Elections 2012: Where Have the Conservatives & Evangelicals Gone?

The Right Sphere ^ | 09/18/2012 | Tom Dougherty

[SeekAndFind]

In an article Monday, Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney, I cited some data gleaned from multiple polls conducted within the last week that demonstrated waning support for Governor Romney from conservatives and evangelicals.

While the article was factual (see notes below about how I analyze polls) and was intended to educate readers who are Romney supporters of an alarming trend, it apparently raised a bit of a ruckus. Many readers observed the numbers were inaccurate, out of context, invalid because they failed to account for numerous factors like past voting analyses, and several even called me a Democratic shill.

Nothing could be further from the truth on any of those accounts. I am an ardent supporter of Governor Romney but I am also a political analyst and commentator, and a realist. In politicking the worst thing you can do is fail to address a challenge head-on and this is a challenge for the Romney campaign.

Not that I consider either of these to be authoritative but two articles appeared yesterday referencing a possible change in strategy within the Romney campaign and both, at varying levels, speak to the problem I espoused Monday. Politico published Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled and BuzzFeed released Romney’s New Strategy Turns Right. I’ll make no comment on either here since it is up to the campaign to decide their course of action.

Though today I’m going to delve a bit deeper into the discourse in Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney because further research clearly shows that conservatives and evangelicals are not supporting Romney at levels they supported his two immediate predecessors, John McCain and George W. Bush.

Looking at the same numbers from current polling when compared to McCain in 2008 and Bush in 2004, it’s no longer a question, it is fact that conservatives and evangelicals are not turning out for Romney.

As before, this chart includes the swing states of Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

The Romney 2012 numbers are obtained from a group of polls of likely voters conducted by pollsters with both conservative and liberal biases, and then demographically adjusted to remove/reduce party bias. The McCain 2008 and Bush 2004 numbers are derived from averaging the results of a collection of exit polls performed in 2004 and 2008 of actual voters. Here again the pollsters represent a range of conservative to liberal biases, and I do not accept at face value any exit poll but they were all remarkably close and are relevant to looking at the very apparent trends.

Notwithstanding the linear drop in support from self-described moderates, which has occurred at virtually every level of campaigning – national, state and local, and focusing on the Conservatives and Evangelicals, we see:

Romney currently has just 0.5% more support from Conservatives than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 7.1% less support from Conservatives than Bush received in 2004
Romney currently has 10.4% less support from Evangelicals than McCain received in 2008
Romney currently has 25.0% less support from Evangelicals than Bush received in 2004

Even conceding a couple points since the margin of error is greater for exit polling than phone polling of likely voters the trends do not lie or obfuscate the reality that Governor Romney is not getting the support he should from conservatives and evangelicals. Furthermore, the difference in support is so great that an increase of half of the current deficiencies would have Romney holding a comfortable lead over Obama.

I will not draw a conclusion about why and will leave that to individual readers but what is clear is it is not the undecideds or persuadables that could cost Romney the election, it’s conservatives and evangelicals.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Analyzing polling numbers is always subject to individual poll bias, registered vs. likely voters, polling methodologies such as online, robo-calls to landlines, mobile survey apps to cellphones and a plethora of other factors.

Before I use any poll in an analysis I adjust the poll using algorithms of my own that compensate for these factors and establish a baseline so every poll is considered in the same context, or as close as is reasonably possible. Also I rarely quote individual polls rather groups of polls as a weighted average.

Finally, it is true the ultimate poll occurs on Election Day but there is not a campaign in the country that does not rely on polling, both internal and public, to gauge where they are at a given time and what they should do to address the challenges and shortcomings the results dictate. That is professional politicking.

[libdestroyer]

As an evangelical myself, I can tell you that I know God is the one who puts people in places of power/authority. Our vote is inconsequential in light of God’s will.

We have a REPRESENTATIVE republic. If you continue to vote for someone because “he’s not as bad as the other guy” you will never be truly represented. Support the candidate that shares your values!

[Persevero]

Purely anecdotally, I am afraid they are going Libertarian.

Voting for a Mormon is just not sitting well, according to some friends at church and some strong Christians I know not part of my church, including some extended family.

I think R. Paul is an absolute disaster, but they believe he is a Christian. So, they support him.

I have tried to talk some out of it but don’t think I am making much headway.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: If you continue to vote for someone because “he’s not as bad as the other guy” you will never be truly represented.

As I said before, then the default is to allow the one who does not represent our values EVEN MORE, to win.

[arthurus]

They’re letting “perfect be the enemy of good”

No.

They're letting the minimum be the enemy of the unserious.

[libdestroyer]

“If the GOP wants my vote, they need to run a candidate that has a proven track record (ignore what they say, watch what they do) of being: Pro-life, pro gun, against socialized medicine, and actually reducing the size of government.

That’s my exalted standards.”

Yet we’re stuck with a candidate who has demonstrated with his actions that he is the exact opposite.

Heaven forbid we get ONE thing on our wishlist...

