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Poll: Obama ticks up on Romney in tight race
Politico ^ | September 24, 2012 | JAMES HOHMANN

Posted on 09/24/2012 8:22:02 AM PDT by lasereye

President Barack Obama has opened a national lead in a tight race that’s been static for much of the year.

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground of likely voters finds little good news for Mitt Romney but a race that remains competitive.

Obama leads 50 percent to 47 percent, which is within the margin of error. His 50 percent job approval rating puts him at a crucial threshold for an incumbent seeking reelection. It’s an uptick from the spring and summer, but 48 percent still disapprove.

Romney, meanwhile, finds himself sliding in the wake of two events — the choice of his running mate and the Republican national convention — that were supposed to buoy his candidacy. His unfavorable rating ticked up from 46 percent to 49 percent over the past seven weeks, as the share viewing him favorably held steady at 46 percent. Personal likability boosts the president, who is viewed favorably by 53 percent.

“The window is narrowing for Romney, and he’s in deep, deep trouble,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who helped conduct the bipartisan poll, said Sunday.

“Ultimately, people don’t like this guy. If they don’t like someone, it’s hard to get people to vote for him — particularly to fire someone they do like.”

The universe of voters who might change their mind also has shrunk significantly. One in five supporting a candidate said they’d consider someone else last month. Now it’s closer to one in 10. Regardless of who they’re supporting, 60 percent now expect Obama to win. Democrats say this will fuel late Obama momentum. Republicans think pro-Obama turnout could drop off if people expect him to win.

The poll’s Republican pollster, Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group, notes that Romney is winning independents by 2 points.

“Our original premise that this was going to be a very close race is just reinforced with most of this data,” he said. “This race is far from over.”

Obama now ties or has an edge over Romney on who is best to handle every major issue except the federal budget and spending.

Romney has lost his edge on jobs. A month ago, he led Obama by 6 points on the question of who is best equipped to put Americans back to work. Now they’re even. Among those who say creating jobs is their top priority, Obama’s up 11 points.

A slight majority disapproves of the way Obama’s handling the economy, yet he narrowly leads Romney on who is better to manage it.

Approval for Obama’s tax policy has risen from 46 to 51 percent in the last month, and Obama has a 4-point edge on who will better handle the issue after the two tied in the previous poll.

“For the first time in decades, Democrats have persistently had an advantage on taxes,” said Lake. The Democrat has also expanded his advantage on Medicare. He leads Romney by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent, on who can better handle the entitlement program. The president had a 4-point edge in the week before Romney announced Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his running mate.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; election; obama; romney
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1 posted on 09/24/2012 8:22:06 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Personally, I doubt anything Politico publishes due to their extreme bias.


2 posted on 09/24/2012 8:23:24 AM PDT by basil (Second Amendment Sisters.org)
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To: lasereye

Oh Politico. Just be quiet.


3 posted on 09/24/2012 8:25:17 AM PDT by albie
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To: lasereye

Simple question, how does Obama “tick up” by 3 points in a race that’s been tied all year- when they have reported for months that Obama leads and Romney was finished?

Next question is in which alternate dimension would people feel Obama is good with the economy?


4 posted on 09/24/2012 8:26:46 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


5 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:27 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


6 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:27 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


7 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:27 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


8 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:27 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


9 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:27 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


10 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:30 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: albie

Everyone I talk to that is changing their vote this year is going from Rat to Rommney. No one I have talked to is moving from McCann voter to Obama.


11 posted on 09/24/2012 8:27:30 AM PDT by Oldexpat
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To: lasereye

Bizarro World


12 posted on 09/24/2012 8:33:00 AM PDT by crosshairs (America: Once the land of the free. Still the home of the brave.)
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To: basil

Which is why Romney is up an average of 7.8% according to www.unskewedpolls.com


13 posted on 09/24/2012 8:33:43 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: basil

It’s supposed to be a bipartisan poll. Tarrance is the Republican pollster and Lake Research Partners is the Democrats.


14 posted on 09/24/2012 8:35:33 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Actually... the truth is just the opposite.

LLS


15 posted on 09/24/2012 8:40:20 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: lasereye

This poll was taken last weke during the height of the 47% nonsense and favors D+3 with leaners.


16 posted on 09/24/2012 8:40:20 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: lasereye
HOHMANN = (WHORE)MANN...it's a O'Bozo "whoring" organization.

17 posted on 09/24/2012 8:41:36 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: GilGil

NPR, of all people, reported on Morning Edition that Romney is kicking Obama’s butt in rural areas 60-40 which is a turnaround from 2008.

One brief interviewee implied that the ‘guns and bible guilt trip’ pushed him to vote for the moose limb and that he is now disappointed.


18 posted on 09/24/2012 8:45:31 AM PDT by Surrounded_too
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To: lasereye

Is this the poll that has Romney up 14 points with the middle class?


19 posted on 09/24/2012 8:45:47 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: lasereye

How can obama gain a lead, when he has led all along, and when Romney has lost the entire campaign at least once a week for the past three weeks?


20 posted on 09/24/2012 8:47:05 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: GilGil

Well, I’ll tell you. This “unskewed polls” idea is going to be the scoop of the year/decade if it turns out to be right.

