Skip to comments.Extreme weather: Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to...
Posted on 09/20/2012 8:01:24 PM PDT by neverdem
Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
As climate change proceeds which the record summer melt of Arctic sea-ice suggests it is doing at a worrying pace nations, communities and individual citizens may begin to seek compensation for losses and damage arising from global warming. Climate scientists should be prepared for their skills one day to be probed in court. Whether there is a legal basis for such claims, such as that brought against the energy company ExxonMobil by the remote Alaskan community of Kivalina, which is facing coastal erosion and flooding as the sea ice retreats, is far from certain, however. So lawyers, insurers and climate negotiators are watching with interest the emerging ability, arising from improvements in...
At a workshop last week in Oxford, UK, convened by the Attribution of Climate-related Events group a loose coalition of scientists from both sides of the Atlantic some speakers questioned whether event attribution was possible at all. It currently rests on a comparison of the probability of an observed weather event in the real world with that of the same event in a hypothetical world without global warming. One critic argued that, given the insufficient observational data and the coarse and mathematically far-from-perfect climate models used to generate attribution claims, they are unjustifiably speculative, basically unverifiable and better not made at all.
The United Nations is planning to set up a fund with the aim of reducing loss and damage due to climate change, but the complexity of such issues is making negotations difficult.
That could be a task for social scientists, who have good methods for analysing decision-making and social trans-actions. They need to be more involved in shaping the production and dissemination of climate knowledge.
(Excerpt) Read more at nature.com ...
In one short decade Nature went from the premiere science journal to a completely politicized propaganda rag.
Better models = mo money
Why don’t they just use models from Victoria’s Secret?
Here’s where they lost me.
“...in a hypothetical world without global warming.”
It’s not just a perdicshun anymore.
Record summer Arctic melt... But do they mention the record levels of sea ice around Antarctica? Of course not, doesn’t fit with their agenda.
So they need a climate model that requires planet wobble and
Cold and hot spots move all over the earth all the time.
“In one short decade Nature went from the premiere science journal to a completely politicized propaganda rag.”
It needs to be renamed “Blut und Boden.” (Blood and Soil)
They left out the record ice accumulation in the Antarctic.
What we actually need is a working economic model to accurately predict the effects of government spending, borrowing, higher taxes, and new regulations. That would do far more good for mankind.
By now I am amazed that people have not discovered the inherent futility of using computers to accurately predict long term behavior of the mathematically CHAOTIC system known as Earth’s climate.
The Antarctic remains an interesting point to actually research: why doesn’t it follow the same path as the Arctic, I would presume a great deal has to do with it being over land, and also the fact that the North and South Poles aren’t really even on the tilt of the Earth’s axis, but until someone actually tries it, I guess we won’t exactly know.
You’re right and the fundamental issue is that the earth is a system that’s part of a system. It isn’t closed and you have to include the sun. Until we’re able to predict weather accurately how can we predict climate change? Now add in the effects of volcanism, meteors, earthquakes, moon phases and eons of time and you’ve got a very complex picture of weather. Weather itself doesn’t equate to climate.
The Internet helped us dodge a big bullet. Can you imagine having both Obamacare and carbon climate protocols? If we don’t get rid of the government school system I don’t see how we can turn it around. We’ve got generations of indoctrinees now being trained by the previous indoctrinees.
stats, facts, modeling .. who needs to apply scientific standards when we have Al Gore’s powerpoint presentation and Hollywierd..
They know the answer, raise taxes, reduce defense spending, and regulate coal, oil and gas out of existence and enforce an international one-child policy.. then and only then will the globe stop warming.
To add another point, since you mentioned the Sun, the brightness and Sunspot activity is projected to peak in Summer of next year, or 2013. Given that being the case, a dimming of the Sun next year could play a role, and perhaps trigger another “cold period” as a result, it will be interesting to watch and keep eyes open as to what does happen after next summer.