MRG Michigan Poll: Obama 47.5, Romney 42.3 (600LV; 9/10-9/14)

Michigan Live ^ | 9/18/12 | MRG

[Ravi]

LANSING, MI - President Barack Obama is slightly leading challenger Mitt Romney in the latest poll of likely Michigan voters.

The Marketing Resource Group poll of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 10 through Friday and given to MLive, showed the Democratic incumbent and Vice President Joe Biden with 47.5 percent and his Republican rival and running mate Paul Ryan with 42.3 percent. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning Obama had a slight edge.

Eight percent were undecided.

[pgkdan]

On another note, do you know how the independents split in 2008 in the general election? Did they go for Obama or McCain?

I really don't know but 2008 is an anomoly in many ways.
A. The 'One' was running
B. McCain was awful
C.The ecomony tanked
D. McCain spectacularly suspended his campaign to rush back to DC and prance around like an ineffective self important peacock
E. The GOP candidate refused to attack the most obviously flawed rat candidate in the hsitory of the Republic.

I really don't think we can draw parallels.

[LS]

D/R splits please? Meaningless now without the subset of how many they polled vs. party affiliation in 2010.

[pgkdan]

I always feel MI is one of those states that looks like its a get for Republicans but in the end always winds up back to Dem by five or six points. Same with PA.

It will always be that way as long as Wayne county in MI and Phil and Pitt in PA get to report last.

[crosslink]

II. On political issues, do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat
conservative, moderate, somewhat liberal or very liberal?
Very Conservative ...........................................................18%
Somewhat Conservative .................................................23%
Moderate ...........................................................................29%
Somewhat Liberal ............................................................18%
Very Liberal ........................................................................9%
Ref/DK (Volunteered) ......................................................3%
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ..............................................41%
TOTAL LIBERAL.............................................................27%
III. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a a. Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or a not very
strong (Democrat/Republican)?
Strong Democrat ................................................23%
Not Very Strong Democrat...............................11%
Strong Republican .............................................19%
Not Very Strong Republican............................11%
(IF DON’T KNOW OR REFUSED, CIRCLE
“Not Very Strong” Rep. or Dem)
b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or the
Democratic Party?
Closer to Republican Party...............................13%
Neither/Don’t Know ..........................................8%
Closer to Democratic Party ..............................14%
Repeats “Other” Affiliation................................1%
Refuses Both Questions ......................................1%
Expresses No Interest in or
Knowledge of Politics .........................................1%
TOTAL DEMOCRATS ....................................................34%
TOTAL INDEPENDENTS ..............................................34%
TOTAL REPUBLICANS..................................................30%

[Ravi]

I didn’t look. It may or may not be there.

[Ravi]

seems about right.

[crosslink]

Which group would you say comes closest to sharing your own opinions
about government and politics: (ROTATE: the Tea Party movement or the
Occupy Wall Street movement)?
(IF DON’T KNOW, NEITHER OR REFUSED, ASK: Which one do you
lean toward?)
Tea Party............................................................................34%
Lean Tea Party....................................................................6%
Occupy Wall Street ..........................................................26%
Lean Occupy Wall Street...................................................3%
Neither (Volunteered) .....................................................19%
Don’t Know (Volunteered) .............................................14%
Refused (Volunteered) ......................................................1%
TOTAL TEA PARTY........................................................39%
TOTAL OCCUPY WALL STREET ................................29%

[SoFloFreeper]

If Romney thinks he can win there, he’ll start advertising.

