Skip to comments.Analyzing Virginia Polls - How Romney is Actually Leading in Polls That Say Obama Is Leading
Posted on 09/20/2012 9:49:38 AM PDT by profit_guy
Four recent presidential polls for the state of Virginia show that Obama has leads of 3, 4, 8, and 5 points. But the data tell a different story. If you are interested in polls, this post offers a chance to look at polls by actually analyzing data, rather than simply looking at the final "result" that the media release. The method used here to calculate is open and honest, and offers a data-driven perspective of what story the polls might actually tell. Using the same data - but actually analyzing it - shows possible Romney leads of 4, 8, 2, and 2 points.
Headline Richmond Times Dispatch this morning:
“Two polls favor Kaine, Obama”
My gut reaction is the Allen campaign is lagging whereas I am hopeful Obama will lose VA because of an ABO vote rather than a Romney vote.
Sigh...this is 2008 all over again. There were so many threads on FR back in 2008 in which posters proved McLame was ahead in polls that showed him behind. Wasn’t true then; probably not true now. I hate to sound negative, but this just seems like deja vu to me.
Just heard on Fox that Ozingo is leading by 7. These polls are enough to make you crazy.
The pollsters and media types, who want to try and suppress the Romney vote are wasting their time. As a matter of fact, it just might backfire on them. They just don’t know that we cannot wait until November 6th gets here. Instead of Romney supporters saying: “Aw, it’s not use to vote; Obama’s gonna win”, it could cause the already, non-too-enthusiastic Obama supporters to not bother voting because “he’s gonna win and he doesn’t need my vote”. I heard people say that in times past, when the polls showed their guy way ahead. They said: “He doesn’t need my vote to win.” Yeah; go ahead, fudge those polls; you dummies.
The sudden post-DNC convention reversal of Obama’s fortunes is, IMO, manufactured and a psy op to deflate Republicans, make many think going to the polls is just not worth it.
Fine, if you believe this, then get out of the way.
It’s hardly McCain deja vu. McCain lost IN and NC, Romney is winning them to the point Obama has almost conceded them already. Other states Mccain lost like CO, WI, IA and more are looking good for Romney. So how is it deja vu?
Due to reptile expos and other snake related journeys, I’ve been to the Fairfax/Manassas area quite frequently in the last month and a half and Romney signs are everywhere.
Anecdotal, sure but for every sign you see, there’s 200 people of like mind.
[a “statistical average” thing]
I have noticed a lot of sample manipulation in recent phone polls which I have answered.
After you are done answering to the main poll questions, they ask a series of demographic questions, supposedly to ensure even distribution of various groups.
The most recent one was really invasive, i.e. your religion affiliation answer caused a salvo of irrelevant questions like how often do you go to your church. The only reason for such curiosity is to make you impatient and drop the call, therefore making your answers to the main questions void.
Resist the temptation and answer fully to make your voice heard!
Also, I claimed to be an 18-29 year old Pacific Islander girl with no party affiliation - let them try to dismiss that! :)
Polls show Obama is leading. Good. I hope it stays that way because then Romney will win. Think about it.
I did an off the cuff re-adjustment on one of the Virginia polls on here a couple of days ago and ended up with Romney ahead by 4-5%. This is nothing that someone who can kinda-sorta do math in their head couldn’t do.
No, those of use who understand polling knew McCain was never ahead.
The Pro Mccain analysis here in 2008 was all based on an assumption that there was a “Bradly effect” in the polling. It assumed white voters were afraid to tell pollsters they were voting against Obama.
This year the analysis here is based on a hard crunching of the numbers in the polls, not an assumption of how racial politics is effecting the polling.
As I already stated, FR was rife with posts about how poll internals were wrong, and that McCain would win in a shocker. That's what this thread is about. It's called Analyzing Virginia Polls - How Romney is Actually Leading in Polls That Say Obama Is Leading. I'm saying there tons of such posts in 2008 up to the day of the election. I believed those guys then. I'm not so sure this time.
You probably also need to be a transgender lesbian (male lesbian?) as well, just to make sure. :>)
The difference is that the internals for the polls in 2008 were not nearly as unrealistic as they are this time around. Math doesn't lie, even if pollsters and the MSM do.
