight and don`t give up yet, it ain`t over till it`s over.
No, it was in one of the other threads about the video. I can’t copy/paste right now, so I can’t easily link it. I do remember the URL was to twitchy.com.
Spot on. The growing numbers of the parasitic class have grown so quickly and substantially, the percentage of those locked in for Obama are no less than 46 or 47 percent. That's why there won't be a landslide for Romney or any GOP presidential candidate ever again, without the wildcard of criminal charges, nuclear war, etc.
In my travels, I’m finding it difficult to find ANYBODY saying ANYTHING nice about Obummer.
I think most minds are already made up.
And the consensus opinion is to throw the bum out!
Too bad we don’t have a real conservative candidate, with a real spine and a flamethrower for a mouth, but Romney will have to do. Bring on November!
Hinderaker is onto something but I think it’s even bigger and deeper than he frames it here. I think what’s happened is that America is now confronting the age old question that’s had the West racking its collective brain for the last 2500 years or so. Which is, should men be free or should they be subject to the enlightened will of their betters? Our political parties have evolved such that they come down on opposite sides of this question more consistently and over a broader range of issues than ever before. The two answers can’t be reconciled and so we have two totally dug in camps.
So, I think this is about Big Stuff, and I don’t know how a civilization resolves this sort of thing. I guess through historical trial and error. What’s dismaying is that America had it all figured out. We had answered the question clearly and confidently and could have avoided the tumult. But we’ve gone sort of wobbly on our principles and so now we’re being dragged into it.
Convincing the undecideds is very important as well. If you get one of them, that’s like getting two votes, one away from the other guy, and one for your guy. Getting out the vote is only “one” vote, since these were never going to vote for the other guy anyway.
So if the GOP and Dem turnout is roughly the same, then the undecideds get decide the issue.
So both getting out the vote and convincing undecideds is important.