[GeronL]

Since Todd Akin (92+% ACU Rating) isn’t moderate enough the GOPe cuts him loose to the wind. Why should conservatives stick around when the moderates have nothing but contempt for them?

[nickcarraway]

Why doesn't Romney hold any responsibility in this? If he would make some, even token, issue to reach out across the aisle?

He doesn't even care enough to lie on some minor issue. Are people who don't want to vote for a candidate who has no skin in the game really, "self righteous and sanctimonious?" Don't you get he should have some skin in the game.

He can get all conservatives votes and then turn around a nuke them into oblivion? He doesn't even have to pretend he can play nice?

[DarthVader]

“While most conservatives and Evangelical Christians are actually supporting Romney there are some who are so self righteous and sanctimonious that they refuse to support any one who’s not as ideologically pure as themselves.”

Call them Pharissees. Jesus called the Pharissees “white washed tombs full of dead mens bones”, “hypocrites” and also hell bound. Food for thought.

[libdestroyer]

“Since Romney doesn’t meet their exhalted standards for conservatism, they’ll stay at home rather than violate their “principles”, in essence passive aggressively voting for much worse: Obama.”

No one is staying at home. Most people around here are going to vote Republican down-the-ticket. They are just going to vote for a different presidential candidate.

[taxcontrol]

Doc, you have the wrong perception. I’m a conservative and an evangelical and I will be voting. I’m just going to vote for conservatives and will not vote for either socialist.

Since the GOP has shown that they neither want nor desire my vote, I will use my vote as I see fit and change the outcome of the major / minor party standings according to the rules of my state - Colorado.

The choice this year is NOT conservative vs socialist. Rather it is fast socialist (Obama) vs slow socialist (Romney). It is a choice of who will do the most damage to America. Four more years of Obama who will (hopeful) be opposed in the Congress by both houses -OR- Eight years of Romney who will not be opposed by anyone. Stagnation of the socialist agenda or further creeping socialism under Romney. To my view, the damage will be the same or of so little difference that it wont matter. In fact, as far as party politics goes, Romney will be worse for the GOP as his presidency will likely tear the party apart.

So, I will use my vote where it WILL make a difference. I will use it down ticket to elect conservatives to Congress. And at the top of the ticket, I will use it as a protest vote. At the end of this election cycle, perhaps one of the strategists within the GOP will look at the voting and say “Gee, if we just had a few more conservatives on board...”.
And next time, if the GOP wants to EARN my vote, they will put up a candidate that I can vote for and not another socialist. Otherwise, don’t kick sand in my face and wonder why I don’t call you my friend.

[donna]

Exhalted standards for conservatism

What standards do you mean?

[Cowgirl]

We have this little talk every four years as the Republican Party installs their rino pretend to love Jesus candidate.
It is obvious who runs this country and I am sure whoever they want to be in will be in office next January. It doesn’t matter if they have to cheat to do it. I plan on voting my conscience and not holding my nose. Whoever does become president has a train wreck waiting for him anyway.

[EternalVigilance]

Maybe they got tired of being treated as a statistic on some unprincipled political hack’s graph.

[libdestroyer]

“As I said before, then the default is to allow the one who does not represent our values EVEN MORE, to win.”

Your point?

[arthurus]

How will he ever get rid of conservative cooties if they vote for him?

If he doesn't win the election, and I don't think he intends to win, he would prefer that his loss be attributed to fickle conservative traitors so that he can, as a private Elite person, tell his high class mostly leftist friends that "they," being ignorant, just don't know what's good for them.

Conversely, if he wins with a low conservative/evangelical turnout I suspect he is apt to govern more conservatively than if he wins with overwhelming C/E support because he can let his common sense prevail- he is not having to prove to the Elite that he is not really one of "those people."

I see Romney as kind of a lose/lose situation with one of the the alternatives being REALLY REALLY LOSE with the kenyan.

[muawiyah]

like to analyze this one but i’m saving that sort of thing up for late january 2013. just giving him a chance to run.

[Mozilla]

A. Notice how when Romney wasn’t doing much to attack Obama and defend himself that most Conservatives liked the dumb establishment Republicans defended him and made the case he was winning.

B. As soon as he does something good for a change and comes out swinging on Obama’s Foreign Policy and he is attacking the left. And is right about the fact that a lot of people have a government mentality. The establishment and rinos run to cover and start bashing him or saying he is doing bad and losing.

C. Thus establishment people are left wingers in sheeps clothing.

[ansel12]

I am afraid they are going Libertarian.

No, Christians and conservatives are voting for a party to the left of the GOP and that is anti-Christian to boot.

[arthurus]

The home runs are hit when the party preaches enough that people in the middle actually experience a change of heart.

A la Reagan. But Republican mainliners get to feelìng all dirty and slimy when they contemplate adopting Reagan's ideas and method. Reagan made Truth and Forthrightness his method and that stigmatized those concepts for Republicans forever.

[ansel12]

left out the word NOT.