Skip to comments.Obama gains in 3 states, Romney one in updated [Karl] Rove Electoral Map [PA now "Safe Obama"]
Posted on 09/18/2012 12:48:56 PM PDT by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle
Karl Rove's weekly commentary on his updated Electoral Map:
"Four states changed status since last week's Electoral College map.
"Both Minnesota and Pennsylvania shifted from 'lean Obama' to 'safe Obama.' Michigan moved to 'lean Obama' for now. And Kentucky moved from 'lean' to 'safe' Romney.
"Barack Obama now has 214 'safe' Electoral College votes and only two 'lean' states (27 EC votes). These changes come after a week of heavy polling (there were 41 polls conducted in 20 states last week, compared to 13 surveys taken in nine states the week prior)
"With Kentucky's change, Mitt Romney has 154 'safe' EC votes while three states (37 EC votes) 'lean' in his favor. The states in Mr. Romney's column are unlikely to change in the 50 days left until the election because they are all generally safe Republican states.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Pennsylvania must have a lot of Entitlement Zombies. Oh...bah...mah! Oh...bah...mah!
rove gives a lot of people gas.
actually i think Rove is in charge of $100mill pro-Romney superpac...my big issue with the map is NC is listed as a toss-up despite the claim the map is designed on recent heavy polling...at the very least it should be lean Romney...
I am soooooo scart. OMG
This isn’t good news for Obama, and I’m not just saying that on a partisan basis. All we have heard is how the Romney campaign is DEAD. How he ruined his reputation speaking on Libya, and has no chance. To see such minor change doesn’t fit the narrative. Kentucky, I had no doubts about. Pennsylvania was always going to go Obama anyway. I don’t know why anyone ever thought it was a swing state. Michigan flickers between swing and lean Obama, but it has a record number of undecideds. 10%. If 10% are undecided on election day, as opposed to the average 3-4%, we’ll take Michigan.
While I don’t doubt Rove is a good analyst, he underestimated us in 2010 if I remember correctly. And he’s also taking into account stupid CNN polls that survey 4% independents. Those polls should be thrown out.
Knew I should have inserted that sarcasm tag. ;)
Kent say what you want, but if a guy on your side has a negative, you go to him with it.
You don’t go public and give the DNCp and the Obama team a boost.
This is very amateurish of Rove.
Well I guess there’s no point in bothering to go to the polls and vote on Nov 6th. Its all over if the MSM says so.
PPP (I know) still shows an Obama lead in NC.
I live in southern York county, and the Romney signs outnumber the Obama signs 5 to 1, but Philadelphia plays too heavily into the vote count in this state, unfortunately.
Minnesota safe for Obama? lol
Good try, though.
North Carolina is lean Romney. No question.
I wonder how much of that $100 million will go to electing Romney, and how much will end up in Rove's pocket?
With each passing Presidential election, Pennsylvania seems to be slipping further away. Obviously there’s something about democrats in the White House that appeals to them. Ditto for Michigan.
Well then all is lost, we shouldn’t even bother voting. Obama is up in NC.
Love you so called concerned posters on FR. This place is a cluster F.
Yeah. That's what Rove's telling you, doubtless.
I, for one, am ignoring all this BS. Go back to Carter days and learn a lesson.
Really? Minnesota voted for Mondale. Even New York didn’t do that. Does Romney have any chance there?
You inhumanly clever savant, you. That's exactly what Rove's telling you, absolutely.
I’m surprised with all the oversampling of Democrats in the polls that Romney has ANY EC’s. It should be an Obama clean sweep!
Rove and his compilation of polling data is a joke! The only poll that matters is on November 6th.
This rove crap is a bunch of Rcp polls averages by each state?
Rove peddles this crap as legit ?
What a hoax !
This includes all the discredited PPP and NBC propaganda polls !
Rove is a huckster !
This wont be 2008 or 2010. Too many unknowns.
If Romney loses Rove will be proved a fool for sure, I know thats a small consolation prize given O. Alternative if Romney won big then Rove will own the R party again, Kingmaker.
Only a few months ago we were poised for such victories with the Senate and House.
Is Romney hurting us badly down ticket?
What leaves me genuinely gobsmacked, ultimately, is just how many hasty, huffy respondents demonstrably have no clue whatsoever that Rove is (and has been) in Romney's corner since Day One.
They just reflexively... attack. Like jihadis firing their sub-machine guns into the air, and wailing "ULULULULULULULUL -- !!!" ;)
Philadelphia’s vote controls the state, sadly.
There are still no Obama signs around here, Romney/Ryan signs popping up daily, here in the Pittsburgh area.
This state has a few transplants from liberal lands, too, they really do think that even though they’re successful and wealthy, by voting for dems makes them feel good. They don’t redistribute THEIR money, mind you, but it makes them feel good to think that you’re redistributing yours.
Karl Rove and his white board , because he can never remember the numbers
Rove's "internal polls" show republican victory in 2006
So you're saying that Rove has a proven history of OVERestimating Republican support in presidential elections, in other words...? ;)
Surely you jest. The Kingmaker position has already been filled, and she’s not sharing the title.
yep — Philly votes (with some districts supposedly reporting 100%+ participation) and also a lot of New York/liberal transplants who’ve moved into “bedroom communities” — but I’m not giving up, on the hopes that Voter ID will be in place and cut down on some of the fraud.
