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Romney Double Digit Lead?
Independent Journal Review ^ | 9/21/2012 | Kyle Becker

Posted on 09/22/2012 6:00:35 AM PDT by markomalley

The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.

But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.

Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”

Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents. Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.

Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.

If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.


TOPICS: Editorial; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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I would far prefer to see candidates running in "catch up" mode...so I don't think the polls are, in reality, doing us anything but a favor. But it's nice to get a shot in the arm like this from time to time.
1 posted on 09/22/2012 6:00:37 AM PDT by markomalley
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To: markomalley
All patriots should be working to defeat 0bama on November 6th as if Romney were 10 points behind, and (accounting for traditional 'Rat voter fraud) as if 0bama were 20 points ahead.

0BAMA MUST GO!!!
2 posted on 09/22/2012 6:04:05 AM PDT by mkjessup (Jimmy Carter is the Skidmark in America's panties, 0bama is the yellow stain in front!)
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To: markomalley

I hoping the biased polling also suppresses the ‘rat cheating and voter fraud because they think it’s unnecessary.


3 posted on 09/22/2012 6:05:30 AM PDT by Dr. Pritchett
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To: Dr. Pritchett
I hoping the biased polling also suppresses the ‘rat cheating and voter fraud because they think it’s unnecessary.

If the cheating were to be done by the rank-and-file average 'Rat then this would probably hold true. But I suspect that the fraud will be perpetrated by the Dem power structure who get to see valid internal polling and as a result know how much cheating is required. I just hope that a lead/victory of 10 points or greater puts the result beyond the margin of fraud.

4 posted on 09/22/2012 6:21:36 AM PDT by Tonytitan
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks markomalley.
The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we'll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.
Not Rush this time!


5 posted on 09/22/2012 6:26:04 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Dr. Pritchett

But it might keep some undecided OR UNINFORMED voters from voting, thinking obozo WILL be the winner so why vote for Repubs or why vote at all.....

We need to convince our voters to disregard the biased ‘polls’ and vote obozo out!
Massive voter turnout for our side is what it takes to vote out the liar hypocrite traitor obozo!

VOTE!


6 posted on 09/22/2012 6:27:11 AM PDT by chrisnj
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To: markomalley

The democrats have been fixing elections for many years now without much opposition and this election will probably be the most contentious in American history with lying liberal justices like Roberts and four others decidng who they want to be President. When the SCOTUS became Congress and Congress became all thieves and fools, America died and we are now just another Western socialist nation with dictators deciding who lives and who dies.
This is what happens to all pagan nations who deny God’s Christ and belive in utopian governments.


7 posted on 09/22/2012 6:30:40 AM PDT by kindred (Jesus Christ is the Lord God and Messiah of Israel, a present help in time of trouble.)
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To: SunkenCiv

If for no other reason, I desperately want Romney to win just to debunk that punk Nate Silver.


8 posted on 09/22/2012 6:33:33 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: markomalley

If the internal polling is showing this, it could explain Obama’s disinterest in most things Washington, including the recent ME uprising. He may be just biding his time to push the domestic and foreign messes onto the new guy in January.

Don’t candidates get to ‘keep’ all the money they raise?

McCain ‘borrowed’ $20 million from his presidential funds of 2008 to run his Senate campaign in 2010. $20 million? Maybe if he had used that, as intended, for his 2008, he might have won. But, McCain is a whole other subject.


9 posted on 09/22/2012 6:36:16 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: markomalley

It’s going to be a Romney blow out. There is a big drop off in voter enthusiasm by black and young people. And I believe that latinos finally see Obama as the snake oil salesman that he is.


10 posted on 09/22/2012 6:42:10 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: markomalley

I believe that the Democrats know that this is going to be a wipeout against Obama, and in manipulating the polls with their willing and eager media accomplices, are setting the stage for a charge of voter fraud and cheating against the R&R campaign to derail or de-legitimize a Romney administratoin from the get-go.


11 posted on 09/22/2012 6:45:54 AM PDT by ExpatCanuck
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To: markomalley

“The mainstream media are rigging the polls”

They have to rig the polls because they are in cahoots with those who have rigged the voting machines. This will not be an election-—it will be a selection by the soros and his ilk who will not rest until they see hussein drive the final stake into the US and our Constitution.


12 posted on 09/22/2012 6:54:59 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: ExpatCanuck
I believe that the Democrats know that this is going to be a wipe-out against Obama, and in manipulating the polls with their willing and eager media accomplices, are setting the stage for a charge of voter fraud and cheating against the R&R campaign to derail or de-legitimize a Romney administration from the get-go.

