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Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania (Obama 47 Romney 45)
Pittsburgh Tribue-Review ^ | 09/22/2012 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 09/23/2012 3:57:41 PM PDT by nhwingut

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To: nhwingut

This is very confusing. I saw a Rasmussen poll a few days ago which shows Obama up 51 to 39 in Pennsylvania. These polls are driving me nuts. Just everyone go out and vote, that is the most important thing we can all do


51 posted on 09/23/2012 5:43:17 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: nhwingut

Unskewedpolls.com says differently. Romney up 7.8%


52 posted on 09/23/2012 5:45:11 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: nhwingut

Man, I would really like to see a string of ads featuring the people Romney has helped over the years. The oness at the convention and the ones on Beck had me in tears at times and they could just be compressed into an ad. If you can make someone cry with a political ad you’ve got them, especially given the narrative that Mitt doesn’t care about the poor.

Does anyone know if any of the outside groups are planning something like this ? I know Romney won’t do it himself as he does this stuff in secret for a reason. If one of the outside groups comes up with ads like that they’ve got my money.


53 posted on 09/23/2012 5:47:17 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: 9422WMR
"Remember the 2010 elections? Rats are trying to make us forget they were destroyed last time out."

And in 2010 the press was saying the GOP was in trouble and might not survive. But then the press is largely made up of ignorant jackass suck-ups.

54 posted on 09/23/2012 5:56:41 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: Mangia E Statti Zitto

I think they would do just fine working Ohio and taking the market spillover into Western PA. I would do a hard, heavy, energy independence, pro coal ad.


55 posted on 09/23/2012 6:12:14 PM PDT by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
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To: Lysandru

The MC for the Emmys just asked the audience if any of them were voting for Romney. About half the audience started clapping. I almost fell out of my chair. We were just channel serving and stopped to hear the answer. It was amazing to hear!


56 posted on 09/23/2012 6:16:05 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Lysandru

I don’t know this poll, the Trib definitely is the right leaning paper in the pittsburgh area, but this poll certainly reflects what I am empirically seeing in my daily conversations with people.

The very idea that Obama has support in PA anywhere near his 2008 level is LAUGHABLE. Any poll showing Obama up 10 or anything like it in PA is fundamentally flawed.

PA is within striking distance if it is fought for, not saying the Romney/Ryan camp will fight for it, but it is winnable if they do. The idea that OHIO is in play or IA is just as laughable.

Obama will not carry a single state he didn’t get at least 55% of the popular vote in 2008 period.


57 posted on 09/23/2012 6:22:20 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: tanknetter

I work this campaign twice a week and it seems that we are indeed poll takers for the most part. The phone system here in FL is impressive. The dialing is automatic, responses are keyed into the phone and two pushed buttons leave a message and free you up the instant you hear the first words from an answering machine. If you put your head down and just work, you can easily make 200 calls an hour.

Every call that is registered as a wrong number or a disconnect along with other unknown phone number addresses is fed into a different system that generates “door knocking” lists. We are sent out with scripts and bubble result pages that are scanned once we return to the office. Of course we go out with a bunch of literature for unanswered doors andhand outs and we say a few kind words to try to convince and undecideds we meet. But by and large I have been a poll taker giving Gov Romney his “internal poll”.

Given that the Romney office is 15 miles away the nearest obot office is 5 minutes, mischief has most certainly been on my mind. But I am not sure I could stand the smell in such close confines.


58 posted on 09/23/2012 6:27:16 PM PDT by lovesdogs (Nevermind what I post...I have clothespins handy and will vote for Mitt.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I live in PA and I can tell you ANY POLL and I don’ care who is giving it that shows OBAMA with a lead in PA ANYWHERE near what he had in 2008 is flat out wrong.. why its wrong, I couldn’t say but his support is GONE evaporated...

If Romney doesn’t fight for PA Obama will likely win with a 2-5% margin at best. ANY Poll showing him up 10 points or anything close to 2008 here is laughably off base.

Obama will not win any state he did not carry 55% of the popular vote in, in 2008.

PA is very much a battleground IF they republicans decide to fight for it, so far it doesn’t seem like by media buys that Romney/Ryan are buying here, and that could be nothing more than strategic decisions, but believe me, Obama up 10 in PA is not remotely accurate.


59 posted on 09/23/2012 6:27:36 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Holly_P

When you’re done puking don’t forget to vote and FIRE Obama.


60 posted on 09/23/2012 6:28:41 PM PDT by bigoil (Study Thy Nixon)
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To: ncalburt

I don’t know what Ras is doing but I can tell you anyone who’s polling is showing Obama support in PA anywhere near 2008 levels if off by a long long way.

I think if Romney/Ryan don’t fight for PA, Obama wins PA by 2-5 points at best.

