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What if Israel bombed Iran? The view from Washington.
WaPo ^ | 9/21/2012 | Karim Sadjadpour and Blake Hounshell

Posted on 09/22/2012 12:08:33 PM PDT by mojito

President Obama is enjoying a quiet dinner with Michelle, Sasha and Malia at the White House residence on a Thursday evening in October when he gets the call.

Two dozen Israeli fighter jets have just entered Jordanian airspace, apparently en route to Iran, chief of staff Jack Lew tells him. They will enter Iranian airspace, via Iraq, in approximately 85 minutes.

“Damn it,” Obama says under his breath. “Bibi told me he was going to hold off.”

Within 45 minutes, the president’s national security brain trust has convened in the Situation Room. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta informs the group that attempts to reach Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have so far failed but that Israeli military commanders are briefing the Pentagon on Israel’s targets.

Panetta lays out the United States’ options: either persuade Netanyahu to call it off, or shoot down the planes.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Israel; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran; israel; netanyahu; nuclearweapons; waronterror
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One scenario.
1 posted on 09/22/2012 12:08:39 PM PDT by mojito
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To: mojito

The whole “shoot them down” scenario is a farce.

Obama can’t react to a dingle-berry without Jarret.

This stuff would be over and done before he could or would issue order one.


2 posted on 09/22/2012 12:13:06 PM PDT by onona (This space for rent....cheep)
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To: mojito

zero doesn’t have the sac to shoot any planes down ... except maybe OURS.


3 posted on 09/22/2012 12:14:05 PM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true)
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To: mojito

Bibi would take the low risk approach; take out the oil and the regime falls. Thirty or forty cruise missiles would probably do it. But, if you think we’re in a depression now these will look like the glory days of the 1920’s.


4 posted on 09/22/2012 12:17:45 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: mojito

Or we can let Israel do what they want and suffer the consequence. I don’t care if its Obama or Romney our defense should not be beholden to Tel Aviv. We are the big dog in this relationship and they go when we say or go alone.


5 posted on 09/22/2012 12:20:41 PM PDT by timlot
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To: mojito

I kind of doubt we would be able to see Israeli planes, let alone shoot them down.


6 posted on 09/22/2012 12:22:32 PM PDT by jimbobfoster
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To: mojito

“Obama shakes his head. “Voters don’t care about whether the attack was successful. They care about $5 gasoline.””

Isn’t a scenario like this exactly why the Strategic Oil Reserve was created? I suspect that most voters would be willing to accept a temporary spike in gas prices, if it was the price for preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Longer term — fast-track the pipeline from Alberta & drill baby, drill.


7 posted on 09/22/2012 12:23:30 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: mojito

I think the beginning of the conflict will be very much like that.


8 posted on 09/22/2012 12:27:26 PM PDT by Marcella (Republican Conservatism is dead. PREPARE)
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To: mojito

Another scenario is that Obama ducks the press and boldly plays 36 holes instead of 18.


9 posted on 09/22/2012 12:27:54 PM PDT by verum ago (Be a bastard, and Karma'll be a bitch.)
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To: mojito

For those masturbating for ANOTHER land war in the Middle East, please take note that our military is not in the best shape after 10+ YEARS in Afghanistan & Iraq. Just something keyboard commandos should consider.


10 posted on 09/22/2012 12:28:56 PM PDT by KantianBurke (Where was the Tea Party when Dubya was spending like a drunken sailor?)
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To: mojito

The Compost scenario is just that, compost.


11 posted on 09/22/2012 12:35:09 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: KantianBurke

It won’t be in any better shape after one of our allies is destroyed either. Or after a nuke is unleashed on them.

Honestly this is about preventing something worse. We wouldn’t not be here if O’Dumbass had done his job instead of skipping meeting and letting our enemies could just keep plotting and preparing against us. Heck we might even have one more ambassador now.


12 posted on 09/22/2012 12:37:28 PM PDT by jimpick
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To: mojito

Taking Iran’s infrastructure down hard is the key.

