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NEW POLL: SMITH WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR (PA)
Susquehanna Polling ^ | 9/20/2012

Posted on 09/20/2012 4:45:44 PM PDT by LS

With less than seven weeks remaining until Election Day, a new poll conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Pennsylvania Republican Party shows United States Senate candidate Tom Smith within the margin of error - trailing Democratic Senator Bob Casey 42% - 45%.

"It's no surprise this race has continued to tighten as voters are beginning to better understand the differences between Bob Casey, an ineffective career politician and Tom Smith, a self-made job creator," said Smith Campaign Manager Jim Conroy. "In November, voters will have a clear choice between Bob Casey's support for job-killing policies, including higher taxes, record debt and bigger government versus Tom Smith's detailed plan to reduce the debt, simplify the tax code, and grow the economy to create jobs."

"Our campaign is humbled by the outpouring of support we've received from across the Commonwealth and encouraged by the momentum we continue to see in public polling," Conroy added.

The Susquehanna survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 15-17.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; pa2012; senate
Again, seems to me if in state after state the senate candidates are running this strongly, it's near impossible for the top of the ticket to be running behind. In one or two, yes, but not in state after state.
1 posted on 09/20/2012 4:45:50 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS

From looking at all the methodology (when possible) it seems pretty clear that Romney has at least a %5 lead. Other things lead me to believe it is going to be a disaster for the RATs.


2 posted on 09/20/2012 4:51:37 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: LS

I think you are right, no matter how much the other side spins it. If Tom Smith makes it to the Senate over Bob Casey, you can bet your bippy that Pa. goes for Romney.

We’ve got to overcome the Philly vote at least but I think it can be done.


3 posted on 09/20/2012 4:59:12 PM PDT by SueRae (See it? Hell, I can TASTE November from my house!)
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To: LS

You people DO realize that the margin of error also runs the other way?


4 posted on 09/20/2012 5:01:11 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: arrogantsob

Word is Rommney will be putting lot of $$ in “ground game”
to turn out vote

Also many “pubs are motivated to give Zero the boot this year so have to factor that in

Hopefully can jack up the turnout this year.....


5 posted on 09/20/2012 5:01:22 PM PDT by njslim (St)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Sure. The problem is, if all the senate races (i.e., CT) are showing surprising strength for the Republican, it’s highly unlikely that it will run the other way. Certainly possible, but I see a trend. Perhaps MD is the only state where a Dem senator is having an easy time, with FL a close second.


6 posted on 09/20/2012 5:17:20 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: njslim

How many times have we hoped for PA? Wright em off!


7 posted on 09/20/2012 5:18:47 PM PDT by chesty_puller (Viet Nam 1970-71 He who shed blood with me shall forever be my brother. Shak.)
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Mister Smith goes to Washington!


8 posted on 09/20/2012 5:29:06 PM PDT by prr1957
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To: LS

Sounds like Romney should hire Smith to write his slogans for him. Not sure I’ve heard any statement that simple, clear and succinct from Romney as to why he should replace Obummer.


9 posted on 09/20/2012 5:32:21 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: LS

Mike Lee told Mark Levin he thought Sobhani entrance in the race in MD would put MD in play


10 posted on 09/20/2012 5:33:29 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: arrogantsob
Other things lead me to believe it is going to be a disaster for the RATs.

I've noticed poll after poll that the Dems are being over polled, but however, Independents are also being under polled by large percentages and where Obama is losing the Indies by large percentages.

If this holds to be true, Obama is going to go down big.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/16/can-obama-get-reelected-losing-the-independent-vote/

11 posted on 09/20/2012 5:48:42 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: njslim

Word is Rommney will be putting lot of $$ in “ground game”
to turn out vote


Live in Fla . Have had two different phone polls. Well organized, good questions and segmentation.

Someone is out there getting the ground level truth.

Neither were Gallup or Rassmussen.


