Posted on 09/19/2012 5:03:33 PM PDT by Abiotic
President Barack Obama has the edge over Republican Mitt Romney in three potentially decisive states in the presidential election.
Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio (49-42 percent) and Virginia (50-43 percent). In Florida, the president holds a five-point edge (49-44 percent).
Obama’s lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error in Ohio and Virginia, and within the margin of sampling error in Florida.
The good news for Romney is that among voters who are “extremely” interested in this year’s election, the races are much tighter. Obama is up by just two points with this group in Virginia (49-47 percent), Florida is tied (48-48 percent), and Romney is up by one point in Ohio (48-47 percent).
Independents are nearly evenly divided in each of the states, as well.
Majorities of voters are unhappy with how things are going in the country, yet in all three states more say they trust Obama than Romney to improve the economy.
Likewise, in each state more voters believe the Obama administration’s policies have helped rather than hurt the economy -- albeit by slim margins: By two points in Florida, three points in Ohio and five points in Virginia.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
As usual, the question this piece of news begs is this : WHAT IS THE D/R/I BREAKDOWN OF THEIR POLL?
The last paragraph shows the tilt in this poll. No way rose numbers are accurate, unless a huge percentage of Americans suddenly got amnesia in the last 30 days.
What should it be?
I'll be these guys are as bad as the outfit Opinion Dynamics that Fox once employed.
Internals? Likely or registered or adults? D/R/I split?
From the article:
More voters than not say it is “pretty neat” to live in a hotly-contested state. Some 45 percent of voters in Virginia and 44 percent in Ohio feel that way, as do 40 percent in Florida. On the other hand, nearly a third in each state says it’s a “big pain.”
..gives you an idea of the questions asked...
If these polls are to be believed, then the electorate is insane.
Of all the polls you have seen, there is one poll that has gotten no attention, it is a poll that has been taken monthly, it is a poll that Doug Ross spotted and promoted on his site. It is the Rasmussen Poll of party identification.
They have party identification results online dating back to 2004. Here are the 2012 numbers through August
That shows a GOP advantage in registration this year.
These polls were wrong in 2008 and they will be proven to be wrong in 2012.
We didn’t believe the polls four years ago, and look what happened. Looks like most voters are comfortable with failure, because their lives are failures under this administration. They would rather stay with what they know than “risk” a Republican in the WH.
I don’t pay any attention to Fox’s polls. They are worthless.
I hope you’re right but Americans have been SIGNIFICANTLY dumbed-down since 0bama took office.
From the poll:
POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION
When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat 42%
Republican 37%
(Independent / Other) 20%
(Don’t know / Refused) 1%
Don't know. But, one based on the 2010 and 2011 turnouts might be a place to start?
Don't know. But, one based on the 2010 and 2011 turnouts might be a place to start?
Sample is +6 D, not sure of the party affiliation numbers for Ohio.
I would not that Romney is up among indies by 4% (42-38 with 11 % undecided, figure ~8-3 split for the challenger.
I like Romney’s chances here if he is close to +10 with Indies.
Just saw Karl (spit) Rove on O’Really and he had his electoral map up. Pretty sure all three of those states he had as tossups (for what that’s worth).
I don’t know why he’s leading here in Florida, except perhaps that the liberal snowbirds who vote in more than one state are probably starting to come back.
Absolutely the worst polling group in cable .
I wonder if Sheppy is calling the shots on these poll criteria since he
In the news div .
These polls are more way off than NBC and that says it all .
Fox has shifted left and they are getting crushed now .
Good riddance to that phony network .
In 2008 , 80 % or more of the staff voted for Obama .
Need I say more .
He isn’t leading !
It’s bad polling
No. You don't base Presidential cycle turnout models on off year elections.
No, you’re right. However, the numbers from those elections at least indicate that the 2008 numbers are likely invalid.
So the FL and VA samples are +5D looks like they are using the 2008 turnout model. If more concern is Obama having small leads with the indies (+2FL,+1Vir) although there are about 10% undecided that should go 7-3 for Romney.Which should win him both states.
Also keep in mid Obama has been spending tons of money in these states and from here on out things spending will be dominated by Romney.
For Ohio:
“POLITICAL IDENTIFICATION When you think about politics, do you think of yourself as a Democrat or a Republican?”
16-18 Sept - Dem 42%, Rep 36%, Ind/Other 21%, Don’t know/Refused 1%
oh+7 fl +5 so far
Before you post anymore polling information, check out Hillbuzz.org’s articles on liberal propaganda and their intentional use of these polls to depress morale and voter turnout.