Some non-nuclear EMP weapons launched from the Arabian sea and shaped to do minimal damage to the neighbors would get the job done. Iran would instantly be pushed back a hundred years.


13 posted on 09/22/2012 12:38:56 PM PDT by upchuck (If nobama is reelected and gets to choose more SCOTUS judges, this country is finished.)
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To: verum ago

I can’t imagine anyone interupting his dinner. He just wants to eat his waffle.


14 posted on 09/22/2012 12:39:07 PM PDT by windcliff
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To: windcliff

A little off the subject. Is the “AX” still aboard the Titanic or has he deserted like the rat he is?


15 posted on 09/22/2012 12:43:59 PM PDT by willibeaux (de ole Korean War vet age 82)
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA
Obama shakes his head. “Voters don’t care about whether the attack was successful. They care about $5 gasoline

I doubt that Obama would ever say that. We care about $4.00 gasoline, and just look at what Obama is doing about that.

16 posted on 09/22/2012 12:51:28 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: KantianBurke

After a decade of Iran killing our troops through proxy I can’t help but believe many of them would love a chance to bloody a few iranians.


17 posted on 09/22/2012 12:52:05 PM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) Hey Mitt, F-you too pal)
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To: upchuck

>> “Some non-nuclear EMP weapons...” <<

.
You have developed new technology?


18 posted on 09/22/2012 12:52:15 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: KantianBurke
Have you seen someone agitating for a land war in Iran? I must have missed it.
19 posted on 09/22/2012 12:52:59 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: timlot

>> “We are the big dog in this relationship...” <<

.
Not for the last 3 1/2 years.


20 posted on 09/22/2012 12:55:10 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: Gen.Blather
[Bibi would take the low risk approach; take out the oil and the regime falls. Thirty or forty cruise missiles would probably do it. But, if you think we’re in a depression now these will look like the glory days of the 1920’s.]

On the bright side Obama might be forced to suspend exploration and drilling bans on federal lands and the continental shelf, order a universal gasoline blend for all states, and allow the Keystone pipeline to proceed.

21 posted on 09/22/2012 1:02:49 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: hinckley buzzard

US citizens? Not so much.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/new-poll-majority-of-americans-oppose-military-strike-on-iran.premium-1.464330

22 posted on 09/22/2012 1:04:00 PM PDT by KantianBurke (Where was the Tea Party when Dubya was spending like a drunken sailor?)
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To: mojito
Obama manages to break away from his national security team to join his family for a quick dinner. Sasha and Malia are talking about their schoolwork.

“I don’t like physics,” Malia says. “It’s too complicated.”

That's sexist. Or is it racist? I'm confused.

23 posted on 09/22/2012 1:05:18 PM PDT by AZLiberty (No tag today.)
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To: mojito
I have been expecting Israel to strike when the moon is dark. I've been watching the calendar for those dates. Perhaps it's just not that important anymore to have the darkness on your side though.

There is something that makes me think the strike may be near at hand. The fact that massive amounts of military assets are right now in the area for wargames, training or whatever they are gathered for. They are due to leave before long and I can't imagine Israel would miss the opportunity to strike while so many assets are in the area.

Here is a post by freeper tentmaker... I think it's a brilliant post and it does seem like a very likely time for the strike...and occurs before the arrayed forces leave the area.

Israel will attack Iran next week, probably on Tuesday or Wednesday, while Ahmadinejad is still in NY at the UN, but before Netanyahu is scheduled to arrive. (during Yom Kippur)

Israels hand is being forced by the progress that Iran has made in producing low enriched uranium. They already have over 200 kg of 20% UF6 and that's enough to disperse it to various locations making it much more difficult to destroy, while they finish enriching it to weapons grade.

Israel needs to attack soon, while it can be most effective and they can't count on US support from Obama. They either go now or risk Obama winning re-election or have to wait until next year if Romney wins. The waiting scenarios are not good, either way.

Attacking now offers the element of surprise, with Netanyahu scheduled to be in NY at the UN, Ahmadinejad out of the country and the Jewish holidays. A bonus would be that Ahmadinejad would immediately fly home, putting him in hostile air space at a time when the Israelis can predict where he'll be and make him a target.