Winner Winner Chicken Diner. Just like that Boy-Toy John Kerry waited to the next day to Congradulate GWB, and Dan Blather went on endlessly about Ohio to 3 in the morning waiting for the last 2 or 3 percent that could pull it out for Kerry when it was a Mathematical Impossibly...

It was all about de-legitimization of Bush's 2nd Term. And like a Dumb Ass he went along with it and was magnanimous and didn't declare victory until the next afternoon.

He should have declared victory with Bravado, I hope the Mitser does, especially if it is a 10 point blow out. He should strut around the stage like Mussolini and rub their little socialist noses in it...

The problem is will their be trouble as people their votes were stolen or the election was....

13 posted on 09/22/2012 7:01:55 AM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: markomalley

My reply from some other threads about rigged polls;

“I got an interesting call yesterday! Rigged! A recording, asking who I was going to vote for. From DC. It required simple “Yes/No” answers.
“First question, answer yes or no; Do you intend to vote for Romney?”
I attempted to answer “Yes,” but the space left for the answer was suddenly filled with a series of beeps, like someone dialing the phone. When the beeps stopped, one word, “Obama?” Betcha my “Yes” during the beeps was recorded for Obama. At the very least, there was no way you could vote for Romney!”


14 posted on 09/22/2012 7:04:43 AM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: markomalley

Obama is buying a home in Hawaii. It will be ready in Jan. 2013. Maybe he already understands the polls are controlled by Democrat operatives and the MSM is the Democrat Party at work each day to fool everyone.


15 posted on 09/22/2012 7:08:25 AM PDT by FreedBird
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To: Dr. Pritchett
Unfortunately, Rasmussen is also biased. Only in an alternate universe, conservative fantasy land is there a 4% party ID gap in favor of Republicans. This has never happened in the 20th century in Presidential Election years, and I think is completely bogus. At best, we had parity in party ID during Presidential elections, as in 2004.

So beware of the echo chamber effect where Rasmussen touts an equally unbelievable statistical anomaly just to show Romney ahead, and the crowd here in denial over the rest of the polls, believes in Rasmussen.

16 posted on 09/22/2012 7:12:16 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: taildragger

IIRC, it was 2004 when the MSM called Georgia for the Dem, then for the Pubbie. The MSM flipflopped several times on that state's results.

If the 2012 votes are that close, look for the MSM to be calling states 'for Obama' well in advance of the poll closings is other time zones -- even if they have to correct their calls later in the night.


17 posted on 09/22/2012 7:13:12 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: markomalley

The REAL poll results only come in (for most polls) the weekend before the election because even those purposely tilting towards Obama have their reputations to think of.


18 posted on 09/22/2012 7:23:07 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Beware the Rip in the Space/Time Continuum)
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To: Hotlanta Mike

The MSM has shoved Obama down the throats of viewers and readers too much. It seems most people are tired of hearing and seeing this arrogant person spout off as if he knows what he is doing. He reminds us of an out of control radical professor who is not in touch with reality. Obama thinks he knows what is right for the world, when the majority of time he is absolutely wrong.


19 posted on 09/22/2012 7:28:05 AM PDT by FreedBird
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To: mkjessup
Oh come on, you know they're both the same, so let's just give up and allow him four more years to finish us off...../FR50
20 posted on 09/22/2012 7:31:35 AM PDT by Lakeshark (I don't care for Mitt; the alternative is unthinkable)
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To: markomalley

A fifty something advantage to Romney would not surprise me. Only the most insanely lickspittle party loyalists or Fauxsheviks could support Obama at this point.


21 posted on 09/22/2012 7:36:37 AM PDT by Psalm 144 (Voodoo Republicans. Don't read their lips. Watch their hands.)
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To: FreedBird
Obama is buying a home in Hawaii. It will be ready in Jan. 2013. Maybe he already understands the polls are controlled by Democrat operatives and the MSM is the Democrat Party at work each day to fool everyone.

Either that, or after he wins he'll sign an Executive Order moving the Presidential Palace to Hawaii. Boo Yah!


22 posted on 09/22/2012 7:38:20 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: COBOL2Java

Hes moving away from the mainland to Hawaii to escape the coming chaos that he is purposely creating here.


23 posted on 09/22/2012 7:56:17 AM PDT by txgirl4Bush (2012 can't come soon enough!)
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To: kindred

Your post was to long to quote, so I’ll just say that I completely agree with you. It’s nice to know that others think the same thing I’m thinking.. thanks!


24 posted on 09/22/2012 7:57:54 AM PDT by Kratos
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To: markomalley

There is no way you get to a 52.5% Democrat sample unless you are intentionally skewing the polls. This is more than mere pro-Democrat bias. Obama sued Gallup for showing him losing the race, and the other pollsters are doing whatever they can to avoid a similar fate. Obama is a tyrant who has no regard for freedom of speech or of the press, and the pollsters know it.