That chart is for a national poll.
The breakdown will be different state by state. California, for example will have more democrats. Texas will have more Republicans.
As an Ohioan for many decades, my sense of this state is that it’s just about evenly split with a bit of an edge — not much — to Republicans. We have a republican House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court, and Secty of State.
That should say something about voting trends to anyone trying to be honest.
Fox polls are always terribly unreliable and always seem to be less favorable to the GOP.
Is this a statistician’s standard, to use the prior election year’s turnout numbers for every poll? Because I have yet to see a poll that varies from this model.
And yet the Dems and MSM still portray Fox News as a mouthpiece for the far right. If 80% of the FNC staff (excluding contributors)voted for Obama (hard to believe)in 2008, I don't think that percentage will again despite the network's perceived movement to the left.
This Ohio poll is horse poop..if it were true you wouldn’t see Obama and Biden in Ohio every damn day campaigning..he is campaigning there because either Romney is leading or its a 1-2 point race
Isn't the Rasmussen Poll of Party Identification based on self-identification rather than party registration?
LLS
Win, lose, or draw, someone on the right has to start a news and opinion TV channel with a little bit of intelligence and away from the dumbed down world of the mainstream media. Fox may tilt to the right, but it’s still the mainstream media.
There is no way in the world that Bork Obunga is up five or seven points in Virginia.
Wouldn’t it be better to look at past presidential elections? Since many more people vote in those? In 04 it was even. This is the only one that had as many Republicans as Dems, 08 was d+8.i would also point out each state is different. To ignore polls because of weighting is what losing campaigns do.
I remember reading dem blogs in 04 going nuts about poll weighting. This is a Fox poll it would be hard to believe it is partisan towards Dems.
Thank you!!! Finally someone else sees it.
Haven't you noticed how much time the media is spending on "Romney's gaffe"? Meanwhile the Mid East is going up in flames, 3 embassies have been attacked, 1 dead ambassador and 0boober is yucking it up on Late Nap with Letterman then partying with Beyonce and Jay Z. Really does anyone else want to puke!!! This party supposedly had one of those fountains as a centerpiece with French Champagne flowing out of it. I wonder how many families whose homes are being foreclosed would love to have 1/10th what's being spent by this clown and the Wookie in just 1 night.
Barry and Mooch are a modern day Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette, and nobody seems outraged at all.
2012 is NOT 2008. Different dynamics. It’s like the “experts” ignore 2010 and registration shifts
If 0bama wins, the American people, as a whole, suck. Not only because they voted for 0bama, but because they threw away the greatest economy and Constitutional republic in world history.
Romney might as well go down as a full bore conservative at this point. If 0bama wins, it won’t be possible to re-establish the republic in our lifetime. It will be full throttled prepping, revolution or making plans to leave the US.
Using Ohio PeeeeeW polling from Oct 30, 2008.
Nearly four-in-ten voters (38%) identified themselves as Democrats in 2008 surveys by the Pew Research Center; 34% self-identified as independents; and 28% identified themselves as Republicans. These data are based on more than 28,000 interviews conducted this year by the Pew Research Center. "
These guys are off by -13% for Indy/Other using 2008 stats.
And off by 8.2% IF Indy's in Ohio matches Rasmussen's 29.2% August 2012 for the whole country self-party ID.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1015/democratic-party-identification-swing-states
Romney is finished unless he immediately sacks his campaign team leaders Stuart Stevens and Ed Gillespie. These guys are so yesterday and are throwing away an election.
Obama is also running all kinds of ads here in California he
has a new one out today bashing Romney and saying how Romney is going to give the middle class a huge tax increase. I just yelled at the TV and switched it off. Why do you think he needs to run ads here it is a deep blue state.
For Pete’s sake, here’s another Soros troll named Abiotic who joined up on 8-7-12.
Do we have any adminsrators left to hit the ZOT button or must we suffer with another DU infiltrator?
Ok, I’ll admit, I’m perplexed. Earlier tonight someone tweeted that Fox had Romney up by 1 in OH, and this person is usually reliable.
Folks, all polls with a news organization in it’s title, including especially Fox , is garbage. Look at 2008. the best media named poll was CNN coming in #8.
Stick with Rassmussen, he’s been “on” since 2008 even when it wasn’t what we wanted to hear.
I tend to agree.
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