Skip to comments.Analyzing Virginia Polls - How Romney is Actually Leading in Polls That Say Obama Is Leading
Posted on 09/20/2012 9:49:38 AM PDT by profit_guy
Four recent presidential polls for the state of Virginia show that Obama has leads of 3, 4, 8, and 5 points. But the data tell a different story. If you are interested in polls, this post offers a chance to look at polls by actually analyzing data, rather than simply looking at the final "result" that the media release. The method used here to calculate is open and honest, and offers a data-driven perspective of what story the polls might actually tell. Using the same data - but actually analyzing it - shows possible Romney leads of 4, 8, 2, and 2 points.
Headline Richmond Times Dispatch this morning:
“Two polls favor Kaine, Obama”
My gut reaction is the Allen campaign is lagging whereas I am hopeful Obama will lose VA because of an ABO vote rather than a Romney vote.
Sigh...this is 2008 all over again. There were so many threads on FR back in 2008 in which posters proved McLame was ahead in polls that showed him behind. Wasn’t true then; probably not true now. I hate to sound negative, but this just seems like deja vu to me.
Just heard on Fox that Ozingo is leading by 7. These polls are enough to make you crazy.
The pollsters and media types, who want to try and suppress the Romney vote are wasting their time. As a matter of fact, it just might backfire on them. They just don’t know that we cannot wait until November 6th gets here. Instead of Romney supporters saying: “Aw, it’s not use to vote; Obama’s gonna win”, it could cause the already, non-too-enthusiastic Obama supporters to not bother voting because “he’s gonna win and he doesn’t need my vote”. I heard people say that in times past, when the polls showed their guy way ahead. They said: “He doesn’t need my vote to win.” Yeah; go ahead, fudge those polls; you dummies.
The sudden post-DNC convention reversal of Obama’s fortunes is, IMO, manufactured and a psy op to deflate Republicans, make many think going to the polls is just not worth it.
Fine, if you believe this, then get out of the way.
It’s hardly McCain deja vu. McCain lost IN and NC, Romney is winning them to the point Obama has almost conceded them already. Other states Mccain lost like CO, WI, IA and more are looking good for Romney. So how is it deja vu?
Due to reptile expos and other snake related journeys, I’ve been to the Fairfax/Manassas area quite frequently in the last month and a half and Romney signs are everywhere.
Anecdotal, sure but for every sign you see, there’s 200 people of like mind.
[a “statistical average” thing]
I have noticed a lot of sample manipulation in recent phone polls which I have answered.
After you are done answering to the main poll questions, they ask a series of demographic questions, supposedly to ensure even distribution of various groups.
The most recent one was really invasive, i.e. your religion affiliation answer caused a salvo of irrelevant questions like how often do you go to your church. The only reason for such curiosity is to make you impatient and drop the call, therefore making your answers to the main questions void.
Resist the temptation and answer fully to make your voice heard!
Also, I claimed to be an 18-29 year old Pacific Islander girl with no party affiliation - let them try to dismiss that! :)
Polls show Obama is leading. Good. I hope it stays that way because then Romney will win. Think about it.
I did an off the cuff re-adjustment on one of the Virginia polls on here a couple of days ago and ended up with Romney ahead by 4-5%. This is nothing that someone who can kinda-sorta do math in their head couldn’t do.
No, those of use who understand polling knew McCain was never ahead.
The Pro Mccain analysis here in 2008 was all based on an assumption that there was a “Bradly effect” in the polling. It assumed white voters were afraid to tell pollsters they were voting against Obama.
This year the analysis here is based on a hard crunching of the numbers in the polls, not an assumption of how racial politics is effecting the polling.
As I already stated, FR was rife with posts about how poll internals were wrong, and that McCain would win in a shocker. That's what this thread is about. It's called Analyzing Virginia Polls - How Romney is Actually Leading in Polls That Say Obama Is Leading. I'm saying there tons of such posts in 2008 up to the day of the election. I believed those guys then. I'm not so sure this time.
You probably also need to be a transgender lesbian (male lesbian?) as well, just to make sure. :>)
The difference is that the internals for the polls in 2008 were not nearly as unrealistic as they are this time around. Math doesn't lie, even if pollsters and the MSM do.
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