Skip to comments.Politico-GWU poll: Race still a virtual dead heat (D-43/R- 40/I-15 with leaners among likely voters)
Posted on 09/24/2012 7:18:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Politico headlines their analysis of their latest Battleground Poll with GWU by claiming that “President Obama pulls ahead of Mitt Romney,--- but only within the margin of error. At 50/47 among likely voters, it's mildly good news for Obama, especially by reaching the 50% mark that had eluded him in previous iterations of the poll. However, in a sample of just over 800 likely voters in a national poll, the survey confirms that the race is more or less static heading into the debates:
President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race thats been static for much of the year.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.
Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. Its an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.
Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.
The survey was conducted by a bipartisan team of pollsters, with widely divergent views of the data. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake pointed to the favorability change and claimed Romney is “in deep, deep trouble,” which is the problem when partisans poll. A shift from 46% to 49% over seven weeks is statistical noise, within the margin of error and basically meaningless.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas gives a different take, after noting that the difference between this poll and the BG survey from seven weeks ago was a one-half-percent shift toward Obama:
The past several weeks have been filled with news stories, editorials and columns heaping criticism on the tactics and strategy of the Romney campaign. Many of these opinion pieces even suggested that Romneys only hope for winning is to make substantial changes to his campaign. Much of this analysis is based on the premise that Romney is out of touch and has not been making an affirmative case to middle-class voters. His comments at a private fundraiser in May were pointed to as an illustration that he could never identify with and win the support of many middle-class voters. We took a special look at middle-class voters, and middle-class families in particular, in this latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll and found that not to be the case. In fact, on every measure it is Romney who is winning the battle for the support of middle-class families.
Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August. In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent). Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate. These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.
All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot. In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent), foreign policy (+3 percent), spending (+15 percent), taxes (+7 percent), Medicare (+2 percent), and jobs (+10 percent). Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was standing up for the middle class (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.
For those wondering, the sample in this poll is actually pretty decent. The D/R/I is 34/31/33 without leaners, 43/40/15 with leaners. That’s a defensible turnout model for the election; D+3 would be just about in the middle from 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s even turnout.
Otherwise, there are a few interesting points from the extensive internals published from the survey. First, Romney is leading by 2 among independents, 46/44, which Obama won by 8 in 2008. The gender gap favored Obama by 14 in his last election (+13 among women, +1 among men), but he’s down to a +4 in this poll; Romney wins men by 6, 51/45, while Obama wins women by 10, 53/43. Romney wins married voters by 14 points, 55/41, and wins married women by five at 51/46, but trails among the single and divorced in both genders by wide margins. Romney is doing better in McCain states from 2008 (60/37) than Obama is in states he won in 2008 (54/42). Romney’s also winning ticket splitters by 10, 48/38.
One more data point: Despite a poll that came out last week, this survey shows Romney winning the Catholic vote by eight points, 51/43, but the Baptist vote by only one point, 49/48. The Catholic vote has been a pretty clear bellwether in American elections over the last several decades. If Obama is losing independents and Catholics and is only down to a +4 gender gap, the road to victory looks pretty narrow indeed.
Still think you need take 2 to 3 points way from Obama and give to Romeny because people are lying to Pollsters and don’t want to admit they are not voting for Obama.
I realize there are a lot of stupid people in America but I refuse to believe there are that many stupid enough to re-elect someone whose first term has been such a spectacular failure.
Yeah right PoliticHOES!
“Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events”.....
Sliding where??? From down 6 after the convention to TIED?!
These people are so ridiculous.
Note the latest trick now with pollsters. While they reduce the bogus skewed partisan splits (here it is a reasonable D+3 - although I still say they are in for a shock that will show R+3)). They now reduce Independents (who are breaking for Romney) to give Obama the lead.
A Democrat POTUS nominee cannot lose indies and win the election.