12 posted on 09/20/2012 5:55:26 PM PDT by patriotspride
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To: LS

Pennsylvania has disappointed me too many times for me to hold out a lot of hope, but it’s hard to dismiss the GOP candidate out of hand in either the Senate or presidential race when the last two statewide races in PA were won by Gov. Tom Corbett (R) and Sen. Pat Toomey (R). And it’s not like these guys are RINOs, either.


13 posted on 09/20/2012 6:19:33 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Alberta's Child

I know the feeling. Which is the bigger tease, PA or NJ.


14 posted on 09/20/2012 6:43:59 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Bob Casey’s picture would be in the dictionary next to the phrase “empty suit”. This guy lives off his dad’s name and is non-existent until the election.


15 posted on 09/20/2012 7:05:06 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: Alberta's Child

My mother is from PA - many of my family still live there

Back in the 1980’s my late uncle, a dyed in the wool old time Democrat (was ward captain), confessed that was voting Republican because could not stomach the liber5al crap
especially welfare

PA voters, even “RATS as fairly conservative socially

All is not lost......


16 posted on 09/20/2012 7:34:13 PM PDT by njslim (St)
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To: LS

Casey is the most boring candidate in the world. He basically has his fathers name and ran against the most hated politician in modern politics (I know many here can’t accept this, but Santorum was sent packing by 17 points for very very valid reasons by the voters of PA) He basically phoned in his last campaign.

I have seen much in the terms of ads for either candidate myself, but its hardly surprising to me that Casey isn’t mopping up this election he’s completely a wooden board.

The idea that PA is lost is nonsense, BEST Obama can do is win this state by a few points this go round, and if Romney were to bring the fight here, I personally think he could win the state. These polls showing Obama up by margins as big or bigger than he won the state in 2008 are la la land folks.


17 posted on 09/20/2012 7:41:15 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: njslim

Philly is what skews PA... You come out of Philly without getting overwhelmed and you’ll win the state.

You get rid of Philly and PA would as reliably red as many southern states.


18 posted on 09/20/2012 7:46:22 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: LS

Thing is, Smith’s been running some very effective ads, starting with slamming Casey (with his pasty blank-expressioned face on screen) and then moving to some of his own accomplishments and what he wants to do for Penna. - but I’ve seen no Romney ads, at least in the Philly market, at all - and examples of his ads I’ve seen from other areas seem lame and unfocused - Smith’s coattails might pull Romney over the line if he had a bit of a presence in the state......


19 posted on 09/20/2012 9:15:52 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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I live in South Western Pennsylvania...

and here we refer Bob Casey as the church mouse...

he has been hiding from us for six years...but we have a big piece of cheese for him...

we plan to send him home to his wife...he may be the Late Gov. son..but in name only...

he does nothing for his constitutes..write to him and he sends a form letter pertaining to nothing you asked him..all Democrat talking points..the guy is a loser...

VOTE FOR TIM SMITH in Pennsylvania for the Senate...

20 posted on 09/21/2012 12:01:36 AM PDT by haircutter (.)
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To: haircutter
yo Carole....TOM not Tim....time to go to bed woman..shut her down...nite all...
21 posted on 09/21/2012 12:03:44 AM PDT by haircutter (.)
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To: RIghtwardHo

Not to mention that Susquehanna polls tend to be outliers biased in the R direction, though the internals aren’t posted for this particular survey.

The Casey pup is among the dimmest of the dim bulbs and he shouldn’t be difficult to beat — one debate without teleprompters or earpieces would do him in for sure, but he’d never agree to that.

The statewide R candidates won narrowly in 2010 in a low-turout, off year election. This year the urban welfare monkey base and Democrat vote fraud machine will be fully energized. Smith has only the slimmest of chances here, but at least he’s trying (unlike the milquetoast at the top of the ticket).


22 posted on 09/21/2012 4:51:59 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: Red Steel

It probably would not be real inaccurate to believe the electorate is 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 and base polls on that ration.
However, as you not these are often 40-D, 33-R, 27-I or worse clearly an attempt to produce a lead for The Disaster.

Adding to this is refusing to poll likely voters exclusively.


23 posted on 09/22/2012 12:04:39 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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