25 posted on 09/22/2012 8:15:35 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: LS

I have to wonder if Nate Silver “cell phone” effect is the Leftist equivalent of Conservative 2008 wishful thinking about the “Bradly Effect”. The Leftist seem desperate to find some reason, like Conservatives did in 2008, why their candidate is not doing better in polling then they think he should.

I doubt phone usage has changes so much in 4 years that this massive under sample due to cellphone use that Silver claims is really there. I suspect the number of cell phones in use were pretty similar in 2008 to today. I doubt the numbers have changed that much.

Silver is basing his assumption on an unprovable just like Conservatives did in 2008. He fails to realize that polling is not like Baseball stats. In Baseball you either hit the ball or you don’t. In polling there is a large measure of uncertainty that requires pollsters to “guess” at their sample mix.

Silver wants to apply his expertise in baseball statistics analysis to election polling analysis, it is an apples to oranges comparison.


26 posted on 09/22/2012 8:25:31 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: nwrep; Dr. Pritchett
Only in an alternate universe, conservative fantasy land is there a 4% party ID gap in favor of Republicans

So Rass who actually polls for this and came up with that number, which happens to match up fairly well with current party voter registration figures, is "living in fantasy land" while you who base your statement on nothing stronger then your own opinion are dealing in reality?

Please explain to us then why the Media pollsters, who base their sample on an assumption of turning out more Democrat voters in 2012 then they did in 2008 are not also living in fantasy land?

Let us assume, like you do, that Democrats have a 3-4% party registration advantage.

Now reweigh the pro Obama polls down to that sample mix.

Well look at that, re-weighing the polls to the +4 Dem sample you want to use gives Romney either a slight lead or a tie.

The same thing Rass is showing in his polling.

27 posted on 09/22/2012 8:31:38 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

I read somewhere that Rasmussen’s party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 — and not the part identification he had in the August survey.


28 posted on 09/22/2012 8:40:30 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: chrisnj

yep! could work both ways, just gotta get out there.


29 posted on 09/22/2012 8:44:55 AM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: FreedBird

I can’t believe, even if Obama’s internals show him as losing badly, that he would just throw in the towel with 7 weeks left. That’s just not the style of Democrats. They will give it everything they got. His disinterest in what’s going on in the Middle East may, in fact, show he believes he’s winning big or will win big by cheating and chicanery.


30 posted on 09/22/2012 8:48:16 AM PDT by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: markomalley

“The mainstream media are rigging the polls”

Studies of polls in the past have shown how they are conducted.

1. A list of registered voters is drawn from public records.

2. Phone calls are made from 10:am to about 3 p.m. Who is in their home at this time?

3. Widows on Social Security;the unemployed;people on government assistance, mostly.

4.Minorities are disproportionately represented because they have higher unemployed or governement assisted- rates.

This is a perfect population to skew the results in favor of Democrat thinking irregardless of the party afilliation.

And how many cautious (if not frightened )people do not want to be thought of as racists. Just answering the phone poll shows a compliant personality to begin with.

Remember the Reagan-Carter race? The polls showed Reagan losing right up to the last few days of the election. Then Reagan won by a landslide. Yes...Romney is no Reagan but the case can be made that Obama is perceived as worse than Carter.


31 posted on 09/22/2012 8:48:51 AM PDT by firefox ((Vote Democrat...Its Easier Than Thinking!))
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To: markomalley

I think there could be something to this. I saw a Yahoo headline today that said “Romney Campaign Trails in Crucial Ground Game.”

I just couldn’t help laughing when I saw that! I think the MSM knows that we aren’t buying their bogus polls, so now they are trying out this “Romney trailing badly in ground game” narrative to try and depress us.


32 posted on 09/22/2012 9:04:15 AM PDT by lquist1
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To: markomalley
When I cast my vote on Nov 6 it is about one thing only - the Lame Stream Media is totally corrupt and must go the way of the dodo bird OR amend the 1st Amendment in some fashion to allow them to be sued for LYING and OMISSIONS beneficial to one party.
33 posted on 09/22/2012 9:22:54 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: markomalley

Both campaigns have internals, if you see Obama start campaigning in PA, WI, MI than you know they got serious problems in their own internals...


34 posted on 09/22/2012 9:26:18 AM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The political mirage of something for nothing; has ruined many a nation.)
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To: COBOL2Java

Like that picture. So it’s true, he really is the first gay President.


35 posted on 09/22/2012 9:32:55 AM PDT by GrandJediMasterYoda (Someday our schools we will teach the difference between "lose" and "loose")
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To: txgirl4Bush

Hawaii will probably protect him from warrants and summons also. I think it’s the safest place for him to go (next to Indonesia or Kenya) to avoid arrest or prosecution.


