Skip to comments.Polls Schmolls (braying)
Posted on 09/19/2012 6:00:55 AM PDT by bray
I have told you this, so that when the time comes you will remember that I warned you. I did not tell you this at first because I was with you. The Work of the Holy Spirit John 16.4
So we now have a country where free speech is denied when it is about Islam. It is bad enough you have to wag a Coptic Christian to cover your negligent manslaughter of your own Ambassador, you have to kill another Christian too? Hilary and Barak mOhamhead just gave the maker of a Youtube video his death sentence as a campaign tactic. We also now see how the liberals would have handled the actual 911 if they were in charge. Just like this murder of our Ambassador and his unarmed security detail, they would have blamed America for the killing of our people. Just like every other attack when they are in charge we would have heard about how we deserved it thanks to our capitalistic greed and how 1% should be killed for their crimes against humanity, after they donate to the Obama campaign of course.
A real leader would have been prepared for this attack since it was the first 911 after the killing of Osama. Also Libya has never been a friend of America which should have been obvious to anybody except those who were not paying attention. Only the lamest of executives would miss their security briefings on the eve of this important day in the 11th century world. Like Bush always said, "They only have to succeed once and people die."
While Tripoli burned Obama slept like a baby but had a "bad day." How anybody can see him as anything other than the worst Commander in Chief in the history of this country has to be a true believer.
Speaking of which, the poll dancers are up to their old tricks. As someone who has taken graduate level statistic and probability courses as well as sampling there is no possibility these polls are anything more than tea leaves in mud. The oldest saying in the polling cookbook is garbage in, garbage out and their samples are garbage in. There are far too many variables to contend with to get a n accurate sample when your only sampling a few hundred people and attempting to predict 300 million in various states and regions. Anybody who tells you otherwise is lying.
The first and most obvious problem with the sample is caller ID. When everyone in the country has caller ID and it says Gallup or an 800 number, nobody will answer except those who want to be polled. This gives you a sample of drunks and losers who have nothing better to do than answer a bunch of silly questions. Nobody is going to take the time to answer except those who want to skew the poll or political junkies. If you do find that person he is likely to lie about his affiliation or the answers giving you a very biased sample.
The second problem is how do you predict the turnout? Most of the exit polls were wrong due to their turnout models which were worse than the Global Warming models. When you have no clue how many people are going to vote from which geography then you have no idea of what the actual poll will be as we saw in the Walker, Brown, and the midterms when the analysts were laughing at the Tea Baggers. The fact is the Tea Party is a very powerful faction which is dismissed. Most of these turnouts are manipulated to make them believable since pollsters are paid millions to have people believe what they are saying. The recent results for all the polls have been abysmal thanks to bad samples and shooting in the dark with model designs.
The final problem which is the largest reason to question these polls is agenda driven group think. Just like a sports analyst most of this is subjective and has very little to do with actual science. They call it science to give it credibility however most of the actual analysis of the flawed data is subjective or biased. Nobody is going to publish a poll showing the challenger up 10 pts or even five and expect to have any credibility so they tend to see what everyone else is doing and say what they say. This is the safest way to predict since if you predict outside of the group norm and you are wrong everyone notices and points it out damaging your dwindling credibility. If you go with the crowd and are wrong everyone will say they were shocked and nobody could predict it keeping your credibility in tact.
Since most of them were wrong during the midterms they could all say it was impossible to predict and move on like it never happened. The only ones who predicted a large win was Dick Morris and myself. He predicted an 80 seat pickup and I predicted 100 seats a year before it happened. We are both predicting a landslide in November and the taking of both Houses of Congress. My reasons are not subjective but objective just as they were on the Midterm Tsunami. Most experts know it is a strong possibility but will not admit it since they would be outside the groupthink.
There is one reason we predicted the midterm and the same formula is in place today. The Tea Party has changed the dynamic of the race and has destroyed the voter models. The movement has turned from a protest to an political machine which has changed the landscape. They dont need to protest like the Occupoopers since the Tea Party has become a philosophy rather than a movement. These people are working below the surface and making real changes that are ignored by the pollsters and pundiots who are more interested in their own egos than what is really going on in America. Political observers like Morris observe what is really happening at the grassroots and all of the momentum is moving away from the Ocucommies and towards Freedom and Liberty which is why there will be a landslide.
The final reason Ohbummer will lose is he is Ohbummer. He has never had shirttails and that string is going to continue with himself. He is a terrible campaigner who is only interested in himself while giving tired speeches about how great he is or how much he hates America. This tires on all but the most radical cultists while those who are semi-interested are weary of his politics. His hate America routine only works with those who hate her as much as he does but the rest will turn their backs in two months.
We must continue to keep the faith, work hard and finish this battle for the heart of America. We can win and take a giant step back towards Freedom and Liberty for all. Liberty includes the right to speak your mind about issues some dont want you to speak about. There is a reason tyrants need to silence you about certain subjects, but in America we still have Free Speech. Lady Liberty's torch represents free speech to expose the lies, corruption and darkness while locking up free speech would extinguish her torch. We have to vote to have that Torch burn bright once again and expose the darkness in America and around the world.
Pray for America
LOL. Excellent analysis and editorial, dear Bray!
