Posted on 09/18/2012 8:35:00 AM PDT by LS
OR poll---no details on "likely/registered" I could find---maybe you can.
Obama up 50-41. No breakdown on D/R splits but this has to be horrible news for ZEro.
Folks, I'll say this again: if he is barely polling 50% in places like CT and OR, he's toast.
how do we get romneys numbers up ?
“Folks, I’ll say this again: if he is barely polling 50% in places like CT and OR, he’s toast.”
Hence the need lately to shore up and increase the “Romney is hateful and irresponsible” vote.
Is this part of the endless trail of post-”gaffe” D+20 polls we will have to endure which show Obama increasing his ficticious “lead?”
Obama won OR 56.8%-40.4% in 2008.
Party breakdown as follows:
R 34% D 41% I 26%
Oregon FReepers, is that in the ballpark?
If any one has the time to solve this:
84x + 8y + 35z = 41
10x + 87y + 42z = 50
3x + 3y + 12z = 5
3x + 2y + 11z = 5
x = GOP
y = Rats
z = Indies
Honest polling would do it.
Party
2010
2008
2006
Democrat
41.7%
43.2%
38.8%
Republican
32.0%
32.3%
35.7%
Non-affiliated
20.6%
20.1%
22.1%
Others
5.7%
4.5%
4.5%
http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2010/10/democrats_have_biggest_dip_in.html
In 2012 0bama has to defend something however.
How does one defend a sh!t sandwich?
Let’s oversample Republicans and Independents and drive the Rats nuts.
Oregon doesn’t matter.
What about OH, FL, VA, etc.?
Is that the Party breakdown for the poll or the Party breakdown for the state registration figures?
Romney’s numbers are meaningless at this point. It is always about the INCUMBENT. When the incumbent is below 50% in the polls that usually spells trouble.
GOP = 0.343
Rats = 0.412
Indies = 0.255
Hopefully, the debates will help.
Did it for Clinton?
Agreed, but Obama is going to win in Oregon. Maybe not by the same margin, but he will win. I doubt Obama or Romney will invest very much in the state in terms of media buys.
I always comapre these kins of numbers to 2004:
In oregon, it was 51.4% Kerry and 47.2% Bush.
So this poll tells us that Obama is slightly less popular than Kerry, which is great news.
But it also says Romney is measurably less popular than Bush.
To me this means Romney needs to sell himself as a good choice, rather than spend all his time trying to make Obama even less popular. So, although it’s slow going, his campaign is taking the right track, much was we might like to see him criticizing Obama more.
In ‘08 Osama Obama carried OR with almost 58% of the vote.So it looks like we might have an 8 point “swing” in Communist Oregon.Taken nationwide that swing suggests that Osama Obama will have all the time he wants for golf starting early next year.
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