These are not polls conducted by Rove.
This is a map with a collection of various NBC ,PPP, QU slanted state polls Averaged together !
It’s useless garbage .
Rove’s view counts a whole lot - like $100 million worth - since he’s in charge of one of the two big GOP SuperPACs (the other being the Koch brother’s Americans for Prosperity).
THE SEVEN BATTLEGROUNDS:
CO, FL, IA, OH, NV, VA and WI
NC ... the chatter is that Obama is withdrawing
NH ... very expensive for 4 EVs (since you have to buy the Boston market) AND Scott Brown’s chances of re-election are hurt by “nationalizing” the election in the Boston market
Of the seven remaining battlegrounds, all but one (Iowa) has a competitive Senate race; they’re twofers.
MO ... could be a problem; if I were Rove or the Kochs, I’d have a contingency plan for when the second and final deadline for Achin’ to withdraw passes.
MI and NM ... could still opportunities; plus, they are also twofers. If I were Obama I’d take advantage of the suspension of GOP advertising to move the dial in these two states. But, Silver has them as solidly Democratic.
Al Frankenville, in other words.
“but Philadelphia plays too heavily into the vote count in this state, unfortunately.”
Not to mention all those motor voters. Oh, that’s right, we have voter id, now. /sarc
^ THIS ^. All reflexive jihadiesque ankle-biting hereabouts notwithstanding. ;)
a bit, but more than that he has a habit of picking the things that are good for Rove. He finds the numbers that he thinks will make the people paying him happy. If he is Bush’s head stratigist he says “my numbers say Republicans get the majority of House and Senate” even though every other poll said he was laughably wrong. Now he is firmly a media personality, and as such he would rather sell a good story. Now the good story for him could be ‘Romney underdog comes back from certain death!”. But as long as Rove is in the business of entertaining his numbers cant be trusted.
I was at the Fair last weekend and saw a few Obama steelworker shirts and a handfull of those purple SEIU shirts. I saw no Romey signs in West York,or York Township.
Okay... but: given that calling PA "Safe Obama" cannot conceivably make his current paymaster (i.e., Romney) even remotely "happy"... doesn't that logically indicate that we should therefore take said statement MORE seriously, rather than LESS?
I think the problems in PA are:
2) Increasing numbers of refugees from NY, NJ and MD who bring their liberal voting patterns with them.
3) Blue collar types in Western PA who are culturally conservative but have bought into the mantra that their jobs depend on keeping Democrats in power (the Murtha effect).
4) The absolute failure of the Catholic Church to drive home how it will be game over for religious freedom if he gets a second term.
That being said it is hard to find any evidence around here of Obama being popular.
Obama definitely has an edge in “safe” states because he has more big states locked up (CA, NY, IL) than Romney. Which means that Romney has to win a solid majority of the tossups to win it — splitting them with Obama 50/50 won’t be good enough.
It all depends on the turnout. The mainstream polls are predicting a model in which turnout is similar for Democrats to what it was in ‘08, or even more favorable for them. Rasmussen seems to be the only exception, which is why he’s showing Romney with a slight lead.
We’ll find out who’s right soon enough.
Funny you should mention that.
One of the gym TVs is set to PBS and last night lib Bill Moyer show was on and he had a guest who outlined how Karl Rove was behind the scenes smearing Romney's 2012 primary opponents like Santurum, Newt, Perry, etc.
My google says it was Craig Unger who wrote BOSS ROVE: Inside Karl Roves Secret Kingdom of Power.
That was just last night(I think it was last Friday's show).
Naturally this is popular with the Dem outlets, you will never see it on the Republican channel as Rove is a big shot there.
Useless garbage indeed! What kind of idiot posts this garbage on FR and then takes it seriously?
Seriously. They ran the same freakin' poll for OHIO!!!! Really? Asking Ohioans (supposedly of both parties) about the speakers at the DNC??
No. This wasn't a rigged poll. Of course not.
We're both reading from the same hymnal, analysis-wise. ;) At this point -- with Pennsylvania (and IMHO, as of right now, Minnesota) out of realistic reach -- Ohio and Florida are where the story will ultimately end up being told, one way or the other.
Well Rove dissed the Tea Party and missed 206 and 2010 elections, he regurgitates the polls on Fox with Trippi, even thought he finally fessed up when pressed on the oversampling rats in the polls.
It reminds me of the espn sports argument show which are staged.
I watch how the campaigns act, Obama is ACTING like he is toast. The polls reflect a 2008 turnout model which is a fantasy.
All the polls show Obama down double digits with independents Rove knows this.
I think there is no way for Obama to win nationally while losing independents by double digits.
People don’t fall for this, its liberal propaganda.
I advise all to go to www.hillbuzz.org and read Kevin’s articles on this very subject. They are trying to depress and discourage voter turnout. Don’t fall for it and don’t unknowningly spread the propaganda, you’re doing the enemy’s dirtywork for them.
We’re winning and they know it!!
Rove is in charge of a 100 million+ PAC, to be deployed in service of Romney's electoral ambitions. One way or another: it's inarguable that he's taking the king's shilling. ;)
If she is the one I think she is then the R party has two Kingmakers on the block and I don't think they like each other one bit, and they work for the same channel,
If Romney wins then her role will not be very interesting for her.
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