If Romney/Ryan decide to fight for it, its certainly something they could win, but for whatever reasons they are not fighting for it. I assume its a strategic decision.


61 posted on 09/23/2012 6:33:57 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: nhwingut

It’s quite possible Rasmussen has national polling down pat, but doesn’t do states too well. But, if Romney isn’t there campaigning then his internals are the reason. In other words, don’t get your hopes up about PA.


62 posted on 09/23/2012 6:56:28 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: nhwingut

Just yesterday I saw a poll that had him down double digits. It was remarked that an R hasn’t won Pennsy in some 25 years or so and were writing it off.
What is psy ops and what is news these days?


63 posted on 09/23/2012 7:06:15 PM PDT by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
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To: BlueStateRightist
But, if Romney isn’t there campaigning then his internals are the reason.

Correct. Maybe his internals show him up 8 points so that might be why he's in Colorado instead.

64 posted on 09/23/2012 7:06:31 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: fatima; xsmommy; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; brityank; Physicist; WhyisaTexasgirlinPA; GOPJ; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!


65 posted on 09/23/2012 7:15:40 PM PDT by randita
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To: SamAdams76

You can wake up now. If Romney is up 8 in PA, then he’s up 15 in Colorado, and he can go back to his summer house in NH (where’d he’d be up 18) for the next 7 weeks.


66 posted on 09/23/2012 7:21:48 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: snarkytart

Wgy is Manchin up in WV now?


67 posted on 09/23/2012 7:26:02 PM PDT by STJPII
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To: nhwingut

All polls between now and the end of Oct are as useful as the NFL ‘power rankings’.


68 posted on 09/23/2012 7:32:19 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GilGil
Now that is a very interesting website.
69 posted on 09/23/2012 7:49:33 PM PDT by GVnana
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To: nhwingut

Obama campaign ad that claims Romney raises taxes on the middle class by $2000. That number is based on the assumption “IF” Obama can extend the Bush Tax Cuts for the middle class.

Romney wouldn’t be President until January 20, 2013. Even if Romney wins, he couldn’t extend the lower rates, the Bush Tax Cuts expire in December, 2012.

Also, Obama’s plan only offers the tax cut for 1 year for the middle class. After that, the middle class do get an increase they claim is being done only by Romney.


70 posted on 09/23/2012 7:58:06 PM PDT by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: nhwingut

IIRC, something approaching 50% of PA’s electricity is ultimately derived from coal (an industry Obama explicitly said he would “put out of business).

What fool outside of Philadelphia (which is beyond all hope) would vote for Obama? Would he to win a second term, the coal plants should collectively Go Galt and extend a middle finger to the state. May their power go out.


71 posted on 09/23/2012 8:22:34 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: Holly_P

Agreed 100%. Romney is our Kerry. If we support him we’re rewarding the GOP-e.


72 posted on 09/24/2012 1:05:23 AM PDT by Lexinom
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To: ncalburt

I didn’t catch that change-— yet he came out yesterday with a poll showing that nationally thevGOP has its highest ID level in YEARS-—37.5.


73 posted on 09/24/2012 3:11:24 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Adriatic Cons

Where did you hear about Romney’s “internal polls.” I’m deeply skeptical, even though I don’t trust any of the national polls.


74 posted on 09/24/2012 3:13:08 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: kcvl

I heard about that. Refreshing.


75 posted on 09/24/2012 3:17:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Lexinom

Ridiculous. This is not about Romney or a “GOPe” but about saving our country from Obama anyone who doesn’t help is no better than an Obama voter. ALL choices come done to one of two choices. Yes, or no, 1 or Zero.


76 posted on 09/24/2012 3:24:09 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Adriatic Cons
Looks like Ras (O+12) was an outlier.

No kidding! To believe that Rasmussen poll, you also have to believe that Obama is running stronger than he did in 2008.

77 posted on 09/24/2012 3:25:36 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: lovesdogs
But by and large I have been a poll taker giving Gov Romney his “internal poll”.

I hope I don't come across as splitting hairs/dealing in semantic here (I don't intend to at all) but in campaign management what you're doing would be classified as being part of GOTV - Get Out The Vote. Extremely important, and we all really appreciate your effort, but unlike polling where the goal is to figure out both how your candidate and the other guy are doing, GOTV is focused on determining actual supporters and then motivating them to get to the polls on election day.

A solid GOTV effort, for instance is what gave Bush Ohio (and therefore reelection) in 2004.

"Internal polling" really refers to the same kinds of polling that the MSM are doing - random calling (or sometimes repeat calling) of numbers to achieve a snapshot of how the candidate/opposition are doing. The difference with the campaign polling is that the campaign pollsters use different weighting and turnout projections in their polls. For instance (probably harping a bit on this at this point), 2008 was a D+7 election. MSM polls have consistently been using that as the basis for their results, and in many cases higher numbers in the D+9 to D+13 range.

