Skip to comments.Election 2012: Iowa President: Romney 47% Obama 44%
Posted on 09/20/2012 11:20:44 AM PDT by nhwingut
Mitt Romney remains slightly ahead in the swing state of Iowa.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Romney with 47% support to President Obamas 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This does NOT jive with his daily poll showing Ozero ahead today.
According to Ras Romeny is down 2 nationally but up 2 in Iowa.
Makes no sense unless this poll was taken a few day ago and national poll is upto date.
Shepard Smith would say Blah that’s in the Margins of error LOL
Swing states are what matters. Hussein can have the leftist poll bumps from NY, MA, MD and CA.
You could easily be up in swing states and down nationally.
We needed some good news today. I guess this is it.
Sure, it could make sense... Obama’s support from Democrat moochers angry at the 47% remark may have spiked in places like CA, NY or PA.
Oops. Another Obama state falls to Red.
But to successfully predict the outcome, a poll has to include all the illegal voters too...
Oh yeah? Well I'll see your 44% and raise you 8%...
Remember, Iowa is 98% white. It makes perfect sense to me in this particular election.
It may have something to do with undecideds. There may be more undecideds nationally than in certain individual states. Also, when you’re polling daily, if it is different individuals, then there could be a fluctuation of a few points day to day. Just guessing. I still don’t think, or maybe it’s wishful thinking on my part, that Obama will get more than 48% nationwide when all is said and done. Personally, I hope it’s less than that. My hands are shaking as I type just thinking of the election. I am so nervous it’s affecting my health. I wish it was Thanksgiving. Even Halloween isn’t going to be much fun this year.
The reality is there is never a significant disparity between national numbers and what you would expect in swing states on election day.
Ras’s national poll is a 3- day rolling vg. This is a one-sample poll.
With Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire red, the path to 270 becomes much easier for RR.
It was taken yesterday:
“The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on September 19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. “
I’m completely befuddled by these contradictions, but will take any shred of good news available.
Any rise by Leftist in CA or NY is matched by conservatives inbetween CA and NY.
The fact is on election day there are not these significant variations.
Is it my imagination, or does it seem that there is a trend towards Romney the past few days? Especially since his 47% remarks were publicized and all the mess in the Middle East?
Romey is up with Gallup and generally down with Ras.
The fanatical “dead enders” that voted O last time; may be deflated and sit out.
I really really really don’t get all the teeth gnashing folks are doing here..
Romney seems to be running a very solid, controlled, campaign.. while I don’t agree the polls are properly picking up what’s going on the ground fully, lets look at the trending.
NC was supposed to be a hold for Obama... So much so the DNC put their convention there based on it... Reality.. Its now OFF THE MAP.
IA again, going out of play.
FL, OH, WI and VA will also soon be out of play. While the campaign may not be flashy or have the red meat attacks we would personally like to see, the trending and movement is all going the right way.
I do not believe Obama has any chance in hell of holding any state he didn’t carry by at least 55% of the vote in 2008.
Time will tell.
In Iowa we need to get rid of Obayma and Leonard Boswell. I would love to add Tom Harkin into that mix as well.
I’m working to get King, Latham and any other Republican on the list elected. I’m sick of these libs.
The young man dating my daughter (a Democrat by the way) told me that he has heard from some of Boswell’s aids that they have to walk him to the chamber to vote and after he’s done voting they said he asks them “what did I just vote on?”. He swears this is true. Somehow I believe him.
From the sounds of it, Boswell is pretty much feeble and out of it quite a bit of the time.
Maybe that’s what makes him a perfect Democrat.
No it is alll about race. It just so happens we get good news in the whiter states this week, Iowa and NH, yet the blacker states of Ohio and Virginia seem to be slipping away.
Zero’s surge may be mostly in the ‘blue’ states.
“FL, OH, WI and VA will also soon be out of play.”
Out of play for whom?
Well, I’d hold the champagne on Wisconsin (look at RCP), but throw NC in there. My state of Virginia is having a few identity problems at present and I’m hoping voters here will see the light.
I’m hoping that the cheating isn’t so bad that the outrage, the seething disgust for America’s misguided foray into the folly of affirmative action for all cannot triumph. America’s First Black President - a joke, an incompetent one with evil intent not borne in this country. So much misguided hope, and so little change for anything good.
