Skip to comments.What John McLaughlin (pollster) Sees in the Polls Right Now (Must Read!)
Posted on 09/21/2012 6:31:56 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
I reached out to Republican pollster John McLaughlin for yesterdays piece on how undecided voters are likely to break, and he made some separate comments about polls, their impact on motivation for each side, and how the campaigns want to use skewed poll numbers to depress the opposition.
How hes defining likely voters right now: For the most part were polling likely voters. Its a loose screen. We keep people who say theyre only somewhat likely to vote. But the vast majority say that they are definitely or very likely to vote. Theyre voting.
How campaigns try to sway polling results: In a close race, the operatives are trying to manipulate the turnout through their paid and earned media. The earned media includes lobbying and trying to skew the public polls. Historically the most egregious case was the 2000 Gore campaigns lobbying the networks exit pollsters for an early, and wrong, call in Florida. This suppressed the Florida Panhandle and Western state turnout. (Polls close at different times in different parts of the state, because the state stretches into two time zones.) In our post-election Florida poll, we found that thousands of Panhandle Floridians heard the call and although their polls were still open for an hour in a close national race decided not to vote. Panhandle voters went two-to-one for Bush. The CBS early wrong call nearly triggered a national crisis.
On what a realistic partisan breakdown would look like: The 2004 national exit polls showed an even partisan turnout and Bush won 51-48. Had it been the +4 Democratic edge of 2000, John Kerry would have been President. 2008 was a Democratic wave that gave them a +7 partisan advantage. 2010 was a Republican edge. Theres no wave right now. There are about a dozen swing states where in total millions of voters who voted in 2008 for Obama are gone or have not voted since. There are also hundreds of thousands of voters in each of several swing states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and others who voted from rural, exurban or suburban areas in 2004 for Bush who did not vote in 2008, because they were not excited by McCain or thought he would lose. They are currently planning to vote mainly as a vote against President Obama.
What Obama and his allies are doing now: The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are not enthusiastic to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. Well see a lot more of this. Then theres the debate between calling off a random digit dial of phone exchanges vs a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. Thats too expensive for some pollsters.
I don’t care what the so-called polls say, Romney is going to be the next President.
Bank on it.
I believe!!! Also praying!!!
Everytime I hear about attempts to supress / depress GOP turnout I have a picture of lines at Chick fil A in my mind.
I don’t think this is going to work this time. Anti-Obama voters will show up in mass to cast a vote against Obama and for Romney, just for the pleasure of doing so. I would crawl over broken glass to vote against Obama, just to show the bastard I can. I’ve waited years for the opportunity. 40% of likely voters despise Obama. Fraudulent polling data will not keep them home, however, it may lull lazy, disengaged Obama voters into a false confidence that they don’t need to show up..
We see it in our lives everyday. In 2008 you could not find an ear to listen to who we knew Obama is.(A full blown Marxist). Today you cannot find anyone to say anything nice about him and open discussion everywhere about how people can’t wait to see him go.
I disagree. We are in the second election of a Republican wave that started before 2010.
I was watching John Hagee yesterday on the Glenn Beck Show and they were speaking about the 40 days/40 nights prayer challenge beginning Sept 28. Beck is joining. We MUST PRAY. We need God’s help. There are dark forces trying to destroy our beloved republic.
In a landslide never before seen in this Country! the cover of Newsweek Mag in December will be: WE ARE ALL RACIST NOW!
Americans are already voting with their pocket books, thus the bad economy no matter what this socialist in the WH does to prop it up! Private business is sitting this socialist out until he is out of office for good!
No Sir, this will be a landslide loss for Obumbum no matter what the pollsters attempt to portray this election as close. It is NOT even close no matter how they attempt to slice it!
And to think that we have a fair number of fellow freepers who have worn themselves out trying everything they can think of to convince everyone else that Romney = Obama. What a bunch of idiots.
Chick fil A day was a warmup for Nov 6.
I don’t know, I was shocked when Obama was elected. Although McCain was a loser. I was quite dumbfounded that people would elect someone who could not wear a flag, put his hand over his heart and was basically a Muslim.
Then, I thought they will never pass this idiotic health care bill and I was deeply disappointed again.
This time I am not going to send my self into depression and
try to avoid getting pulled into the emotions of this elections, It is a health issue
Yes, Max Lucado is doing the 40 Days of prayer starting Sept 28th. I have jump started and praying now and have been. Please join in and where two or more are gathered... So shall He.
