Skip to comments.SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL SHOWS WARREN OVERTAKING BROWN FOR U.S. SENATE
Posted on 09/18/2012 9:48:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren (48 percent) has overtaken incumbent Republican Scott Brown (44 percent), in a Senate squeaker that still falls within the margin of error, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH-Boston) poll of likely general election voters in Massachusetts. Eight percent of those polled were undecided or chose someone else.
These results contrast with a Suffolk University/7NEWS poll conducted in May, when Brown led Warren 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent either undecided or choosing someone else.
Fresh off a new TV ad buy and a prime time convention speech, Elizabeth Warren has improved her popularity and overtaken Scott Brown head-to-head, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. She enters the debate phase of the Senate campaign as the slight favorite, but the race is still fluid, and to win she must avoid peaking too soon.
Meanwhile Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is lagging far behind Barack Obama in the presidential race here. Obama (64 percent) is leading Romney (31 percent) by 33 points among likely Massachusetts voters. Two other candidates will be listed on the Massachusetts ballot. Green Party nominee Jill Stein garnered 2 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson 1 percent, with 4 percent undecided.
The survey also showed a likelihood that all three ballot questions will pass, but voters only became aware of their content in July, so opinions may change.
Favorability in U.S. Senate race
Browns net favorability was +31 compared to +30 in May, virtually unchanged. Warrens jumped from +10 in May (43 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable) to +19 today (52 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable).
Browns cross-over support also is waning. In May, 24 percent of Obama voters said they would cross parties to vote for Brown, but today 19 percent said they would cross over.
The Democratic National Convention appears to have connected the dots for some voters in Massachusetts, said Paleologos. Theyve linked Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Elizabeth Warren and Congressional candidate Joseph Kennedy, whose district includes Southeastern Mass. Warren benefited not only from her own speech, but from the oratory of others, both inside and outside of Massachusetts.
One poll finding that could tip a close race back to Brown is the preference of general election voters of all parties for having one Democratic and one Republican Senator in Washington. Fifty percent said there is a benefit to having a member of each party representing Massachusetts in Washington DC, while 45 percent said it didnt matter.
Call it the party-parity-paradox, said Paleologos. Likely voters of all parties see a benefit to having Democrat John Kerry and Republican Scott Brown representing Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate.
Seventy-nine percent of likely voters supported the proposed Availability of Motor Vehicle Repair Information law, which would require auto manufacturers to allow auto owners and independent repair shops access to the same vehicle diagnostic and repair information made available to auto dealers and authorized repair facilities.
Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) supported the proposed Prescribing Medication to End Life law, which would allow Massachusetts licensed physicians to prescribe life-ending medication at the request of terminally ill patients meeting certain conditions.
And 59 percent supported the proposed Medical Use of Marijuana law, while 35 percent were opposed.
On Jan. 14, 2010, Suffolk University was the first poll using live interviews to show Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley by 4 points. Five days later, Brown won by 5 points on Election Day.
Methodology The statewide survey of 600 likely Massachusetts general election voters was conducted September 13-16, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted at 11 p.m. Monday, Sept. 17, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, or follow on Twitter @davidpaleologos.
If we could be sure of a strong majority in the Senate, I would LOVE to see Brown lose. He is a RINO traitor of the highest order, a place marker at best. He’d vote like the liberal witch anyway.
“Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted at 11 p.m. Monday, Sept. 17, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site.”
Sure. Bury internals at 11pm.
I think you will get your wish then.
I always expected that fake indianess not withstanding, her “shoot all the bankers” class warfare rhetoric would eventually carry the day in Kennedyland.
I took a class in statistics and the numbers are ALL in the way you ask the question and who you ask it of.
WAKE UP AMERICA. Don't believe it.
Truth to tell, however, Scott's recent ads are weak, sort of "don't be fooled by the negative ads run by my opponent" -- but no specifics. She accuses him of standing up for "corporate interests"; I would think he could at least remind people that while gov't issues the money, it's corporations that make everything that make having money worthwhile! ;-)
Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal lied about service in Vietnam and he got elected. Not a big deal. ‘Rats just lie.
OK, you don't like him, but I don't see how you can call him a "traitor" -- he is exactly what he ran as. He never billed himself as "severely conservative"!
He isn’t even mildly conservative.
Spoken by someone who couldn't even find Massachusetts on a map let alone give an accurate analysis of the state's politics.
This is the same crap that used to get Tip O'Neill relected for so many years.
"Yar...I always voted fa Tip. He was fowah the common guy. He was wicked pissa."
Describes your average Massachusetts voter to a "T".
We have heard it all before; Bob Dole, John McCain, and the polls were all wrong, right? We run a mushy rich guy against a communist and we can't even win a poll, let alone an election.
If Romney can not articulate a message for defeating Obozo, other than we are going to lower taxes, then we will lose this election. Early voting starts in a week or two and thirty states have this practice, so waiting for the debate to get a bounce is really dumb.
"According to financial disclosure forms Warren filed with the Senate last year, Harvard lent her between $15,000 and $50,000 in 1996. "Let me get this straight: struggling students and families pay more, so multi-millionaire Warren can pay nothing?" Browns campaign manager Jim Barnett told the Herald. "This sweetheart deal adds insult to injury for the students whose high tuition costs have already made Warren a wealthy one-percenter, and reveals yet again Professor Warrens hypocritical idea of fairness. "
Of course, Fauxcahontas Lizzie likely wouldn't even be at Harvard and a recipient of the university's largesse if she hadn't lied about being a minority.
"For the working people" my a$$.
The Tea Party came to his rescue last election. I don’t think they will beat-feet to his rescue this time. Just a hunch.
Complete, unadulterated BS.
“We know Paleface Lizzy is a liar and a thief, but she’s also stupid with no backbone, so we’re pretty sure we can get her to lie and steal for us.”
I went to a Democrat meeting in Massachusetts. A guy came up and asked me for the time. He told me that the clock on the wall was wrong. I thought the clock was right, but I looked at my watch anyway. I told the guy the clock on the wall was correct. He pulled out a gun and stole my watch and wallet. The moral of this story is....Massachusetts Democrats don’t want the truth, they want your money.
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