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Fox News: Obama has edge over Romney in three battleground states (7 points in OH, VA, 5 in FL)
Fox News ^ | 9-19-2012 | Dana Blanton

Posted on 09/19/2012 5:03:33 PM PDT by Abiotic

President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election.

Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent).

Obama’s lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error in Ohio and Virginia, and within the margin of sampling error in Florida.

The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).

Independents are nearly evenly divided in each of the states, as well.

Majorities of voters are unhappy with how things are going in the country, yet in all three states more say they trust Obama than Romney to improve the economy.

Likewise, in each state more voters believe the Obama administration’s policies have helped rather than hurt the economy -- albeit by slim margins: By two points in Florida, three points in Ohio and five points in Virginia.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; fl2012; oh2012; poll2012; pollselection; va2012
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1 posted on 09/19/2012 5:03:38 PM PDT by Abiotic
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To: Abiotic

As usual, the question this piece of news begs is this : WHAT IS THE D/R/I BREAKDOWN OF THEIR POLL?


2 posted on 09/19/2012 5:04:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Abiotic

The last paragraph shows the tilt in this poll. No way rose numbers are accurate, unless a huge percentage of Americans suddenly got amnesia in the last 30 days.


3 posted on 09/19/2012 5:07:17 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: SeekAndFind

What should it be?


4 posted on 09/19/2012 5:09:26 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: Abiotic
"The Fox News poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 16 to September 18, 2012."

I'll be these guys are as bad as the outfit Opinion Dynamics that Fox once employed.

5 posted on 09/19/2012 5:09:32 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Abiotic

Internals? Likely or registered or adults? D/R/I split?


6 posted on 09/19/2012 5:10:16 PM PDT by piytar (The predator-class is furious that their prey are shooting back.)
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To: Abiotic

From the article:

More voters than not say it is “pretty neat” to live in a hotly-contested state. Some 45 percent of voters in Virginia and 44 percent in Ohio feel that way, as do 40 percent in Florida. On the other hand, nearly a third in each state says it’s a “big pain.”

..gives you an idea of the questions asked...


7 posted on 09/19/2012 5:11:05 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: ilgipper

If these polls are to be believed, then the electorate is insane.


8 posted on 09/19/2012 5:12:21 PM PDT by windsorknot
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To: chopperjc
What should it be?

It should represent the current registration percentages of R vs D.

See here for instance:

Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.

They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August

That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year.

9 posted on 09/19/2012 5:13:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
According to the internals, Florida is: D -- 42%, R-- 37%, Independent / Other -- 20%, Refused -- 1%.
10 posted on 09/19/2012 5:14:06 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Abiotic

These polls were wrong in 2008 and they will be proven to be wrong in 2012.


11 posted on 09/19/2012 5:14:07 PM PDT by Uncle Slayton
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To: windsorknot

We didn’t believe the polls four years ago, and look what happened. Looks like most voters are comfortable with failure, because their lives are failures under this administration. They would rather stay with what they know than “risk” a Republican in the WH.


12 posted on 09/19/2012 5:14:12 PM PDT by Galtoid ( .)
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To: Abiotic
There is only one poll that matters, and this ain't it.
13 posted on 09/19/2012 5:14:28 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: Abiotic

I don’t pay any attention to Fox’s polls. They are worthless.


14 posted on 09/19/2012 5:15:01 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Ignorance is bliss- I'm stoked)
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To: Uncle Slayton

I hope you’re right but Americans have been SIGNIFICANTLY dumbed-down since 0bama took office.


15 posted on 09/19/2012 5:15:55 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: SeekAndFind
As usual, the question this piece of news begs is this : WHAT IS THE D/R/I BREAKDOWN OF THEIR POLL?

From the poll:

POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION

When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?

Democrat 42%

Republican 37%

(Independent / Other) 20%

(Don’t know / Refused) 1%

16 posted on 09/19/2012 5:20:04 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: chopperjc
What should it be?

Don't know. But, one based on the 2010 and 2011 turnouts might be a place to start?

17 posted on 09/19/2012 5:21:40 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: chopperjc
What should it be?

Don't know. But, one based on the 2010 and 2011 turnouts might be a place to start?

18 posted on 09/19/2012 5:21:45 PM PDT by wolf24
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Sample is +6 D, not sure of the party affiliation numbers for Ohio.

I would not that Romney is up among indies by 4% (42-38 with 11 % undecided, figure ~8-3 split for the challenger.

I like Romney’s chances here if he is close to +10 with Indies.


19 posted on 09/19/2012 5:22:43 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Abiotic

Just saw Karl (spit) Rove on O’Really and he had his electoral map up. Pretty sure all three of those states he had as tossups (for what that’s worth).