What an internal poll will do is start with the assumption that 2008 was an historic election with a very elevated D turnout. So they'll dial back the D numbers to what they think actual turnout will be (they can use other polls to narrow this down). So for instance they'll go with D+2 (as Rasmussen seems to be doing). With that, the whole picture will change - Obama may be up by 4 in a D+13 poll, but in a D+2 poll Romney will be ahead. Which one is more accurate? Commonsense right now says the D+2 one ... but we'll see on election day.
78 posted on 09/24/2012 3:27:08 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: tips up

Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39


79 posted on 09/24/2012 3:30:27 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: ballplayer
Rasmussen Obama 51 Romney 39

Obama was 54.6% vs. McCain 44.3% in 2008, that's Obama by 10.3%. If Rasmussen's poll is accurate, then Obama is doing better in 2012 than 2008. That's just doesn't pass the smell test.

80 posted on 09/24/2012 3:44:06 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: Fresh Wind

Forgot to mention, those are 2008 Pennsylvania numbers.


81 posted on 09/24/2012 3:45:09 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: GVnana
Now that is a very interesting website.

Interesting, but amateur night...look at the dates; '2112' instead of '2012'...news stories several months old. Fun numbers, but can't take them seriously...

82 posted on 09/24/2012 3:53:49 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: nascarnation

Ditto. The men behind the curtain with Ivy League degrees and pompous self-images really are zombies mouthing the party line. There is little thinking in liberalism.


83 posted on 09/24/2012 4:29:15 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: BlueStateRightist
Well I don't know about that. The latest mainstream media poll has Romney just two points down in PA. The actual internals could well show Romney ahead, which is why he's focusing his efforts elsewhere.

I have a feeling we'll see Romney/Ryan in PA sometime in the next few weeks to firm the state up.

84 posted on 09/24/2012 5:37:39 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Holly_P

It is amazing. I know some that live in the middle of coal country and the left have convinced them that coal dust along the roads is killing them. Not enough deep thinking going on. They want to drive toys that burn tons of energy, but they don’t want dirty hydrocarbons coming out of the ground.


85 posted on 09/24/2012 5:59:41 AM PDT by LongViewSC
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To: LS
Here you go. From last Wed.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2933529/posts

86 posted on 09/24/2012 6:07:28 AM PDT by Adriatic Cons (Allen West... Will make a GREAT POTUS on day... For now, I'll settle for R&R)
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To: nhwingut

There’s that 47% again.


87 posted on 09/24/2012 6:08:31 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: jocon307
..most accurate polls are the ones done by the campaigns that never see the light of day.

So true which is why I think this poll is an overstretch having just recently read that Romney pulled out of PA. I doubt he pulled out because it's in the bag, but it's a nice dream.

88 posted on 09/24/2012 6:34:29 AM PDT by StarFan
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To: GVnana

It is isn’t it?


89 posted on 09/24/2012 7:31:02 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: Lexinom
I have come to respect you greatly over the years and I am saddened at your profound lack of wisdom here. Even if your premise was correct (and it's not) you're saying we have a choice between the GOP establishment and a Marxist who will deep six our economy permanently, possibly on purpose.

Getting Obama out of the White House is almost certainly a matter of national survival. Vote accordingly.

90 posted on 09/24/2012 7:39:32 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: nhwingut

Amazing...Obama is going going to hit road on Nov 6.


91 posted on 09/24/2012 8:11:54 AM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: StAnDeliver
Photobucket
92 posted on 09/24/2012 8:13:29 AM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: Lysandru
Are you sh**ing me? Unfreakin-believable. How is it that Romney can be doomed (allegedly)?

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh drown out the rest of the stake. Two blue dots in an otherwise red state.

93 posted on 09/24/2012 9:42:22 AM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Proud Teabagging Barbarian Terrorist Hobbit Son-of-a-Bitch!)
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To: FreeAtlanta

The miners are too uninformed to know of Obama’s position on coal.


94 posted on 09/24/2012 11:05:22 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: Theodore R.

Hmmmm ..?? I remember seeing info somewhere about Romney meeting with the Coal Union people and they were supporting Romney.


95 posted on 09/24/2012 11:08:34 AM PDT by CyberAnt ("America is the greatest nation on the face of the earth".)
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To: Mr. Silverback; LS

The main thing that keeps me - barely - on the Romney side is the SCOTUS.

The main argument against a Romney victory lies in the cycle enunciated by one Alexander Tytler:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage.

The more quickly we can pass through the apathy/dependence/bondage phase, the sooner real rebuilding can begin.


96 posted on 09/24/2012 2:13:54 PM PDT by Lexinom
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