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SURVEY USA: OR 50-41 Obama (he can't even break 50 in OR!!)
Survey USA ^ | 9/18/2012 | none

Posted on 09/18/2012 8:35:00 AM PDT by LS

OR poll---no details on "likely/registered" I could find---maybe you can.

Obama up 50-41. No breakdown on D/R splits but this has to be horrible news for ZEro.

Folks, I'll say this again: if he is barely polling 50% in places like CT and OR, he's toast.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bluestates; election; obama; or2012; romney

1 posted on 09/18/2012 8:35:02 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS

how do we get romneys numbers up ?


2 posted on 09/18/2012 8:39:11 AM PDT by dalebert
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To: LS

“Folks, I’ll say this again: if he is barely polling 50% in places like CT and OR, he’s toast.”

Hence the need lately to shore up and increase the “Romney is hateful and irresponsible” vote.


3 posted on 09/18/2012 8:39:39 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: LS

Is this part of the endless trail of post-”gaffe” D+20 polls we will have to endure which show Obama increasing his ficticious “lead?”


4 posted on 09/18/2012 8:41:00 AM PDT by Jess79
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To: LS

Obama won OR 56.8%-40.4% in 2008.


5 posted on 09/18/2012 8:41:59 AM PDT by kabar
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To: LS

Party breakdown as follows:

R 34% D 41% I 26%

Oregon FReepers, is that in the ballpark?


6 posted on 09/18/2012 8:42:58 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: LS

If any one has the time to solve this:

84x + 8y + 35z = 41
10x + 87y + 42z = 50
3x + 3y + 12z = 5
3x + 2y + 11z = 5

x = GOP
y = Rats
z = Indies


7 posted on 09/18/2012 8:43:12 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: dalebert
how do we get romneys numbers up ?

Honest polling would do it.

8 posted on 09/18/2012 8:44:23 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1338 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Obama, a queer and present danger)
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To: ScottinVA

Party

2010

2008

2006

Democrat

41.7%

43.2%

38.8%

Republican

32.0%

32.3%

35.7%

Non-affiliated

20.6%

20.1%

22.1%

Others

5.7%

4.5%

4.5%

http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2010/10/democrats_have_biggest_dip_in.html


9 posted on 09/18/2012 8:44:29 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (You didn't build that. The private sector is doing fine. We tried our plan and it worked.)
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To: kabar
Obama won OR 56.8%-40.4% in 2008.

In 2012 0bama has to defend something however.

How does one defend a sh!t sandwich?

10 posted on 09/18/2012 8:44:37 AM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: dalebert

Let’s oversample Republicans and Independents and drive the Rats nuts.


11 posted on 09/18/2012 8:45:30 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: LS

Oregon doesn’t matter.
What about OH, FL, VA, etc.?


12 posted on 09/18/2012 8:47:11 AM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: ScottinVA

Is that the Party breakdown for the poll or the Party breakdown for the state registration figures?


13 posted on 09/18/2012 8:48:21 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: dalebert

Romney’s numbers are meaningless at this point. It is always about the INCUMBENT. When the incumbent is below 50% in the polls that usually spells trouble.


14 posted on 09/18/2012 8:49:48 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Perdogg

GOP = 0.343
Rats = 0.412
Indies = 0.255


15 posted on 09/18/2012 8:50:53 AM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: dalebert

Hopefully, the debates will help.


16 posted on 09/18/2012 8:51:21 AM PDT by Fawn (DEAR JESUS....PLEASE LET OBAMA LOSE.....AMEN.)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Did it for Clinton?


17 posted on 09/18/2012 8:54:05 AM PDT by dalebert
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To: EGPWS

Agreed, but Obama is going to win in Oregon. Maybe not by the same margin, but he will win. I doubt Obama or Romney will invest very much in the state in terms of media buys.


18 posted on 09/18/2012 8:54:05 AM PDT by kabar
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To: LS

I always comapre these kins of numbers to 2004:

In oregon, it was 51.4% Kerry and 47.2% Bush.

So this poll tells us that Obama is slightly less popular than Kerry, which is great news.

But it also says Romney is measurably less popular than Bush.

To me this means Romney needs to sell himself as a good choice, rather than spend all his time trying to make Obama even less popular. So, although it’s slow going, his campaign is taking the right track, much was we might like to see him criticizing Obama more.


19 posted on 09/18/2012 8:54:59 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: LS

In ‘08 Osama Obama carried OR with almost 58% of the vote.So it looks like we might have an 8 point “swing” in Communist Oregon.Taken nationwide that swing suggests that Osama Obama will have all the time he wants for golf starting early next year.


20 posted on 09/18/2012 9:02:10 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (If Obama's Reelected Imagine The Mess He'll Inherit!)
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To: edwinland
Kerry was not an incumbant.
21 posted on 09/18/2012 9:03:18 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: edwinland

Folks, it’s Oregon.

Look, let’s craft a metaphor.

Pretend the US is a living body, made of tissue like a human being.

