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Extreme weather: Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to...
NATURE ^ | 19 September 2012 | Masthead Editorial

Posted on 09/20/2012 8:01:24 PM PDT by neverdem

Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.

As climate change proceeds — which the record summer melt of Arctic sea-ice suggests it is doing at a worrying pace — nations, communities and individual citizens may begin to seek compensation for losses and damage arising from global warming. Climate scientists should be prepared for their skills one day to be probed in court. Whether there is a legal basis for such claims, such as that brought against the energy company ExxonMobil by the remote Alaskan community of Kivalina, which is facing coastal erosion and flooding as the sea ice retreats, is far from certain, however. So lawyers, insurers and climate negotiators are watching with interest the emerging ability, arising from improvements in...

--snip--

At a workshop last week in Oxford, UK, convened by the Attribution of Climate-related Events group — a loose coalition of scientists from both sides of the Atlantic — some speakers questioned whether event attribution was possible at all. It currently rests on a comparison of the probability of an observed weather event in the real world with that of the ‘same’ event in a hypothetical world without global warming. One critic argued that, given the insufficient observational data and the coarse and mathematically far-from-perfect climate models used to generate attribution claims, they are unjustifiably speculative, basically unverifiable and better not made at all.

--snip--

The United Nations is planning to set up a fund with the aim of reducing loss and damage due to climate change, but the complexity of such issues is making negotations difficult.

--snip--

That could be a task for social scientists, who have good methods for analysing decision-making and social trans-actions. They need to be more involved in shaping the production and dissemination of climate knowledge.

(Excerpt) Read more at nature.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: agw; climatechange; extremeweather; extremeweatherevents; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
OK green goobers, even the know it alls at Nature's editorial board think your models aint up to snuff.
1 posted on 09/20/2012 8:01:36 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

In one short decade Nature went from the premiere science journal to a completely politicized propaganda rag.


2 posted on 09/20/2012 8:06:49 PM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: neverdem

Better models = mo money


3 posted on 09/20/2012 8:12:00 PM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: neverdem

Why don’t they just use models from Victoria’s Secret?


4 posted on 09/20/2012 8:14:42 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: SpaceBar

Here’s where they lost me.

“...in a hypothetical world without global warming.”

It’s not just a perdicshun anymore.


5 posted on 09/20/2012 8:24:20 PM PDT by logitech (Who's here so vile, that will not love his country? If any speak, for him I have offended)
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To: neverdem

Record summer Arctic melt... But do they mention the record levels of sea ice around Antarctica? Of course not, doesn’t fit with their agenda.


6 posted on 09/20/2012 8:41:44 PM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obama now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: ThunderSleeps

So they need a climate model that requires planet wobble and
the sun.

Cold and hot spots move all over the earth all the time.


7 posted on 09/20/2012 9:08:54 PM PDT by ully2
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To: ully2
Milankovich cycles:

http://geography.about.com/od/learnabouttheearth/a/milankovitch.htm

8 posted on 09/20/2012 9:27:30 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: SpaceBar

“In one short decade Nature went from the premiere science journal to a completely politicized propaganda rag.”

It needs to be renamed “Blut und Boden.” (Blood and Soil)


9 posted on 09/21/2012 5:20:27 AM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: neverdem
Nature isn't scientific. This is a editorial comment - which the record summer melt of Arctic sea-ice suggests it is doing at a worrying pace

They left out the record ice accumulation in the Antarctic.

10 posted on 09/21/2012 12:33:11 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: neverdem
Only one model is needed if it works. Averaging the outputs of 200 wrong models does not produce a right answer.

What we actually need is a working economic model to accurately predict the effects of government spending, borrowing, higher taxes, and new regulations. That would do far more good for mankind.

11 posted on 09/21/2012 1:06:17 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks neverdem.


12 posted on 09/21/2012 6:18:56 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: neverdem; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; America_Right; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Global Warming on Free Republic

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13 posted on 09/21/2012 8:44:32 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Obama should change his campaign slogan to "Yes, we am!" Sounds as stupid as his administration is.)
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To: neverdem

By now I am amazed that people have not discovered the inherent futility of using computers to accurately predict long term behavior of the mathematically CHAOTIC system known as Earth’s climate.


14 posted on 09/22/2012 7:47:22 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: 1010RD

The Antarctic remains an interesting point to actually research: why doesn’t it follow the same path as the Arctic, I would presume a great deal has to do with it being over land, and also the fact that the North and South Poles aren’t really even on the tilt of the Earth’s axis, but until someone actually tries it, I guess we won’t exactly know.


15 posted on 09/23/2012 6:34:04 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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To: Morpheus2009

You’re right and the fundamental issue is that the earth is a system that’s part of a system. It isn’t closed and you have to include the sun. Until we’re able to predict weather accurately how can we predict climate change? Now add in the effects of volcanism, meteors, earthquakes, moon phases and eons of time and you’ve got a very complex picture of weather. Weather itself doesn’t equate to climate.

The Internet helped us dodge a big bullet. Can you imagine having both Obamacare and carbon climate protocols? If we don’t get rid of the government school system I don’t see how we can turn it around. We’ve got generations of indoctrinees now being trained by the previous indoctrinees.


16 posted on 09/23/2012 8:44:49 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: All

stats, facts, modeling .. who needs to apply scientific standards when we have Al Gore’s powerpoint presentation and Hollywierd..
They know the answer, raise taxes, reduce defense spending, and regulate coal, oil and gas out of existence and enforce an international one-child policy.. then and only then will the globe stop warming.


17 posted on 09/23/2012 8:49:58 AM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: 1010RD

To add another point, since you mentioned the Sun, the brightness and Sunspot activity is projected to peak in Summer of next year, or 2013. Given that being the case, a dimming of the Sun next year could play a role, and perhaps trigger another “cold period” as a result, it will be interesting to watch and keep eyes open as to what does happen after next summer.


18 posted on 09/25/2012 10:59:31 AM PDT by Morpheus2009
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