Those pollsters will have to come to more of a reality in the final two weeks if they want any credibility at all.
Like Rush says, these current polls are meant to demoralize our side and also to influence swing voters and the so-called undecided voters.
NO SALE. The first debate hasn't even taken place....LOL.
I love the way they're taking a page out of the lib handbook ...working under the surface and unnoticed.
Yep, agree wholeheartedly.
Unfortunately, I have to take an new call from my 74 year old mother just about every other day cause she's in a panic over the latest cr@p poll just released.
I really hate Obozo and can't wait to give him the boot but good....not just because of the lousy job he's done but for the daily hell my mom is putting me through because of him.... I swear I'm gonna rip her Direct TV system to pieces before this nightmare ends.
Has the Establishmedia declared their messiah the winner of the debates yet?
Pray for America
My folks are elderly - I get this too, every time a poll comes out. Dad is SO depressed and has all but given up on the country .... he says we are at the point similar to the water swirling as it goes down the toilet. He can’t do much anymore so he spends 80% (or more) of his time in front of the TV (mostly FOX, but he watches Brian Williams evening news - ugh) so it is really messing him up. Mom is almost as bad - she believes everything she hears and that is mostly lib lies ... until I talk her out of it or show her something conservative online that refutes what she heard. I can’t wait until this election is over and I pray the winner will be ABO. Dad won’t have a chance under Okill’emcare.
He still has the “it” factor it’s just that its preceded by an “sh”.
Pray for America
We were watching the news last night, and being in the Dallas area every station covered the Mitt and Ann fundraisers.
I saw NO mention of Libya or the assassinations, but plenty of coverage of the protesters outside the Anatole. Attendance was claimed from a dozen to 100 protesters, which is serious fantasy.
More time was given to a protester, who gave a long 30 second elevator pitch why Romney was bad for America - and this was on Fox!
I googled the protest speaker. It turns out that he is the communications director for one of the unions representing American Airlines ... and he claims to be against the 1% ?
We are barely hearing any of Romney's side ...
If Dad was still here I wouldn't have to hear it all the time but...... Ya, I have to talk my Mom off the ledge regularly.....after all, it's not like I have any work to do...
The good news is she's only listening to FOX and after she calms down some of her friends ....she's actually gotten three of them to stop watching Democrat Public Service Announcement channels like CNN, NBC.....and change over to FOX. Supposedly, they all sleep a lot better. My Mom has also managed to drag five of her friends to go see 2016.
As much and I hate dealing with her fears at least she's working to convert the ignorant ones away from "The Darkside".....and as an added bonus it keeps her busy ......for awhile.
I got Okill’emcare from another FReeper and had the same reaction .... using it now rather than the more benign Obamacare term. Dad is 89, 10 stents, CHF ... you see why he will be deemed to have outlived his usefulness and a candidate for ‘comfort care’ only.
Mom went to see 2016 last week - fortunately, the majority of her friends are Conservatives (the two that aren’t she won’t engage in political or religious discussions). Still, even listening to Rush, she gets really ‘down’. I have decided within the last couple of days that I can’t continue talking myself silly trying to “convince” them of anything (in particular, that the polls are rigged). They will vote ABO so I don’t have to worry about them in the voting booth.
She also listens to Rush too, but I told her not to try to convert her friends to him yet....slowly introduce it over time...Say something like,"I heard on Rush today, when I was on my way to the market, that Obama did "X"..(oh Horror)... Can you believe it..........."
I told her that eventually some will begin listening to Rush, while others will only lurk at best. It's working.
BTW, her friends are registered voters in OHIO and even though she's living in Ohio part of the time, She's registered to vote in Florida.....we're working toward a stealth Romney conversion for election day....tehehehehe...
An excellent essay as always, and I believe you have accurately described several of the factors which are making the polls almost useless in this current environment.
However, there is one dire aspect and ominous implication which I believe you have overlooked. The fact that the polling companies have your phone number also means that they have your name and address, they know who you are, they know where you work, etc.
The problem with this is that under the current regime this is an extremely dangerous situation. We have no way of knowing with whom the polling companies are sharing this data. It is entirely possible that these result are being given to certain governmental agencies and freedom-hostile NGO’s and the voters who respond to these polls are being sorted according to criteria such as “favorable” or “unfavorable” to the regime.
People have forgotten how, in the wake of the government takeover of General Motors there were subsequently many dealerships which were forced to close. Closer examination of the statistics of those closings reveal that the vast majority of those forced to close were those who donated primarily to Republican causes and candidates.
The point of all this is that in the currently collapsing state of the rule of law and more brazenly fascist manifestations of the regime, not to mention the many Soros-backed NGO’s who might have influence with your employer, etc., there is real reason to fear expressing your opinions to pollsters because that information might be forwarded to “whomever” and used to threaten your job, family, etc.
I believe you’re correct that the polls are suspect for all the reasons you listed, but I also believe that a genuine element of fear, unease and mistrust is operating as well.
I agree. ALL of the different polls are all over the map.
GOOD on you for taking the time to investigate the identity of the protest speaker! Union thug for the Marxist! Of course, this information should have been included with Fox’s coverage, but DFW is AA’s hub.
I hate our so-called “news” media.