If you believe the garbage coming out of the MSM, Obama’s campaign is taking off like a rocket. The MSM aren’t even spinning facts anymore. They’re just spinning fiction.
Are you kidding? We are having a great day:
1. Gallup 7-day average has Obama 47, Romney 47, with Romney rising throughout the last several days; trend line is up, not down, for Romney
2. MSM getting egg on their faces with Libya bombing + hysteria over Romney 47% gaffe
3. Tim Kaine steps into verbal dog dirt in Virginia senate debate
4. Georgia Insider Advantage poll has poll has Romney +15 (McCain won the state by just 5)
5. Jake Tappert ABC Political Punch MSM blog flooded with anti-Obama anger re Libyan bombing and lies from the Obama Administration
6. Immediate layoffs announced from Bank of America + American Airlines among other employers; leading economic indicators down; manufacturing down for 5th straight month
7. Restore Our Future has new ad up in Wisconsin, Michigan called “Disappearing” that FINALLY addresses the real unemployment rate
8. Paul Ryan receives standing ovation from House colleagues at GOP conference
Out of play for Obama.
No, it makes sense. In swing states (by definition that means fairly balanced), there are more (53%++) voters who are glad that Romney will do something about the wagon load full of freeloaders they are pulling.
The one interesting thing that is happening (and IA is a key part) is that it is becoming theoretically possible for Romney to (barely) win without winning Ohio.
I suspect we may as well resign ourselves to the fact the polling is all over the place because the pollsters are not real sure how to poll anymore. They are trying to figure out how to poll a country that overwhelmingly voted FOR Obama in 2008 then overwhelmingly rejected him in 2010.
I really think Romney, if things aren’t better after the first debate, should abandon Ohio and Virginia and focus on Florida, Nevada, and the Midwest.
It is very possible to have a winner of the popular vote but not win the electoral college again. I can see that happening to either side.
I agree with Dick Morris. Historically, 80 percent of the undecideds break for the challenger on Election day. That would make it Romney: 51% Obama: 46% (I gave Obama the 1 percent who did not want to answer; apparently.
Take out the polls that over samples Democrat +11 in WI and things do not look so dark in WI
The problem with RCP is they treat all polls as equal. They are not.
Exactly... the recent polling data for FL, OH, WI and VA is rather grim right now.
Actually reweigh the sample in the Ohio-VA polls to match the current party registration for each state and things do not look so good for 0.
Pretty easy to show your side up when you over sample Dems double digits.
Anyone really think Obama is going to do substantially better in those 2 states in 2012 then he did in 2008?
The Media pollsters think he will. I don’t agree
I thought Wisconsin was very competitive. Do we have a poll that puts Romney ahead?
Not when you reweigh the polls to reflect current voter registration in those states.
The polls that look so grim are assuming Obama will do better in 2012 then he did in those state in 2008.
Really believe Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?
Every battleground poll over the past couple days has Romney ahead or improving. Looks like that MSM hitjob to try to kill Romney’s campaign over the past week or two hasn’t worked too well.
If Obama gets...
NV - Likely according to approval rating and Paul-tards
PA - More skeptical recently, but seems to be safe Obama
then he only needs Virginia, Michigan and Ohio and he wins.
Virginia might be slipping out of reach unless the Romney camp does something soon. Ohio (ignoring weighted polls) seems to be close, and Michigan, while it leans toward Obama, has 10% undecided, which is good news for Romney.
One thing is for sure, we need Florida. There can be no question about us winning Florida. The recent story about Dem registration failure looks good for that state.
OK! OK. I got it. It has been a pretty good day.
But the O vs. R Rasmussen poll was, at least for me, a bit of a downer. The move to O +2 just looks like more than the normal polling “noise”. We need things trending for Romney not Obama.
But in Virginia, and to a lesser extent Ohio, Obama’s base is black. They are going to turn out in droves.
Not if they go to church.
Actually the polls are from the same day. It entirely possible. The Rass national poll shows an abnormally good day for Obama. That could be a statistical blip, not a new trend.
We will have to wait 4-5 days to see if that is a new trend or statistical noise.