20 posted on 09/19/2012 5:23:30 PM PDT by JaguarXKE (If my Fluffy had a puppy, it would look like the puppy Obama ate!)
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To: Abiotic

I don’t know why he’s leading here in Florida, except perhaps that the liberal snowbirds who vote in more than one state are probably starting to come back.


21 posted on 09/19/2012 5:25:09 PM PDT by livius
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To: Abiotic

Absolutely the worst polling group in cable .
I wonder if Sheppy is calling the shots on these poll criteria since he
In the news div .
These polls are more way off than NBC and that says it all .

Fox has shifted left and they are getting crushed now .

Good riddance to that phony network .
In 2008 , 80 % or more of the staff voted for Obama .
Need I say more .


22 posted on 09/19/2012 5:25:28 PM PDT by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !H)
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To: livius

He isn’t leading !
It’s bad polling


23 posted on 09/19/2012 5:26:12 PM PDT by ncalburt (NO MORE WIMPS need to apply to fight the Soros Funded Puppet !H)
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To: wolf24
Don't know. But, one based on the 2010 and 2011 turnouts might be a place to start?

No. You don't base Presidential cycle turnout models on off year elections.

24 posted on 09/19/2012 5:26:56 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Palmetto Patriot
It shouldn't be "what do you think", but what is your party identification. It's a pretty easy question if you are registered to vote.
25 posted on 09/19/2012 5:27:12 PM PDT by JacksonCalhoun (CT Yankee in NC Exile)
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To: Longbow1969

No, you’re right. However, the numbers from those elections at least indicate that the 2008 numbers are likely invalid.


26 posted on 09/19/2012 5:28:49 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: ncalburt

So the FL and VA samples are +5D looks like they are using the 2008 turnout model. If more concern is Obama having small leads with the indies (+2FL,+1Vir) although there are about 10% undecided that should go 7-3 for Romney.Which should win him both states.

Also keep in mid Obama has been spending tons of money in these states and from here on out things spending will be dominated by Romney.


27 posted on 09/19/2012 5:29:01 PM PDT by Leto
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To: SeekAndFind

For Ohio:

“POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?”

16-18 Sept - Dem 42%, Rep 36%, Ind/Other 21%, Don’t know/Refused 1%


28 posted on 09/19/2012 5:31:36 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: SeekAndFind

oh+7 fl +5 so far


29 posted on 09/19/2012 5:33:10 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: Abiotic

Before you post anymore polling information, check out Hillbuzz.org’s articles on liberal propaganda and their intentional use of these polls to depress morale and voter turnout.


30 posted on 09/19/2012 5:33:10 PM PDT by diamond6 (Freerepublic.com and Hillbuzz.org are my go to sites for conservative news.)
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To: SeekAndFind

That chart is for a national poll.

The breakdown will be different state by state. California, for example will have more democrats. Texas will have more Republicans.

As an Ohioan for many decades, my sense of this state is that it’s just about evenly split with a bit of an edge — not much — to Republicans. We have a republican House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court, and Secty of State.

That should say something about voting trends to anyone trying to be honest.


31 posted on 09/19/2012 5:33:49 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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Fox polls are always terribly unreliable and always seem to be less favorable to the GOP.


32 posted on 09/19/2012 5:35:34 PM PDT by amishman
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To: Abiotic

Is this a statistician’s standard, to use the prior election year’s turnout numbers for every poll? Because I have yet to see a poll that varies from this model.


33 posted on 09/19/2012 5:36:23 PM PDT by montag813
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To: ncalburt
Good riddance to that phony network [FNC]. In 2008 , 80 % or more of the staff voted for Obama . Need I say more.

And yet the Dems and MSM still portray Fox News as a mouthpiece for the far right. If 80% of the FNC staff (excluding contributors)voted for Obama (hard to believe)in 2008, I don't think that percentage will again despite the network's perceived movement to the left.

34 posted on 09/19/2012 5:36:26 PM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop the destruction in 2012 or continue the decline)
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To: Abiotic

This Ohio poll is horse poop..if it were true you wouldn’t see Obama and Biden in Ohio every damn day campaigning..he is campaigning there because either Romney is leading or its a 1-2 point race


35 posted on 09/19/2012 5:36:53 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: SeekAndFind
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year.

Isn't the Rasmussen Poll of Party Identification based on self-identification rather than party registration?

36 posted on 09/19/2012 5:38:29 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: ncalburt
msnbc beat fox out for their entire evening last night. I mean mslsd HAD MORE VIEWERS THAN fox news LAST NIGHT! They have fallen hard to port.