Come on folks; don’t lose heart. Remember: Gallup Polling had Jimmy Carter leading Ronald Reagan by 6 points on October 27, 1980, just about a week before the election. Reagan won by 10 points. That is a 16 point differential. Relax. I believe the tide is going to turn big-time for Romney after the debates.
That would cause another series of questions on technicality of my relations. Worth trying though :)
The Obama based polling firms (i.e. any of them based within the MSM like Reuters/Ipsos or NYTimes) will continue to oversample Democrats in larger and larger numbers to “show” how Obama’s winning. Right now two or three of the ones in this article are using a D35 / R25 split - and the race is STILL within the margin for error!
They will skew the respondent pool however they have to in order to protect Obama. I’m only partially kidding when I say I expect to see an article which reads “Obama takes 55-45 lead in latest poll!” with “respondents comprise the staff at the White House” in 3 point font buried deep within.
There is a saying that goes “torture statistics long enough and they’ll say anything you want”. This is a prime example of that truism.
When it comes to polls, always, always, always, look at the sample sizes and methodology (likely voters, registered voters, adults etc...). Always.
I hate to say it, but I think we are in trouble.
1) Mitt has allowed himself to be defined
2) Mitt cannot get his message through ads or MSM
3) Mitt does not seem to be taking the gloves off
4) Mitt does not seem to want to spend the money.
McCain Style Campaign = Campaign Style Result
Of course, if you want to believe polling that assumes Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008.
Anyone really think that is a rational assumption?
The only thing that matters is voter turnout. Obama voters are more likely to stay home. Will they? Pray for rain on election day.
Party affiliation? Republican.
I’m praying that Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, LasVegas, Reno, Madison, Milwaukee, Detroit, Flint, Cleveland, and Columbus will have unseasonably cold weather with blowing rain all day on election day, November 6. And, that there will be an early blizzard on in Denver and Boulder.
That's a nail-biting answer! Likely ignored due to improbability of such combination.
Also that “Puma” (?) thing. The belief that Hillary voters would vote for McCain to spite 0bama.
I have explained this to people here a hundred times and apparently no one is listening so I'll try it one more time.
Working in GOP county HQ in 2004 and 2008 we were told EXACTLY the same thing: "If we get out our base, we will win. That's all there is to it."
That was absolutely true in 2004. Do you know why? Because REPUBLICANS VOTED FOR THE REPUBLICAN.
In 2008, we had the same formula: If we get out Rs, we win. So all the polls said that McCain was losing, but all the internals said the Rs were turning out.
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
Now, if you really, really think that 25-30% of Republicans will vote for Obama this time around and that no Dems will vote for Romney, feel free to be depressed.
But I happen to think that we are back to 2004: that if the Rs turn out, we win huge, because a LOT of indies (a majority) will vote for Romney and Republicans will turn out in slightly higher % than Dems.
I continue to think that Romney has a real, unadjusted/unjimmied lead of 2-4 points nationally about about 300-310 EVS. But you can call me crazy. . . just as they did here on FR in 2004 when the "exit polls" said at 4:00 that Kerry had won and I was screaming to everyone that our internal poll flushing showed Bush had already won.
I live in Loudoun County and I can second what you are seeing.
In 2008, Obama signs were everywhere in NOVA.
In 2012, not so much. Even my bluest, Prius-driving neighbor has nary a sign this time.
You should take Sunday jaunt out on Mosby HWY/RT 50 towards the hinterlands that border Winchester.
It’s awash with Romney.
Agonizingly beautiful area, too.
[yeah, it was sort of a “pilgrimage” for me]
Good post, LS... thanks!
Except that has to do with voter turnout and enthusiasm. McCain didn’t get the turnout and Obama did. People were assuming a big fear of Obama vote that did not happen.
This time around their is a huge voter enthusiasm to vote AGAINST OBama...even if Romney isn’t exciting..because he is a known quantity. Obama isn’t firing up his base as much as 2008.
A lot of the polls are leaning toward a 2008 model, rather than a 2010 model...which would be a Romney blowout win. Obama will get better turnout than 2010 though, because he is on the ticket.