At the time of the election there was a bit of talk about a Texas polling and PR agency that was hired by the DNC and Gore to call Florida voters and 'inform' them that their votes may not have been counted. When the election was taken to court that news quickly disappeared and was not brought up again. But, it was clear at the time that dem strategy was to influence the election both in Florida and on the west coast by directly interfering with voters.
Scott Walker, Governor- Wisconsin!
I hear ya. I conservative writers would quit writing articles based on faulty push polls as well. Are they trying to help the opposition?
McCain was an AWFUL candidate.
It confirms what I had heard after the 2008 debacle...new black voters for the “halfrican” but only 10% total of population made some difference but in the end, it was McLame as a horrible candidate and not supporting Sarah that kept true Pubbie base voters home, they too thinking Obummer may not be THAT bad.
They were wrong, they know it and they will turn out for Mitt to bury Obozo.
Well, Romney is worse than McCain. And Paul does not generate the same enthusiasm Palin did.
The only reason they are not losing by 10 is the economy. Maybe it will be enough to keep them within 2-3%, in which case the GOP can at least hold on to its House majority.
If Romney loses by 4-6%, the majority is gone as well.
And no, he is not going to win in November, McLaughlin’s bs notwithstanding.
2008 was a warning shot over the bow of the Republican party. “Stop acting like Democrats”. Obama gave rise to the largest political activism from conservatives that I’ve ever seen. The Republican party better wake up and get their noses out of the beltway media butt. The internet is our media not the MSM. I haven’t watched 5 minutes of any news show in years and always mute my radio at the top of the hour. There is a sleeping giant waking up and it’s Patriotic Americans who are sick of both political parties and want their country back NOW!
And Obozo can’t get to 50% approval even with Lame Stream lying.
Spot on. Unlike libs, conservatives are not out screaming, calling people names etc. Conservatives simply do what needs to be done. In this case, it means showing up in DROVES November 6th.
Stay focused, my FRiends and stay on message. We're less than 50 days from victory.
OBummo is going to lose big. Just get out there on Nov 6th and vote. No excuses.
We have a thread for this that has been going since early August:
And I think of 2010. Those voters haven’t gone anywhere. If anything, we picked up a whole lot of new ones.
C'mon, tell us what you really think. :)
Disaffected Ron Paul guy? Fan of ex-Democrat Virgil Goode? Secret supporter of The Empty Chair?
You seem to be the proverbial Cult of One, at least so far on this thread.
I look at the numbers, instead of wishing them away. And concluding from that I like Obama is a big leap - in fact I detest him. But he is going to get his 2nd term, barring some miracle in the remaining six weeks.
In 2008 most Freepers were trying to put the spin on the polls, and in the end the RCP poll average was right on the money.
If it’s 50/5 at this stage, considering all the dirt the Obama campaign has heaped in Romney’s direction and the fact that the MSM is almost 100% behind Obama. it would seem that
Romney should win the election hands down. With the abysmal
record of Obama, 40+ million on food stamps, unemployment at
an “admitted” +8%, probably over 10+, the countries debt in the proverbial toilet, it is hard to understand that the country would want more of the same. Unfortunately there are far too many Americans not paying attention and listening only to the MSM that an Obama victory is certainly possible.
However, I am optimistic that enough is known about Obama and his socialistic direction “redistribution of wealth” that enough Americans will see through him and his ideoligy to vote him out of office. That is my biased opinion.
Yep. Our ticket was upside down. In fact, McCain shouldn't have even been in the number two slot.
Then, I thought they will never pass this idiotic health care bill and I was deeply disappointed again.
True, but again, polls at the time showed the public disapproved... and then the November 2010 proved historic, which seems to have faded from most people's memory. Remember, previously, Democrats controlled everything and by wide margins with a super-majority in the Senate.
This time I am not going to send my self into depression and try to avoid getting pulled into the emotions of this elections, It is a health issue
I completely understand.
I read a story in World Net Daily recently about financiers buying a huge house in Hawaii for Dear Leader since his internal polling shows that he cannot win in November. Move in time is January 2013. That could just be propaganda and is no excuse for not getting out to vote in November.
The thing to take away here: IGNORE the polls and GET OUT AND VOTE!! The future of our great Republic depends on it!
"I'm voting for Obama because I know he's not finished yet."
“But the vast majority say that they are definitely or very likely to vote. Theyre voting.”
Hmmmm. That’s not so good — I thought we were counting on low enthusiasm on their side?
Funny thing to say in a thread that shows the numbers are lying to you. When was the last time you had a clue?