[crosslink]

I agree, more info, reporter very nice and sent me the whole poll, he is now asking me about polling and if I could help him in the future LOL.
Thinking of the last few elections in which you voted, which answer best
describes how you voted for state and local offices such as governor and senator?
(ROTATE CHOICES 1 THROUGH 7; TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)
Straight Democratic .........................................................17%
Mostly Democratic...........................................................21%
A Few More Democrats Than Republicans....................6%
About Equally For Both Parties .....................................12%
A Few More Republicans Than Democrats....................7%
Mostly Republican ...........................................................19%
Straight Republican .........................................................16%
Other (Volunteered)...........................................................2%
Never Voted (Volunteered) ..............................................1%
Ref/DK (Volunteered) ......................................................2%
TOTAL BEHAVIORAL DEMOCRATS ........................38%
TOTAL TICKET SPLITTERS ..........................................24%
TOTAL BEHAVIORAL REPUBLICANS......................34%

[crosslink]

XIII. What is your occupation? (ASK AS AN OPEN-ENDED QUESTION AND
RECORD ANSWER IN MARGIN. DO NOT READ CATEGORIES.)
White Collar—Upper, Business/Professional .............17%
White Collar—Lower, Clerical/Sales..............................9%
Blue Collar—Upper, Skilled Trade/Foreman .............10%
Blue Collar—Lower, Operative/Laborer .......................7%
Business Owner..................................................................3%
Governmental Employee ..................................................5%
Farmer/Rancher.................................................................1%
Housewife/Homemaker...................................................8%
Student.................................................................................4%
Unemployed/Laid Off ......................................................5%
Retired................................................................................28%
Other/Ref/DK (Volunteered)..........................................5%
XIV. Which of the following income groups include your TOTAL FAMILY INCOME
in 2011 before taxes? Just stop me when I get to the correct category.
(READ A-H)
A. $0 to 10,000 (9,999).....................................................4%
B. $10,000 to 20,000 (19,999)..........................................6%
C. $20,000 to 30,000 (29,999)..........................................7%
D. $30,000 to 40,000 (39,999)..........................................9%
E. $40,000 to 50,000 (49,999)..........................................8%
F. $50,000 to 75,000 (74,999)........................................12%
G. $75,000 to 100,000 (99,999)......................................13%
H. Over $100,000...........................................................16%
Ref/DK (Volunteered)............................................25%
That completes our interview. Thank you for sharing your opinions.
XV. Gender (BY OBSERVATION: DO NOT ASK)
Male....................................................................................48%
Female................................................................................52%

[SoFloFreeper]

Obamugabe is spending tons of money in south Florida....running an ad of Bill the sink stainer Clinton talking about how kick ass Obamugabe’s economic plan is.

Runs all the damn time.

[bmwcyle]

Detroit, where the soul comes cheap.

[crosslink]

If anyone wants all of the data I have it and can email it to you. shoot me a direct note and I will forward. This reporter is looking for some expert commentary and I am a novice.

[kempster]

I saw somwething on local news here in Michigan that says that Romney has a barrage of ads to start in Michigan on September 24th.

[ScottinVA]

From other posts, is Romney spending money anywhere?

I heard my first Romney radio ad in two weeks on the a.m. drive to work yesterday.

[Theodore R.]

Unless you count the hapless Mr. Ford, who was born in NE, no President has come from MI.

[ScottinVA]

I firmly believe NY will NOT vote for him

Won't vote for Obama or Romney?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ny/new_york_romney_vs_obama-2868.html

[ALPAPilot]

With 600 responses the margin of error is 4%.

[ScottinVA]

TOTAL DEMOCRATS ....................................................34%
TOTAL INDEPENDENTS ..............................................34%
TOTAL REPUBLICANS..................................................30%

---

How representative is that for MI? Is this sampling accurate?

[Redmen4ever]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

$2.3 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9

add: Americans for Prosperity (Kochs)

$2.2 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9

add: American Crossroads (Rove)

$1.2 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9

TOTAL: $6.7 m.

versus Obama

$7.9 million Sept. 1 to Sept. 9

WHERE?

the following is cumulative, I don’t know where money was spent by week. I’ll return to this.

CO, FL, IA, MI, MN*, NC, NH, NM*, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI
*Americans for Prosperity only

Chatter indicates that the race spending has re-focused on the following eight states:

CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, VA and WI

Plus, I’m thinking MO may become a real problem for us Assuming we keep MO, we need FL + OH + VA + any other state.