2012 through august: 4,627,000 dems 4,174,000 repubs 2,454,000 indies
Dems had 700,000 edge in 2008 and now only 450,000 edge. Of course september numbers to add until regisration close 10/9.
I am one of those 2,454,000 indies. I’ll be voting against Obama.
Actually it's only an edge of 449,999. I live in Florida and am still registered as a Dem. Just too lazy to change it. It has been fun voting for obscure candidates in the Democratic primaries though :-)
The trend is registrations (in states where voters register by party) tend to lag AND CONFIRM the trend in “affiliation.” Pollsters usually use the subjective concept of affiliation.
2004 Exit Poll 37 Dems 41 Reps
2006 Exit Poll 36 “ 39 “
2008 Exit Poll 37 “ 34 “
2010 Exit Poll 36 “ 36 “
According to the Exit Polls in Florida, affiliation shifted from the Pubbies to the Demos from ‘04, and shifted to even in ‘10.
The media polls are using 2008 turn-out model, when there is reason to think the Republicans will have an advantage in affiliation this year.
we also need to know how many of the registered dem’s are dead,dogs,cats,trees,park benches and professional football players.
It will be the Indies that will decide it.
I wonder how many of those 4,627,000 dems also vote in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, too???