Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania (Obama 47 Romney 45)

Pittsburgh Tribue-Review ^ | 09/22/2012 | Mike Wereschagin

[nhwingut]

Link Only...

[HamiltonJay]

I don’t know what Ras is doing but I can tell you anyone who’s polling is showing Obama support in PA anywhere near 2008 levels if off by a long long way.

I think if Romney/Ryan don’t fight for PA, Obama wins PA by 2-5 points at best.

If Romney/Ryan decide to fight for it, its certainly something they could win, but for whatever reasons they are not fighting for it. I assume its a strategic decision.

[BlueStateRightist]

It’s quite possible Rasmussen has national polling down pat, but doesn’t do states too well. But, if Romney isn’t there campaigning then his internals are the reason. In other words, don’t get your hopes up about PA.

[JerseyDvl]

Just yesterday I saw a poll that had him down double digits. It was remarked that an R hasn’t won Pennsy in some 25 years or so and were writing it off.
What is psy ops and what is news these days?

[SamAdams76]

But, if Romney isn’t there campaigning then his internals are the reason.

Correct. Maybe his internals show him up 8 points so that might be why he's in Colorado instead.

[randita]

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!

[BlueStateRightist]

You can wake up now. If Romney is up 8 in PA, then he’s up 15 in Colorado, and he can go back to his summer house in NH (where’d he’d be up 18) for the next 7 weeks.

[STJPII]

Wgy is Manchin up in WV now?

[fortheDeclaration]

All polls between now and the end of Oct are as useful as the NFL ‘power rankings’.

[GVnana]

Now that is a very interesting website.

[Son House]

Obama campaign ad that claims Romney raises taxes on the middle class by $2000. That number is based on the assumption “IF” Obama can extend the Bush Tax Cuts for the middle class.

Romney wouldn’t be President until January 20, 2013. Even if Romney wins, he couldn’t extend the lower rates, the Bush Tax Cuts expire in December, 2012.

Also, Obama’s plan only offers the tax cut for 1 year for the middle class. After that, the middle class do get an increase they claim is being done only by Romney.

[RightWingNilla]

IIRC, something approaching 50% of PA’s electricity is ultimately derived from coal (an industry Obama explicitly said he would “put out of business).

What fool outside of Philadelphia (which is beyond all hope) would vote for Obama? Would he to win a second term, the coal plants should collectively Go Galt and extend a middle finger to the state. May their power go out.

[Lexinom]

Agreed 100%. Romney is our Kerry. If we support him we’re rewarding the GOP-e.

[LS]

I didn’t catch that change-— yet he came out yesterday with a poll showing that nationally thevGOP has its highest ID level in YEARS-—37.5.

[LS]

Where did you hear about Romney’s “internal polls.” I’m deeply skeptical, even though I don’t trust any of the national polls.

[LS]

I heard about that. Refreshing.

[LS]

Ridiculous. This is not about Romney or a “GOPe” but about saving our country from Obama anyone who doesn’t help is no better than an Obama voter. ALL choices come done to one of two choices. Yes, or no, 1 or Zero.

[Fresh Wind]

Looks like Ras (O+12) was an outlier.

No kidding! To believe that Rasmussen poll, you also have to believe that Obama is running stronger than he did in 2008.

[tanknetter]

But by and large I have been a poll taker giving Gov Romney his “internal poll”.

I hope I don't come across as splitting hairs/dealing in semantic here (I don't intend to at all) but in campaign management what you're doing would be classified as being part of GOTV - Get Out The Vote. Extremely important, and we all really appreciate your effort, but unlike polling where the goal is to figure out both how your candidate and the other guy are doing, GOTV is focused on determining actual supporters and then motivating them to get to the polls on election day.

A solid GOTV effort, for instance is what gave Bush Ohio (and therefore reelection) in 2004.

"Internal polling" really refers to the same kinds of polling that the MSM are doing - random calling (or sometimes repeat calling) of numbers to achieve a snapshot of how the candidate/opposition are doing. The difference with the campaign polling is that the campaign pollsters use different weighting and turnout projections in their polls. For instance (probably harping a bit on this at this point), 2008 was a D+7 election. MSM polls have consistently been using that as the basis for their results, and in many cases higher numbers in the D+9 to D+13 range.

What an internal poll will do is start with the assumption that 2008 was an historic election with a very elevated D turnout. So they'll dial back the D numbers to what they think actual turnout will be (they can use other polls to narrow this down). So for instance they'll go with D+2 (as Rasmussen seems to be doing). With that, the whole picture will change - Obama may be up by 4 in a D+13 poll, but in a D+2 poll Romney will be ahead. Which one is more accurate? Commonsense right now says the D+2 one ... but we'll see on election day.

[ballplayer]

Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39

[Fresh Wind]

Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39

Obama was 54.6% vs. McCain 44.3% in 2008, that's Obama by 10.3%. If Rasmussen's poll is accurate, then Obama is doing better in 2012 than 2008. That's just doesn't pass the smell test.