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2 Million Jobs Created in Bush's First Term according to BLS "Household Survey"
Burean of LZabor Statistics ^ | 9/7/2012 | BLS

Posted on 09/18/2012 11:43:59 AM PDT by brookwood

The “Household Survey” (as opposed to the “Payroll Survey”) shows a 2 million GAIN in jobs in Bush’s first term, versus a LOSS for Obama. From Bureau of Labor Statistics - Bloomberg ticker USEMADJP - US Employment Smoothed for Population Controls and Adjusted to a Payroll Concept, seasonally adjusted.

Bush Term 1 to August 2004 GAIN of 1,953,000 jobs 1/2001 - 130,098,000 8/2004 - 132,051,000

Obamination Term 1 (and only!) to August 2012 LOSS of 407,000 jobs 1/2009 - 135,620,000 8/2012 - 135,213,000

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf (note red line increasing sharply in Bush's first term versus decline in last 38 months)


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: jobs; obamafailure; obamaworstever
The “Household Survey” (as opposed to the “Payroll Survey”) shows a 2 million GAIN in jobs in Bush’s first term, versus a LOSS for Obama. From Bureau of Labor Statistics - Bloomberg ticker USEMADJP - US Employment Smoothed for Population Controls and Adjusted to a Payroll Concept, seasonally adjusted.

Bush Term 1 to August 2004 GAIN of 1,953,000 jobs 1/2001 - 130,098,000 8/2004 - 132,051,000

Obamination Term 1 (and only!) to August 2012 LOSS of 407,000 jobs 1/2009 - 135,620,000 8/2012 - 135,213,000

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.pdf (note red line increasing sharply in Bush's first term versus decline in last 38 months)

1 posted on 09/18/2012 11:44:13 AM PDT by brookwood
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To: brookwood

And keep in mind that Bush had the bursting of the Internet Bubble to deal with plus the crippling effect of 9/11, which plunged construction into a deep recession. The first Bush term is a example of how to avoid a long, drawn-out recession.


2 posted on 09/18/2012 12:05:44 PM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: brookwood
This argument raged at the time of the Bush recovery.. Payroll vs. Household.

Payroll data have long been accepted as the standard because in the Household survey

"People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm; or worked without pay at least 15 hours in a family business or farm. People are also counted as employed if they were temporarily absent from their jobs because of illness, bad weather, vacation, labor-management disputes, or personal reasons."

We had raging arguments here during the recession recovery of the Bush years.. Payroll reported 26,000 jobs were created and Household put the number at 400,000 (as an example). All conservative talk show hosts also raged against the MSM for not reporting the Household numbers.

Many FReepers would accuse the MSM with deliberate distortion for ignoring the Household survey. They argued that people starting a business count as employment and Payroll does not count them (they alleged).

Well what the hell good does it do vis-a-vis the employment situation to count hundreds of thousands of technical people "worked[ing] in their own business, profession" by searching for work as a contract employee? Or working on a family farm? Or working a few hours unpaid in a family business?

I believe that the BLS still includes descriptions of both methods in their The Employment Situation monthly reports.

Based upon Census data and how the 60,000 Households answer the questions the data -- including how many are judged to have "dropped out" -- are obtained to compute the official unemployment rate.

Maybe the jobs are coming up short because so many are saying the hell with it.. things are so bad that I am not "working" looking for a contract in my consulting business.

3 posted on 09/18/2012 12:20:10 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

“Payroll data have long been accepted as the standard” - sounds like we have a troll working the waterfront. The unemployment rate is based on the household survey, so the idea that the payroll survey is “the standard” is simply false.

“Well what the hell good does it do vis-a-vis the employment situation to count hundreds of thousands of technical people “worked[ing] in their own business, profession” by searching for work as a contract employee? Or working on a family farm? Or working a few hours unpaid in a family business?”

You are kidding right?? “What good” are self employed people?? you mean because they “didn’t build” their own business if they are self-employed?? Because “somebody else did that for them”???
The payroll survey has Bush down by 500,000 vs. Obama, and the household survey has Bush up 2,400,000 vs. Obama. So the BUSH advantage in the household survey is 5 TIMES LARGER. Go the “THEWORSTPRESIDENTEVER.COM” to find out more about your hero BO choom-gang loser.
Get used to saying PRESIDENT MITT ROMNEY!


4 posted on 09/18/2012 1:16:12 PM PDT by brookwood (. Bush's First Term 2 million jobs created! - using BLS Household Survey)
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To: brookwood
cute response with the BO hero and troll stuff

I will point out that "searching for work as a contract employee" generates no income -- that was the point -- but the Household survey could count that as employed by having "worked in their own business, profession;" ditto working for no wages on the farm or in the family store.

And yes the payroll (Establishment) survey is the standard for reporting nonfarm payroll employment based upon the survey of about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. That has been the standard for decades I believe.

The Employment Situation - July 2012"

5 posted on 09/18/2012 2:35:59 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

First, “searching for work as a contract employee” is your term, not stated in the BLS definition you cite, so it is irrelevant, and in any case there are plenty of salespeople getting a salary and not making any sales in a particular reporting period. Plenty of investment bankers pitched deals last week and weren’t awarded any. But they were working.
“And yes the payroll (Establishment) survey is the standard for reporting nonfarm payroll “
Yep payroll = payroll. Payroll is not the same as employment. Maybe Obama should have gone to business school - you too. This time don’t vote for him.


6 posted on 09/18/2012 3:15:33 PM PDT by brookwood (. Bush's First Term 2 million jobs created! - using BLS Household Survey)
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To: brookwood
BLS Household survey: "People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid employees during the reference week; worked in their own business, profession,"

Someone who works as a contract employee (contractor s/he may prefer) can be in business for himself. Yes I say that the Household survey counts looking for their next contract as being employed even though they are not being paid while they search for that next contract.

Payroll is not the same as employment? Yes the self-employed are not on a payroll is one exception. But..

employees of businesses are on the businesses' payrolls. The Payroll survey reports the numbers and I believe that is accepted as the best indicator of the employment situation.

7 posted on 09/18/2012 3:57:19 PM PDT by WilliamofCarmichael (If modern America's Man on Horseback is out there, Get on the damn horse already!)
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To: WilliamofCarmichael

The Household survey is the better indicator because it is broader and captures more information about employment, i.e. it captures professionals and contractors who are self employed. And it shows that employment grew by 2 million in Bush’s first term, while employment contracted under Obama’s first and only term. Ergo, Obama is worse than Bush, in fact he is officially The Worst President Ever. Please don’t vote for him again like you did last time!


8 posted on 09/19/2012 5:06:23 AM PDT by brookwood (. Bush's First Term 2 million jobs created! - using BLS Household Survey)
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