2000 Gore (Indies +1) (Popular Vote Margin E) (Diff -1)
2004 Kerry (Indies +2) (Popular Vote Margin -3) (Diff -5)
2008 Obama (Indies +8) (Popular Vote Margin +7) (Diff -1)
TIP: Take a look at independent margin, add 1-2 for GOP. And that is your margin of victory, either way.
Example here: Obama is down 2 with indies. He will lose by 3-4 points.
Example B: If Obama were up 5 with indies. He would win by 3-4.
Keep eye on the Indies. Ignore everything else. No matter what they do, they cannot impact how a certain demo will vote.
And, BTW, Romney, who supposedly hates the middle class, is up by 15 points with middle class in this poll. LOL!
www.unskewedpolls.com has Romney up 7.8%
Looks to me like they’re under sampling Independents.
Here’s the assumption the site you mentioned : www.unskewedpolls.com makes:
The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.
SO, THEY WORK WITH THE ASSUMPTIONS THAT THERE ARE 4.3% MORE REPUBLICANS WHO WILL VOTE THAN DEMOCRATS, WHILE MOST OTHER POLLS ASSUME THE OPPOSITE.
The all important question then is this -— WHOSE ASSUMPTIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY?
We might WISH that www.unskewedpolls.com is correct, but wishing does not necessarily make it so.
What GOOD REASONS are there to believe that www.unskewedpolls.com weighing assumptions are correct?
Paradoxical Quote of the Day from Ben Stein:
“Fathom the hypocrisy of a government
that requires every citizen to prove they
are insured. . . but not everyone must
prove they are a citizen.”
Now add this, “Many of those who refuse,
or are unable, to prove they are citizens
will receive free insurance paid for by
those who are forced to buy insurance
because they are citizens.”
So independents don’t count? What a sham of a poll.
Anything coming out of Politico is skewed left. Romney is leading by 14 pts in the middle class. Thats very telling of what the likely truth is.
I have noticed that as well. It's been going on for about 2 weeks now.
And your analysis of the Independent vote is right on. It is the key to this election. So expect the MSM to start lying more and more about it as we move into the final weeks of the election cycle.
>> this survey shows Romney winning the Catholic vote by eight points, 51/43, but the Baptist vote by only one point, 49/48
Hmmm... I could *understand* 43% cluelessness from the Catholics, who like the Jews have a soft spot for marxists...
, but what kind of idiot Baptist would give Barack Obama the time of day? 48%?? I’m not sure I believe that.
Unless it’s skewed by BLACK baptists, but there aren’t THAT many of those — are there?
I hear that a lot... but why would they even take the poll, if they don't want to be honest? Why not just refuse/hang up? Sorry, I'm not convinced.
Baptists are the largest Protestant grouping in the United States, and the Southern Baptist Convention is the largest Protestant denomination in the U.S., with 16 million members.
The largest denomination among African Americans is the National Baptist Convention, with 7.5 million members, along with the smaller but more liberal Progressive National Baptist Convention (PNBC), with over 2000 churches and a total membership of 2.5 million.
I have spoken to a lot of Southern Baptists and I am quite certain that only a HANDFUL will vote for Obama. Their main concern with Romney is his MORMON faith.
Black Baptists are turned off by Obama’s stance on gay marriage and his extreme stance on partial birth abortion ( where he would not even support a bill protecting an infant surviving a botched abortion ). However, they still feel some kinship with him based on skin color ( no getting away from that ).
As for the progressive baptists, there is no doubt that they will go with Obama.
It remains to be seen if Southern Baptists can overcome their concern with a Mormon president and turn out in huge numbers and if Black Baptists are sufficiently turned off by Obama’s liberal stance on social issues to either vote Romney or stay home.
Yeah I cannot understand why the supposed "Republican" pollster allowed this sample. This is the third poll I have seen doing this. They know the bloggers watch the samples so they have started oversampling Dems and Republicans and under-sampling Independents. The only justification for this sample is to get Obama to the magic 50% number.
So independents dont count? What a sham of a poll.
Your concern is VERY PLAUSIBLE and LIKELY CORRECT.