Using a nuclear bomb detonated at high altitude over Iran would provide a crippling EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) strike against Irans infrastructure without the negative stigma of the radiation effects of using nukes. Once the electric grid is down, and most of the Iranian defenses, taking out the nuclear development sites becomes much easier.

Israel can cripple the Iranian economy, set back their nuclear program by ten years and destroy most of their military capability and it can be accomplished in 2-3 days.

This is just my personal theory, based on open source knowledge and common sense. It goes without saying that it could be wrong. We'll know in a few days.

p.s. Obama loses more face in foreign policy

It is my opinion that Israel can destroy Iran's ability to build nuclear weapons only if they use unconventional means. This would involve the use of neutron and EMP weapons. EMP to cause mass confusion and loss of communications and neutron weapons to clear the area around nuclear sites so teams can destroy them..

Israel could of course use city-buster weapons but that is very unlikely.

The hope would be that the use of nuclear weapons that did not cause massive fallout would keep the conflict from escalating to WW3....I have no idea how this would play out.

There is one possibility that may help reduce the possibility of escalation to WW3. The Israeli's could mount a very ineffective attack on Iran. The world would immediately point the finger at Israel and laugh at their weakness. Iran and all her proxies would jump in with both feet against Israel and try to take advantage of the moment. They would likely overplay their hand by allowing chemical weapons to be used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon or by Syrian forces.

Everything would change once weapons of mass destruction were used on Israel. At that point Israel could clean house across the ME using whatever force was needed.

If this ploy of using an ineffective strike to cause an attack by Iran's proxies using chem/bio did not work then nothing is lost as Israel could immediately attack using neutron and EMP weapons, such an attack would be successful and in any case Iran would unchain their proxy forces anyway so why not at least try to make them escalate first.

Someone I respect has told me they think the best time for a strike is immediately before we go to the polls in Nov. This does make a certain sense to me.

I suggest every freeper start saying some prayers....I think its going to be a bumpy ride.

24 posted on 09/22/2012 1:10:21 PM PDT by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: mojito

Well if someone posts some more Mohammed cartoons on the internet beforehand then the rest of the Arab world would be so busy rioting that they wouldn’t even notice Israel bombed Iran.


25 posted on 09/22/2012 1:10:45 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: Gen.Blather

Lower risk approach. Take out the power grid and as much C and C as possible.


26 posted on 09/22/2012 1:14:19 PM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: Brad from Tennessee

“On the bright side Obama might be forced to suspend exploration and drilling bans on federal lands and the continental shelf, order a universal gasoline blend for all states, and allow the Keystone pipeline to proceed.”

I believe he would rather we were all dirt poor Okies. The intention of the Cloward Piven strategy was to make all Americans poor so we’d accept Communism.


27 posted on 09/22/2012 1:16:23 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: Former Proud Canadian

“Take out the power grid and as much C and C as possible.”

I doubt that would collapse the regime. The bomb program proabaly has its own power generation too. If not, it could be easily supplied.


28 posted on 09/22/2012 1:20:52 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: hinckley buzzard
Have you seen someone agitating for a land war in Iran? I must have missed it.

When was the last time a war was won through airpower alone?

29 posted on 09/22/2012 1:24:46 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: mojito
Complete rubbish.

This "scenario" is the kind of nonsense you get from beltway desk jockey's whose military experience is that they drive past the Pentagon on their way in to work.

30 posted on 09/22/2012 1:27:01 PM PDT by FredZarguna (Who ya gonna believe? Your metrosexual smartphone or your lyin' eyes?)
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To: mojito

Should that happen, 20+ million of us should go to DC to file a complaint, in person.

If such a scenario were to unfold in October, I don’t think that Obama would do a damn thing, except to make it appear as though he’s engaged.

After the election, win or lose, Obama will have much “more flexibility”.


31 posted on 09/22/2012 1:31:36 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Ryan and the other guy.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: editor-surveyor
You have developed new technology?

Don't look at me.