Let’s say that California, Oregon, and Washington are the fingers of it’s left hand.

The West Coast is gangrenous at this point, and it will fall off, perhaps literally if you believe the more strident plate tectonic scientists.

WA is irretrievably blue. We haven’t had our ‘Detroit’ moment yet, but we are closer than we have been. First Boeing moved its headquarters, then it moved a new 787 line. Now SPEEA is striking (engineers and technical people). Moving principal engineering isn’t as hard as moving an assembly line, and so I see SPEEA being stupid enough to strike.

When they do, and they probably will, Boeing will wait for R’s to win the WH and Congress, and then they will convert WA state into a government contract facility.

CA is already toast. Companies are leaving there (with the exception of Silicon Valley and SF) in droves. No way they keep up with their own deficit. Public employee pensions are like something you see in Saudi Arabia - sewer workers making $160,000 for life after retiring at 50 through spiking in the last three years.

No Republican will ever, ever take a West Coast state again - ever. The idea behind this class warfare bit was to create an entitled class and pit them against the productive class. They won in the West. It’s that simple.

It will take Greek-style default to change it, and Boeing leaving WA state.

Patty Murray is what statesmanship looks like in 2012. The West is toast.


22 posted on 09/18/2012 9:03:37 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs (Does beheading qualify as 'breaking my back', in the Jeffersonian sense of the expression?)
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To: null and void
how do we get romneys numbers up ?

A little advertizing might help. Unfortunately, we're seeing no Republican ads here. Except for a few liberal bastions on Portland, Oregon is very pro-firearms. Even Defazio has to pretend to be pro-gun to get re-elected.

23 posted on 09/18/2012 9:05:30 AM PDT by aimhigh
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To: LS

well....we are just heading out into our Precincts in the next few weeks so...this COULD change.....yeah, Oregon is a liberal bastion....at least in Portland and Eugene....elsewhere...not so much.....we’ll see if the idiots wake up this year...


24 posted on 09/18/2012 9:09:18 AM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: Salvation

Oregon ping


25 posted on 09/18/2012 9:09:56 AM PDT by goodnesswins (What has happened to America?)
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To: edwinland
Yeah, but Edwin, you're comparing FINAL numbers, where people "had" to choose, with a poll two months out where they still have "undecided" "other" and things like that.

However, if you look at 2008, Obama was at 56.7, McCain at 40!! So Romney is outperforming McCain by one and Obama is off by almost 7 points. That's an 8-point swing and we're still two months out.

26 posted on 09/18/2012 9:23:28 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: aimhigh; RinaseaofDs

Unfortunately I have to agree with RinseaofDs and give up hope. I grew up in OR4—Coos County—and there are enough die-hard yellow-dog Ds of Arkansas/West Virginia extraction who will never vote R because Lincoln was a Republican that lip service on conservative issues suffices. DeFazio is an Italian Catholic (CINO) from NJ who happened to be Jim Weaver’s chief of staff—the Catholic population in the district is under 10% and the Italian population and the percentage of people who do not hate NJ (among those who have an opinion) is even smaller.

Eventually the Arkansas/West Virginia wing will die, but the perennial strength of the liberal wing of the Republican party in Oregon—as in the NE the party has been true to its original roots to an extent—ticked of enough conservative Dems to ensure that by the time they have ceased the Californication of the state will be complete.


27 posted on 09/18/2012 10:04:22 AM PDT by Hieronymus ( (It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged. --G.K. Chesterton))
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To: LS

I think the best comparisons (when looking at State polls) are to 2004, when the election was quite close.

I agree that polls and votes are two different things, but using the previous results to calibrate the polls for a particular State can be instructive. A better thing would be a poll in that State from 2004.

Anyway, your comparison to 2008 election results has the same issue.


28 posted on 09/18/2012 11:49:52 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: LS

I think the best comparisons (when looking at State polls) are to 2004, when the election was quite close.

I agree that polls and votes are two different things, but using the previous results to calibrate the polls for a particular State can be instructive. A better thing would be a poll in that State from 2004.

Anyway, your comparison to 2008 election results has the same issue.


29 posted on 09/18/2012 11:49:52 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
"Is that the Party breakdown for the poll or the Party breakdown for the state registration figures? "

That breakdown was for the poll.

30 posted on 09/18/2012 1:20:21 PM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: LS; abcraghead; aimhigh; Archie Bunker on steroids; bicycle thug; blackie; coffeebreak; ...
If you aren't on this ping list and are interested
in articles about Oregon, please FReepmail me.

31 posted on 09/18/2012 6:03:15 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: LS

The rumor is it is a 4 pt race and some polls show it a toss up. He may lose Oregon, only one on the Left coast.

Pray for America


32 posted on 09/18/2012 7:29:17 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: bray

Love to believe it, but source for the rumor?


33 posted on 09/18/2012 8:16:04 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Fox news poll and Allen Alley.


34 posted on 09/18/2012 10:28:11 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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