According to Wikipedia:
As of 2010, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. By 2011 Gallup found that Americans identifying as independents had risen to 40 percent. Gallup’s historical data show that the proportion of independents in 2011 was the largest in 60 years. This increase came at the expense of Republican identification, which dropped to 27%, while Democratic identification held steady from 2011. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party. Combining leaners with each party’s core identifiers, for 2011 the parties ended up tied at 45 percent.
TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT — THERE ARE MORE REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS IN AMERICA THAN DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS.
Registered independents? Registered with who/what?
This poll was from a little over a week ago:
Polls show Romney soars with independent voters
a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.
Both Democrats and Republicans believe independents will be critical to deciding the outcome of the election, in part because they make up a growing part of the electorate and are considered up for grabs because they fluctuate in their political preferences from one election to the next.
“That’s a significant lead,” said pollster Ron Faucheux.
It was the independent vote that helped Obama win the 2008 election. He won 52 percent of independents, compared with 44 percent for McCain. Independents comprised about 33 percent of the overall vote in 2008.
“If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election.”
True, but it's the D/R mix that's really important. In this case, it's not far off...
If the D/R ratio is OK, but they're both high (and I is too low), it's a marginal effect. If Romney is up by 10 among Indies... and Indies should be 30% vs 15%, he would only gain 1 or 2 points in a 36/33/30 breakdown, vs the current 43/40/15.
considering the way the media covered Romney’s 47% remarks 24/7 and depressed obama’s lies on the libya assault, Romney being within the margin of error is a victory...
i watched CNBC this morning in the gym, actually read the closed caption as volume was off...they had a female GOP strategist (former Gringrich campaign manager) and a rat strategist....they made obama look foolish for his 60 minutes interview last night...as the GOP rep said, “last week on univision he said his greatest failure was lack of immigration reform...three days later on 60 minutes he says his greatest failure was not changing the tone in Washington- obama changes like the weather”...
even the hosts at CNBC applauded Romney saying the specifics he laid out, means testing for SS and removing some deductions for high income earners, is a must strategy...the rat clown even agreed with that...my question is, why is Romney not forcefully making this case???
...and the poll gives the Dems a 3% lead over the republicans with or without leaners when Rasmussen’s ID poll shows that Repubs are ahead of the Dems in voter ID by 4.3%.....
...and the poll gives the Dems a 3% lead over the republicans with or without leaners when Rasmussen’s ID poll shows that Repubs are ahead of the Dems in voter ID by 4.3%.....
Thanks for your informed insight.
So if you roll it all up... does a 49/48 Baptist split pass the smell test? Or not?
Independents were actually 33% — it drops to 15% when they are pushed to “lean” toward one party or the other.
RE: does a 49/48 Baptist split pass the smell test? Or not?
I would say that most Baptists are Evangelicals ( conversely, not all Evangelicals are Baptists ).
IMHO, In the end — evangelicals will overcome their concern with having a Mormon as president and reluctantly vote for Romney as the much lesser of the two evils.
They will reason that we are not voting for a Pastor but a commander in chief and it is better for someone whose social values ( at least in terms of rhetoric ) matches theirs than the other one who is KNOWN not to be sympathetic at all to their social concerns.
So no, 49/48 is a little bit too tight in my opinion. I believe Romney’s eventual lead among the Baptists will be much bigger than that.
Had the candidate been Santorum, Newt, Cain or Bachmann, this would not even be an issue at all... but here we are — we’re stuck with Mitt... the lesser of two evils.
>> Had the candidate been Santorum, Newt, Cain or Bachmann, this would not even be an issue at all... but here we are were stuck with Mitt... the lesser of two evils.
True enough, but water under the bridge at this point. We have to do the best we can.
Thanks and FRegards
Those here with all the hoopla ..I never figured out what their denominations were.
I am Southern baptist.
I don't personally know any that will not vote to remove Obama.
