Skip to comments.What John McLaughlin (pollster) Sees in the Polls Right Now (Must Read!)
Posted on 09/21/2012 6:31:56 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
I reached out to Republican pollster John McLaughlin for yesterdays piece on how undecided voters are likely to break, and he made some separate comments about polls, their impact on motivation for each side, and how the campaigns want to use skewed poll numbers to depress the opposition.
How hes defining likely voters right now: For the most part were polling likely voters. Its a loose screen. We keep people who say theyre only somewhat likely to vote. But the vast majority say that they are definitely or very likely to vote. Theyre voting.
How campaigns try to sway polling results: In a close race, the operatives are trying to manipulate the turnout through their paid and earned media. The earned media includes lobbying and trying to skew the public polls. Historically the most egregious case was the 2000 Gore campaigns lobbying the networks exit pollsters for an early, and wrong, call in Florida. This suppressed the Florida Panhandle and Western state turnout. (Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, because the state stretches into two time zones.) In our post-election Florida poll, we found that thousands of Panhandle Floridians heard the call and although their polls were still open for an hour in a close national race decided not to vote. Panhandle voters went two-to-one for Bush. The CBS early wrong call nearly triggered a national crisis.
On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51-48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been President. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. Theres no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.
What Obama and his allies are doing now: The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are not enthusiastic to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. Well see a lot more of this. Then theres the debate between calling off a random digit dial of phone exchanges vs a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. Thats too expensive for some pollsters.
I don’t care what the so-called polls say, Romney is going to be the next President.
Bank on it.
I believe!!! Also praying!!!
Everytime I hear about attempts to supress / depress GOP turnout I have a picture of lines at Chick fil A in my mind.
I don’t think this is going to work this time. Anti-Obama voters will show up in mass to cast a vote against Obama and for Romney, just for the pleasure of doing so. I would crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama, just to show the bastard I can. I’ve waited years for the opportunity. 40% of likely voters despise Obama. Fraudulent polling data will not keep them home, however, it may lull lazy, disengaged Obama voters into a false confidence that they don’t need to show up..
We see it in our lives everyday. In 2008 you could not find an ear to listen to who we knew Obama is.(A full blown Marxist). Today you cannot find anyone to say anything nice about him and open discussion everywhere about how people can’t wait to see him go.
I disagree. We are in the second election of a Republican wave that started before 2010.
I was watching John Hagee yesterday on the Glenn Beck Show and they were speaking about the 40 days/40 nights prayer challenge beginning Sept 28. Beck is joining. We MUST PRAY. We need God’s help. There are dark forces trying to destroy our beloved republic.
In a landslide never before seen in this Country! the cover of Newsweek Mag in December will be: WE ARE ALL RACIST NOW!
Americans are already voting with their pocket books, thus the bad economy no matter what this socialist in the WH does to prop it up! Private business is sitting this socialist out until he is out of office for good!
No Sir, this will be a landslide loss for Obumbum no matter what the pollsters attempt to portray this election as close. It is NOT even close no matter how they attempt to slice it!
And to think that we have a fair number of fellow freepers who have worn themselves out trying everything they can think of to convince everyone else that Romney = Obama. What a bunch of idiots.
Chick fil A day was a warmup for Nov 6.
I don’t know, I was shocked when Obama was elected. Although McCain was a loser. I was quite dumbfounded that people would elect someone who could not wear a flag, put his hand over his heart and was basically a Muslim.
Then, I thought they will never pass this idiotic health care bill and I was deeply disappointed again.
This time I am not going to send my self into depression and
try to avoid getting pulled into the emotions of this elections, It is a health issue
Yes, Max Lucado is doing the 40 Days of prayer starting Sept 28th. I have jump started and praying now and have been. Please join in and where two or more are gathered... So shall He.
At the time of the election there was a bit of talk about a Texas polling and PR agency that was hired by the DNC and Gore to call Florida voters and 'inform' them that their votes may not have been counted. When the election was taken to court that news quickly disappeared and was not brought up again. But, it was clear at the time that dem strategy was to influence the election both in Florida and on the west coast by directly interfering with voters.
Scott Walker, Governor- Wisconsin!
I hear ya. I conservative writers would quit writing articles based on faulty push polls as well. Are they trying to help the opposition?
McCain was an AWFUL candidate.
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