Go get some education.

32 posted on 09/22/2012 1:53:35 PM PDT by upchuck (If nobama is reelected and gets to choose more SCOTUS judges, this country is finished.)
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To: mojito

Actually Obama would go to bed early if the attack started in early evening so he could be ready to fly some where for a fund raising event with his wealthy Hollywood supporter. If it occurred during the day he would not let it interfere with his golf game and fund raising. His spokes people would blame Bush/Chaney and the neocons. They would twiddle their thumbs as the middle east burns. The other alternative would be that they would notify the Iranians of the pending attacks and give them info from our AWACs planes and land based sites to teach the Israelis not interfere with hiscreelection efforts.


33 posted on 09/22/2012 1:56:02 PM PDT by airedale
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To: Gen.Blather
Remove the Command and Control completely, the Ayatollahs, Imadinnerjacket and the Republican Guard and Qom...cut off the head of the snake and it dies
34 posted on 09/22/2012 2:08:14 PM PDT by Rumplemeyer (The GOP should stand its ground - and fix Bayonets)
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To: Bobalu

Something we must keep in mind, the Israelis have a
history of preemptive strikes, the few times they have
been late it has been a close run thing.
It would seem to me that it would be the time to
deal with Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and to secure the
west bank to bring Jerusalem completely under their
control.

In for a penny, in for a pound.
It’s a lot to swallow, but they will be on the receiving
end no matter what they do.


35 posted on 09/22/2012 2:10:29 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: Gen.Blather
"Iran atomic chief says 'explosives' cut power at Fordo"

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4282169,00.html

Ummm, seems like some of their facilities are susceptible to power cuts. Don't get me wrong, I look for the Israeli's to attack the oil industry and transportation. I think they might have something special in mind for the power grid. It would wreak absolute havoc.

What if you just sealed up the entrances to the facilities?

36 posted on 09/22/2012 2:51:59 PM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: mojito
“Damn it,” Obama says under his breath. “Bibi told me he was going to hold off.”

Obviously fiction. The real line would be:

"Allahu akbar," Obama fumes under his breath "The infidel dog zionist told me he was going to bomb England".

37 posted on 09/22/2012 3:00:46 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: mojito

1. To shoot down Israeli aircraft, they would have to be found, first. We tried to get ‘too close’ in 1967, and they closed that door, rather quickly.

2. Most of the winds that blow across Iran, blow easterly. The radioactive cloud, rising from the remains of the reactor, would not endanger Iraq.

3. A strike against Command and Control would be smart, considering the blustering Iranians talk of new ground-to-air missiles.

4. A strike on the theopolitical heads of government, would be in turn, with Command and Control. This would include all civilian TV and radio communications.

5. Israeli aircraft purchased from the U.S., are capable of Mach 2 sustained flight. As a rule of thumb, for a nuke-loaded and all fuel tanks full, with all fires lit, F-4 Phantom II, during the Cold War, from RheinMein AB, West Germany to Moscow, USSR, was a one-way of 20 minutes!
I’m sure, with the newer jet engine efficiency, and with a flying gas station somewhere, the scenario of 88 minutes could be shaved a bit.

6. Friday is “church day” for Mohammedans. The Jewish ‘shabbatz’, begins at sundown on Friday. I am sure whatever is stewing for ‘shabbatz’, will be well enjoyed by all the returning aircrews, and in time to wash up, and for mama to light the candle.

7. Whatever happens, pay no mind to our effeminate ‘short timer’ President. (Somebody ought to send him an old GI Short-timers Calendar!) I’m sure that the real President, Valerie Jarrett, will be busy with something, and cannot be found right away.


38 posted on 09/22/2012 3:13:14 PM PDT by Terry L Smith
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To: timlot; All

“I don’t care if its Obama or Romney our defense should not be beholden to Tel Aviv. We are the big dog in this relationship and they go when we say or go alone.”

Oh goodness, a not so transparent anti-Israel bigot. Israel can and must act in its best interests as we in America have always done. The “big dog” thinking, in dealing with an ally, is specious.