We don't agree with tenets of Mormonism or several other denominations.. ..but..most Mormons I know are very traditional trustworthy folks who I like being around and we view our cultural struggles in similar fashion.
I go to a large traditional praise oriented SBC congregation and it is pretty much in the open that we have to get rid of this guy...yes...even hinted from the pulpit
not like black churches but more open than usual
black churches for all the blather...are social and fiscal libs with tiny exceptions
for one thing...serial illegitimacy is well tolerated by them even if there is disdain for the homosexual agenda...they will vote Obama...their brother
Disagree on all fronts. All the GOP primary candidates have significant flaws. Perhaps we should admit that only a minority candidate like Rubio would be performing where we all know the GOP candidate should be. The demographics of this country have changed dramatically, and conservative white men and women are demonized by the MSM such that a guy like Romney will always be handicapped at least 5%. Herman Cain made a lot of us delirious with love (I included), but as time marched on he showed some flaws that would have made him a weak nominee (adulterer, somewhat inarticulate, to name two such flaws).
The future of the GOP has to include nominees like Rubio, Cruz and Martinez, or a true conservative of a black man without skeletons. The era of the white guy is soon to be over, regardless if Romney wins.
>> Disagree on all fronts. All the GOP primary candidates have significant flaws.
That’s fine; it’s certainly your perogative, and the “flaws” statement is a truism.
But you may have lost sight of the context of my exchange with SeekAndFind.
SeekAndFind was musing that BAPTISTS — not GOP/Conservative voters in general — would be coming out in greater support for a candidate like Cain, Bachmann, or Santorum than they apparently are for the Mormon candidate Romney.
I can’t help but agree with that — it seems obvious to me.
In other polling the “leaner” support for Obama is weak. It shows that 3% of Romney learners say they can be swayed but 9% of Obama learners say they can be swayed.
This race is not over by a long shot.
I don’t believe anyone gives a crap about what pollsters think of them. Not even a teenage girl.
You can’t just completely unskew the polls and believe they are accurate. I believe Romney has a 1-point lead or is even with Obama right now with at most a 1-point lead for Obama possibly. But, it is insane to think Romney is ahead by 7. You can’t unskew the polls and assume that is accurate to the people who took the poll.
They are basically assuming Ras party ID will be correct for TURNOUT purposes, which would be a historic number of GOP voters not seen in over 100 years. That’s not logical. I am inclined to believe the Gallup results with a +1 GOP is more accurate. I think Romney wins and the polls are skewed Dem, but you can’t completely unskew them. It’s somewhere in the middle of the Romney up 7 and Obama up 7.
My thinking is they are on the right track, but it would be nearly unprecedented for their model this time to be correct. That said, the polls mostly use 2008 results and aren’t realistic, which is what the site is trying to correct. I would guess maybe GOP +1 (as Gallup shows) or slightly Dem, maybe Dem +2 max.
Let’s do this, since no one seems to be in agreement. Dems had a huge turnout in 2008. GOP did well in 2010. In the polls we seem to be arguing about which way the numbers should be skewed due to historical assumptions. I do not have time to do the math, but what would the results of these polls be if they were weighted 33% dem/ 33% GOP and 34% Independent. I realize that the party affiliation as a whole will be higher for the GOP, but to weight it in this way should compensate for those areas where there is a Dem advantage. I am just guessing here, trying to come up with a tenable solution.
2010. Unlikely that tsunami is still running as high in 2012, but I believe the water is still high enough to sink Bobo. R1+I3 would do it.
2008 had people who don't vote, never voted, vote in spectacular numbers.
Every axiom of electoral polling states that people will revert to their usual voting behavior absent the motivation to continue. Every number to date says that motivation is not there: Amish are down in interest, Jooz are down in interest, maybe the Sandra Slutz contingent holds steady, while the married middle class is mad and motivated for Mittens.
This is the first breakdown of a poll I’ve seen which has Independents at only 15%... It is a bad poll, and skewed to Obama big time.
Here are 2 more....found these tonite, How did Zogby & Weask do in 08?
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