Traditional Democrat voting groups had lied to pollsters in spades out of fear of rebuke from Kool-Aid drinkers who held some power over them (union, dependence, etc.) but which Wirthlin's group was able to filter out with leading questions.
Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen this time around because the country is so much dumber than it was in 1980 and so demographically changed. At best, Romney barely breaks 300 electoral votes.
This thread does not show anything like that - It just shows the spin from the guy whose job is to spin numbers, not to look at them.
The polls averages were correct in 2008, correct in all the Senate races in 2010 (if anything, they were a little too optimistic for the GOP), and they are likely correct now.
I disagree. Gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
Well, Romney is worse than McCain.
My dad once told me that opinions are like @$$ holes. Everybody has one and most of them stink.
My opinion is vastly different than yours. I can’t imagine a worse candidate than McCain.
Romney is organized. Romney is intelligent. Romney wants it. He has worked for the last 6 years for this. He has spent a fortune to obtain the nomination and will not waste his investment.
Obama is a Communist, Romney knows this even if he doesn’t say the words he says enough that if you read between the lines you realize he know it.
I’m liking Romney more the more I hear him. He picked a good man for vice president and to me that says a lot about the man who picked him.
I’m thinking we have a much better than even chance to win.
Yep, and they were correct in 1980, 1984, 1994 etc., right? The undecideds will break hard for Romney towards the close of the campaign.
>>”Romney is worse than McCain”
> I disagree. Gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.
The test will come in November. McCain lost by 7.5% in the middle of the greatest financial meltdown in 70 years. Romney is running as a challenger in much more favorable conditions for him. If he can keep it within, say 3%, I will take my words back.
And to give a summary of this thread - Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt.
Of course, today isn’t Election Day. What do you gather from the polls as they are right now and what do you think they will be reporting near Election Day?
Polls are historically since Dewey rather accurate
However, the sampling in this round does seem to always except with Rassmussen be using 2008 as representative for their samplings per party.
hence it is a possibility that if the samplings are weighted too high for Democrats this time around in most polls I've seen that they could actually be wrong
aside from Rassmussen and some of the less known outfits I've seen none that are not oversampling Democrats by at least 4-6 points and also with a huge ambiguous self identified Independent bloc
if this were true it would indicate polling propaganda on the scale of the 2004 exit polls purposeful subterfuge
this time around obviously all gloves are off for the media and their polling arms no question
but...given how abysmal Obama is, our numbers should be creaming him...
trending demographics are killing us number one
second, he and his team are lackluster and playing it too safe with all that cash unless they plan something huge towards the end
i think most have already made up their minds
The polls will only move 2-3% at most between now and the election day.
In 2004, Kerry was down by 5% at this point in the campaign, he made it closer and won by 2.5%.
In 2008, Obama went up by 6% in the RCP average in late September (after the financial meltdown), and won by 7.5%.
Right now, looking at the state polls (and ignoring robopolls), Romney is down by about 5%. I hope he can replicate Kerry and come back a little, but would not bet on it. After all, the media will always declare Obama the debate winner - and Romney cannot count on any debate bounce, which helped Kerry in 2004.
On practical level, there are Senate seats in AZ, NV, MT, IN which can and must be help (or flipped, in MT case), but will be very close. I will donate to some of those, and encourage everybody to do so.
>>I had got so sick of the liberal MSM trying to coronate Obama and dispirit Republicans with their cooked polls, that I’ve given up listening to the news....So far, I’ve been doing it for one week, at it’s amazing how much better I feel...even my blood pressure is back in the normal range.<<
The take-away line in the article was this one: “The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. Well see a lot more of this.”
And the reason we’ll see a lot more is that it works, as evidenced by your blood pressure comment, as well as a personal observation of my own bp.
But we’re both going to vote regardless. The real impact is on those less-politically-involved people who would vote for Romney, but don’t want to wake up Weds. morning and find out they lost. It’s not about Romney losing; it’s about them losing.
So, the current push by the MSM is to build momentum to achieve a 2008 rerun, where Obama is viewed as unbeatable. If they succeed, Romney voters will stay home, partly because they see no point, and partly because they don’t want to wake up having voted for the guy who lost.
This strategy, however, only works if that momentum actually builds, but in the current environment, that’s not likely to happen. And if we go into election day with the numbers close, well, people love a horse race, and they’ll go to the polls. This could be especially true of the previous Obama voters who have changed their minds and intend to vote for Romney, if they vote at all. If it’s not viewed as close, they’re likely to stay home rather than wake up a loser; if it’s a horserace, they might show up and try to pick another winner.
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