Actually, destroying Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons is in American interests as well as Israeli. Unfortunately, American leaders (of either party) don’t have the courage to do what is in our best interests...because of short term pain (oil prices). However, IF we fail to act, then our children and grand children will inherit and even more unstable world than now....if that is possible.

I hope Israel does take the action necessary to preempt further Iranian agression. America will only act IF forced. The same thing that happened in WWII by the attack on Pearl Harbor. IF America had of gotten more involved, and sooner, then it may have preempted many of the German and Japenese attrocities committed.

Whatever, take your anti-Israel bigotry elsewhere. It doens’t really belong on Free Republic.


39 posted on 09/22/2012 3:43:36 PM PDT by Sola Veritas (Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks mojito.
40 posted on 09/22/2012 4:04:07 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: mojito

Netanyahu is one of the few leaders in the world who takes his responsiblity to his citizenry seriously. He has to. I have no interest in starting a war with Iran or any other Islamist state, but if Bibi chooses to do so, I would support Israel rhetorically and advocate for US support in the form of financial, diplomatic, and military resources.

I would have no problem playing the kid on the playground that holds everyone back while the two other kids go at it.


41 posted on 09/22/2012 4:06:10 PM PDT by Mr. Bird
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To: editor-surveyor
"Some non-nuclear EMP weapons..."

You have developed new technology?

He did.

Yes, there are non-nuclear EMP weapons: NNEMP (Google it). Smaller area of effect.

I, too, expect Israel to be the first nation to use one in combat.

Popular Mechanics ran an article about it 15 or so years ago. I read it while getting my son his first haircut at Supercuts.

You learn a lotta stuff while in a waiting room. ;)

42 posted on 09/22/2012 4:11:04 PM PDT by sauron ("Truth is hate to those who hate Truth" --unknown)
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To: mojito

Thursday evening? He’ll have to miss Dancing with the Stars (or whatever dribble is on that night) to deal with something more important.


43 posted on 09/22/2012 4:14:08 PM PDT by tips up (Living is easy with eyes closed, misunderstanding all you see.)
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To: upchuck
Explosively pumped flux compression generator...

Is that something like a flux capacitor ;-)

44 posted on 09/22/2012 5:02:52 PM PDT by NoCmpromiz (John 14:6 is a non-pluralistic comment.)
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To: Terry L Smith
4. A strike on the theopolitical heads of government, would be in turn, with Command and Control. This would include all civilian TV and radio communications.

Do you think, if we asked nice, that they'd be willing to take out MSNBC, CNN, and ABC while they're at it? /sarc>

Cheers!

45 posted on 09/22/2012 5:06:08 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Sola Veritas

Trust I’m not anti-Israel, but I am pro-America. This idea that we should send our sons and daughters to war on a time table dictated by some other country is crazy and dangerous. Yes the Jewish community is very strong and of course Israel is an important ally, but we elect our own President and Congress to make those decision on our behalf.


46 posted on 09/22/2012 5:46:13 PM PDT by timlot
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To: timlot

The entire situation with regards to Iran is built around a time table. Iran’s time table to develop and deploy nuclear weapons. And no one here is advocating US involvement. In fact, Israel has been the leader of the Free World ever since GWB declined to support the Israeli strike on the Syrian nuclear reactor complex. The best we can hope for from an Obama run US, is for the US to stand down. With psychopath Obama running the military, one never knows what will happen. Just look at the great work Obama has done in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Syria.


47 posted on 09/22/2012 6:56:07 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: NoCmpromiz

[smile]

I wondered about that myself.


48 posted on 09/22/2012 7:27:20 PM PDT by upchuck (If nobama is reelected and gets to choose more SCOTUS judges, this country is finished.)
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To: Bobalu

Do you know when all the military assets that are amassed in the region are scheduled to depart?

Interesting post. Thank you.


49 posted on 09/23/2012 1:07:35 AM PDT by AlanGreenSpam (Obama: The First 'American IDOL' President - sponsored by Chicago NeoCom Thugs)
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Comment #50 Removed by Moderator


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