But, it won’t be 2008.
That alone puts many polls in question.
Yes, that’s true. Not too many Republicans in the Gov’t Bureaucracy. :-)
2008 was a lousy year. not only did you have “hope and change”, you had everybody depressed by the lousy economic news, which they mostly blamed on the “party in power”, which they mistakenly were told again and again were republicans, even though the democrats controlled congress.
And it was clear by election night that the race was over, which further depressed republican turnout.
In Virginia, we don’t register by party. But you can at least see who people vote for when they show up at the polls. In 2008, people voting were voting democrat, seen in the congressional races as well as presidential.
By 2009, the republicans were back voting. The republicans beat the democrats by about 56% to 40%. And again in 2010, republicans beat democrats by about 56% to 40%.
Now, could I believe we’d retreat? Maybe, but republicans in this state are pretty popular. But I don’t see how democrats win the turnout race this time around. People just aren’t that thrilled about Obama, and frankly, there are neighboring states that have real challenges so the democrats can’t send their operatives from Pennsylvania and North Carolina into Virginia this year.
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
I believe Churchill said that Democracy is like a raft. It wont sink, but your feet are always wet.
It feels like were in up to our knees now, tho . . .
You just ave to ask a few basic questions:
1) how many Republicans who voted for Zero I 08 will vote for him again? (I predict 0)
2) how many independents will he lose? I think the number is 65-70% .
3) how many "huts" and blacks who voted in 08 will not vote? I think that total number fall by 10, maybe 20%.
4) How many Catholics and Jews will desert him? 25%? 30? When you get outside polls, it gets very, very tough to find a way for Zero to win.
If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!
We went to the fair in Bluemont on Saturday, and drove back on the Snickersville turnpike. 99% Romney signs, easily.
permit me my own anecdotal evidence. My daughter goes to HS in the DelRay neighborhood of Alexandria. In 2008, the litte row house yards were blanketed with Obama signs. i have seen none thus far, but they DO have signs for local down the ticket candidates.
Some pollster called today. I told him to call back November 7th.
Frankly, I quit listening to all whiners (ours and theirs!) weeks ago -- immediately following the Republican convention when there was this collective "day of despair" that even the known conservative talk show hosts were discussing.
Watching some of the repeated fatalistic posts on Free Republic makes me very happy these posters were not there at Lexington and Concord.
I am fighting for the very freedom and future liberty of my five grandchildren this election cycle and sniveling whiners (wherever they be found) can stay at home and lick their wounds (or whatever they do when feeling sorry for themselves).
We need to fight ONE battle today, and for each of the days leading up to November 6 --- Obama Must Go!!.
AFTER that has been accomplished we can talk about pulling all our guys to the right.
Maybe they’re not so hot about advertising their stupidity this time around.
I *rarely* see 0 bumper stickers and we have *all* the suburban freaks heading west on I70 every Friday night and back east on Sunday.
There’s just...’a lack’.
I appear to be on the list for an ongoing phone tracking poll. Every week I get a call that asks the same questions.
One reason at least one poll is not reporting accurate numbers is that I lie to them - but just on every other question I am asked. I always select that I’m voting for Obama.
Statistics is a funny thing. “Poll Sampling” error is a reflection of the possible statistical variance of a sampled subgroup. For 1000 people, it’s on the order of 3% “error”. - but only if they tell the truth.
What the statistics don’t and can’t show is the error inserted by people like me who completely lie on some questions, and tell the truth on others. My selective truthfulness is something that cannot be quantified by a roomful of pollsters and statisticians. The error inserted by just one sample like me greatly diminishes the credibility of any conclusions they draw.
I figure if they call me uninvited, they deserve what they get.
I could just be a cranky SOB, but it makes me smile to think about the hopeful Obama-supporting pollsters compiling my data point thinking that their guy is “looking good in Virginia”
Romney may well lose but if so, narrowly. This is no 2008. Many of these polls are just implausible. Like Senate polls in WI showing a radical lesbo ahead of the popular Former Governor, give me a break.
And any poll showing Osama leading in NC, ridiculous, he won 49-49 last time with epic Black and retarded White college turnout.
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