Skip to comments.Gallup: R 47%, 0 47% (RV)
Posted on 09/21/2012 10:23:18 AM PDT by Arthurio
Gallup: R 47%, 0 47% (RV)
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
No disrespect to you, but why bother with a poll of “registered” voters?....this close to the election..only polls of “likely” voters are worth anything..
I was sure Romney would lose a point today, as a reaction to the “47%” video. Consider me pleasantly suprised.
Anyone know when Gallup switches over to likely? And a 7 day rolling average? Really? Things turn in a dime. 3 days (like Ras) is way more topical and accurate.
Remember in 2010 the exit polls were waay off...it was determined that voters enjoyed lying to the exit pollsters....I think that the same may be true now..
Romney will win by 5% points nationwide. Obama is a disaster and is gaining NO new voters. He is bleeding voters.
How any journalist or commentator can still say with a straight face that Obama is “running away” with the election is beyond me. Liberalism is a mental disorder.
When the inconsequential 47% tape garners 80% of the air time of CNN and the others, I'm surprised Romney's doing as well as he is.
Whew. This is good news.
The damage from the media manufactured gaffe “scandals” is that it diverts the sheeples’ attention from the real issue in this election: 0bama’s lousy performance.
They think 0 is ahead, and are trying to help him run out the clock.
Wish I could ignore them as well. Polls are like sports scores. I watch and dissect each one that is remotely accurate.
Still boggles the mind how badly the media tries to influence the news stories, rather than just report them. Re: Gallup's poll today - 60% don't trust the media... This really won't help.
For someone the MSM and the over-confident Demonrats have already written off, Romney is hanging in there.
I’d like the left wingers to explain:
60% of the voters don’t trust the mainstream media. Yet obama is even with Romney.
This one explains itself. Only 43% of the people are paying close attention to Libya. Therefore, 49% think obama is doing a good job on foreign policy.
Self-fulfilling prophecy...By repeating it, while whitewashing any real news that might nurture an alternate outcome...
I would note that over the past nine Presidential elections, incumbents have garnered almost exactly the same percentage of the popular vote as they have in the mid-September Gallup poll. Should that trend continue, Obama would earn a bit less than 48%.
I think a poll like this is useful. If the race is tied with RV, then it probably means that Romney is ahead by a sizable margin.
Just give Romney a couple more points and take a couple away from Obama and you’ve converted the results from ‘registered’ to ‘likely’. Had it started out at ‘adult’ rather than ‘registered’, you’d have to repeat that to get all the way over to ‘likely’.
It’s getting close to election time, so the polls are gradually shifting over to the real honest, sampling techniques to preserve their credibility so that they will be hired in the next election cycle.
It’s standard practice - use polling to advance their candidate and demoralize opponents early on, then gradually shift over to actual polling in the last week or too to reflect the actual vote that will occur.
Examples are plentiful - the failure to predict the 1980 Reagan win, the 1994 Republican Congress takeover, and the 2010 Republican Tea Party resurgence. Every poll was reflecting a “too-close-to-call” outlook, and yet the elections became landslides.
Their defense is always “the undecideds broke at the last moment”. Nonsense! Does anyone really think that there were all these undecided voters up to the last hours before the election? Do you know anyone who went into the last week of the election saying “I don’t know who I’m voting for”?
From now to election day, the big polls like Gallup will all be saying it’s neck and neck. I don’t know who will win, but I will guarantee you that it will not be a close election. More like 52-48.
I liken it to the lapdog media being his troops, dutifully carrying out their orders even in the face of certain defeat. Like Hitler’s generals telling him what he wanted to hear as the door was closing on his beloved Reich.
So, when you adjust for what “Likely voters” would be, the race is more realistically 49%-47% or 49%-46% for Romney.
Even a network poll report Republican voter are far more galvenized than Democrats.
Translation: Republicans are far more to be “likely voters”.
Even though this is 7 days wouldn’t Romeny’s 47% video start to show by now
“Even though this is 7 days wouldnt Romenys 47% video start to show by now?”
Yes. At least 2/7 of the 7 day Gallup roll would incorporate the “47%” video’s fallout. With Gallup you never know the full effect of any particular event for at least a week after the event occurs. The fact that the 3-day Rasmussen poll backed up in favor of Romney today implies strongly the video’s effect is over.
But, brace yourself for the next leftist distraction. Their strategy has become clear.
I came on to post the same thing. If Gallup has Romney tied with RV's the Obama camp must be crapping.