LLS

37 posted on 09/19/2012 5:41:05 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: luvbach1

Win, lose, or draw, someone on the right has to start a news and opinion TV channel with a little bit of intelligence and away from the dumbed down world of the mainstream media. Fox may tilt to the right, but it’s still the mainstream media.


38 posted on 09/19/2012 5:41:07 PM PDT by JacksonCalhoun (CT Yankee in NC Exile)
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To: Abiotic

There is no way in the world that Bork Obunga is up five or seven points in Virginia.


39 posted on 09/19/2012 5:41:53 PM PDT by varmintman
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To: wolf24

Wouldn’t it be better to look at past presidential elections? Since many more people vote in those? In 04 it was even. This is the only one that had as many Republicans as Dems, 08 was d+8.i would also point out each state is different. To ignore polls because of weighting is what losing campaigns do.

I remember reading dem blogs in 04 going nuts about poll weighting. This is a Fox poll it would be hard to believe it is partisan towards Dems.


40 posted on 09/19/2012 5:44:40 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: diamond6
Before you post anymore polling information, check out Hillbuzz.org’s articles on liberal propaganda and their intentional use of these polls to depress morale and voter turnout.

Thank you!!! Finally someone else sees it.
Haven't you noticed how much time the media is spending on "Romney's gaffe"? Meanwhile the Mid East is going up in flames, 3 embassies have been attacked, 1 dead ambassador and 0boober is yucking it up on Late Nap with Letterman then partying with Beyonce and Jay Z. Really does anyone else want to puke!!! This party supposedly had one of those fountains as a centerpiece with French Champagne flowing out of it. I wonder how many families whose homes are being foreclosed would love to have 1/10th what's being spent by this clown and the Wookie in just 1 night.

Barry and Mooch are a modern day Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette, and nobody seems outraged at all.

41 posted on 09/19/2012 5:45:09 PM PDT by YankeeReb
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2012 is NOT 2008. Different dynamics. It’s like the “experts” ignore 2010 and registration shifts


42 posted on 09/19/2012 5:46:56 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: Abiotic

If 0bama wins, the American people, as a whole, suck. Not only because they voted for 0bama, but because they threw away the greatest economy and Constitutional republic in world history.
Romney might as well go down as a full bore conservative at this point. If 0bama wins, it won’t be possible to re-establish the republic in our lifetime. It will be full throttled prepping, revolution or making plans to leave the US.


43 posted on 09/19/2012 5:47:08 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
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To: Leto
I like Romney’s chances here if he is close to +10 with Indies.

Using Ohio PeeeeeW polling from Oct 30, 2008.

Nearly four-in-ten voters (38%) identified themselves as Democrats in 2008 surveys by the Pew Research Center; 34% self-identified as independents; and 28% identified themselves as Republicans. These data are based on more than 28,000 interviews conducted this year by the Pew Research Center. "

These guys are off by -13% for Indy/Other using 2008 stats.

And off by 8.2% IF Indy's in Ohio matches Rasmussen's 29.2% August 2012 for the whole country self-party ID.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1015/democratic-party-identification-swing-states

44 posted on 09/19/2012 5:47:54 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Abiotic

Romney is finished unless he immediately sacks his campaign team leaders Stuart Stevens and Ed Gillespie. These guys are so yesterday and are throwing away an election.


45 posted on 09/19/2012 5:50:24 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Leto

Obama is also running all kinds of ads here in California he
has a new one out today bashing Romney and saying how Romney is going to give the middle class a huge tax increase. I just yelled at the TV and switched it off. Why do you think he needs to run ads here it is a deep blue state.


46 posted on 09/19/2012 5:50:27 PM PDT by funfan
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To: Abiotic

For Pete’s sake, here’s another Soros troll named Abiotic who joined up on 8-7-12.

Do we have any adminsrators left to hit the ZOT button or must we suffer with another DU infiltrator?


47 posted on 09/19/2012 5:52:10 PM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: Abiotic

Ok, I’ll admit, I’m perplexed. Earlier tonight someone tweeted that Fox had Romney up by 1 in OH, and this person is usually reliable.


48 posted on 09/19/2012 5:52:26 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Abiotic

Folks, all polls with a news organization in it’s title, including especially Fox , is garbage. Look at 2008. the best media named poll was CNN coming in #8.

Stick with Rassmussen, he’s been “on” since 2008 even when it wasn’t what we wanted to hear.


49 posted on 09/19/2012 5:54:10 PM PDT by Jake8898
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To: Steelfish

I tend to agree.


50 posted on 09/19/2012 6:00:50 PM PDT by MachIV
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