36 posted on 09/22/2012 9:48:35 AM PDT by CPO retired
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To: WashingtonSource

[ I read somewhere that Rasmussen’s party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 — and not the part identification he had in the August survey. ]

Yes, Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 sample.


37 posted on 09/22/2012 9:58:04 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Hotlanta Mike

I still can’t get Manchelle’s forlorn, sad look out of my mind as Bath-House Barry gave his final speech at the DNC convention...she looked totally depressed, didn’t she? (I think she knows they’re gonna lose BIGTIME.)


38 posted on 09/22/2012 10:12:00 AM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
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To: markomalley

Romney needs a bump that peaks on election day.


39 posted on 09/22/2012 10:15:40 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: txgirl4Bush
He's moving away from the mainland to Hawaii to escape the coming chaos that he is purposely creating here.

Then Reid will make sure the Capitol is completely cordoned off to keep out all the smelly commoners.

40 posted on 09/22/2012 10:17:23 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: Mortrey

Glad to say I did not watch a minute of the DNC convention nor any lowlight videos...


41 posted on 09/22/2012 10:18:12 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: markomalley

I appreciate the post. I do see a downside to the rigged polls though. It can depress the vote, if folks think it’s a lost cause.

Even on FoxNews I see folks talk about how much Romney was hurt this week. The polls if anything show him breaking even. If it was a bad week for him, imagine how bad a week Obama had, still dead even, even in these rigged polls.

When Romney stomps his ass by 15 to 20 points, we should turn around and march on the DNCp outlets. We’ve had enough and they damn well better get the message.


42 posted on 09/22/2012 10:24:51 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Imagine how bad these global protests would be, if Obama hadn't won us so many new friends.)
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To: nwrep
Unfortunately, Rasmussen is also biased. Only in an alternate universe, conservative fantasy land is there a 4% party ID gap in favor of Republicans.

Did you somehow miss the mid-term elections of 2010 when the Democrats suffered massive defeats because the Republican turnout was larger than the Democrat turnout?

The Republicans picked up six Senate seats, 68 House seats and nearly 700 seats in the state legislatures. It was a massive GOP rout at the national, state and city/town levels of government and the mainstream media either didn't see it coming or they didn't want to admit it was coming.

If anything, we are going to see even a larger blowout on November 6.

43 posted on 09/22/2012 10:28:48 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: DoughtyOne
Even on FoxNews...

Fox News is just another liberal channel, as far as I can see. The reason why we perceive them as being conservative is because the alternatives are so far out if left field that even a moderately liberal channel like Fox News is perceived to be right-of-center.

Something to think about when watching them.

44 posted on 09/22/2012 10:31:07 AM PDT by markomalley (Nothing emboldens the wicked so greatly as the lack of courage on the part of the good -- Leo XIII)
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To: markomalley

The polls are clearly nonsense..

Obama will not win a single state that he did not get 55% of the vote in 2008.

Obama has a TOP absolute TOP of 42-43% of the popular vote, and with the campaign he’s running, him not getting 40% isn’t beyond possibility.

Don’t believe for one second this race is neck and neck.. let alone Obama is up. Fight like it is neck and neck, but don’t fall for this Propoganda.


45 posted on 09/22/2012 10:35:42 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: markomalley

I agree with that. I watch FoxNews, but they screw up constantly. You can tell Conservatism isn’t truly in their heart.

In some ways FoxNews is good. In some ways, it muddles things so folks don’t truly see the left for all that it is.


46 posted on 09/22/2012 10:39:19 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Imagine how bad these global protests would be, if Obama hadn't won us so many new friends.)
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To: nwrep

Spot on.


47 posted on 09/22/2012 10:48:47 AM PDT by mojito
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To: nwrep

You couldn’t be more wrong Rasmussen has been tracking this number monthly since early 2004, the results give a very good insight on how the parties will perform in the election check the results for 11/2005, 11/2006, 11/2008 & 11/2010.

In ras’s daily tracking polls he is using a +2-3 dem turnout model still.


48 posted on 09/22/2012 10:58:05 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto

Link to ras’s party affiliation table

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


49 posted on 09/22/2012 10:58:57 AM PDT by Leto
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To: Dr. Pritchett

Exactly what I was thinking except from the other side. If the lib media get it set in peoples’ minds that BO is 5 or 8 points ahead of Romney, then they can stuff the ballot box as much as they want with BO illegal ballots because people will expect it.


50 posted on 09/22/2012 10:59:57 AM PDT by Maryhere ("HE comes to rule the earth")
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