It is going to look like silly wishful thinking if it turns out to be wrong.

I sure do hope it is the former.


21 posted on 09/24/2012 8:49:51 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Surrounded_too

see: Whats up with the polls http://www.teapartytribune.com/2012/09/22/whats-with-these-polls-romney-51-8-obama-44-r52-o45-r54-o44-r51-o44-r50-o45/


22 posted on 09/24/2012 8:50:56 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: lasereye

Of course Politico covers up the fact Romney wins middle class voters by 14 points in this poll


23 posted on 09/24/2012 8:54:15 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: KC_Conspirator

I think D+3 is about average for Presidential elections. It’s not the D+9 like some other polls have.


24 posted on 09/24/2012 8:56:37 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: GilGil

I agree many of the polls are clearly skewed but it seems www.unskewedpolls.com weights the polls to be about R+1 based on Rasmussen.

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama

There hasn’t been a Presidential election with R+1. Bush’s wins were with a small Democrat edge in party ID. I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.


25 posted on 09/24/2012 9:04:58 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

In September 1980 Carter was up in the MSM polls over Reagan by eight points and in October 1980 he was up on Reagan by nine points in the MSM polls.

In November 1980 Carter lost to Reagan anyway.

In November 2012 Obama will lose to Romney anyway.


26 posted on 09/24/2012 9:14:32 AM PDT by MeganC (The Cinemark theatre in Aurora, CO is a 'Gun Free Zone'. Spread the word.)
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To: Andrei Bulba

Answer: they tick up the weighting factor for Democrat-leaning voters to push Zero’s numbers up by 3.


27 posted on 09/24/2012 9:17:35 AM PDT by RightWingConspirator (Obamanation--the most corrupt regime since Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe)
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To: italianquaker
>>Is this the poll that has Romney up 14 points with the middle class?

Per Fox, Who would best represent the middle class? Obama: 58% Romney 37%. Of course, this doesn't address the issue of the Romney ads praising Obama for being a good dad. Why is Romney throwing the race? What happened to "the strong finisher Romney"? All those years, all those campaign millions, all those primary opponents gutted like trout. And in the home stretch, we have Romney the Millionaire Nerd praising Obama as a "good person." Are Republicans insane?

28 posted on 09/24/2012 9:17:35 AM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
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To: MNJohnnie
"Of course Politico covers up the fact Romney wins middle class voters by 14 points in this poll--"

And as mentioned in an earlier reply, 60-40 in rural areas. The problem is given the demographic shifts in the nation, these groups are now or are becoming minorities. That said, of course the polls are skewed and meaningless prior to the debates. The rub is though that demographics are destiny.

29 posted on 09/24/2012 9:18:20 AM PDT by buckalfa (Nabob of Negativity)
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To: lasereye

“There hasn’t been a Presidential election with R+1. Bush’s wins were with a small Democrat edge in party ID. I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.”

A couple of reasons. Rassmusen reports a R+3.4 registration advantage this August via its party self-identification poll. Second, a number of polls are reporting a significant Republican enthusiasm advantage, thought right now the ObamaMedia is vigorously trying to spin this the other way.

Of course, national numbers are essentially meaningless though anyway, because what really counts is what people in the battleground states are going to do.


30 posted on 09/24/2012 9:23:37 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Oldexpat

That’s because you haven’t talked to anyone who lives in Spain.


31 posted on 09/24/2012 9:30:14 AM PDT by RavenLooneyToon (Tail gunner Joe was right.)
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To: lasereye

I agree reasonable polling sample is +3-4 Dem. Skewing it the other way based on a single Rass poll is probably not reasonable.


32 posted on 09/24/2012 9:34:59 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: lasereye

break down of demographics is crucial


33 posted on 09/24/2012 9:43:23 AM PDT by Nifster
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To: MeganC

I don’t think any poll showed Carter up those amounts that late.


34 posted on 09/24/2012 9:43:29 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Apparently, one poll had Carter at 63% with Reagan at 32%.

http://polipundit.com/?p=36246


35 posted on 09/24/2012 9:51:02 AM PDT by MeganC (The Cinemark theatre in Aurora, CO is a 'Gun Free Zone'. Spread the word.)
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To: MeganC

I think that’s bogus. I clicked on the link to the poll and it give “page not found”.


36 posted on 09/24/2012 9:55:06 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

“I don’t see why it should be R+1 any more than it should be D+9.”

Precisely! You have it smack on. You are questioning the polls and my point is that if we are going to blast the MSM polls we may as well blast the unskewedpolls.com polls. 95% of the Freepers on this forum discuss the polls as if they are true and Freepers have no ability to properly resist them and discuss them.

There are too many facts that point to an Obama wipe out which is why the MSM is counter spinning so hard. It is so obvious;yet, people on our side just fall apart the moinute they read the MSM polls and have no ability to think critically.

At least your above statement says that you have the ability to resist the propaganda and read through the lines. Too many people love to preach doom and gloom becasue that is the lazy man’s way to fall I love with his own opinion.

Can you say President Romney?


37 posted on 09/24/2012 10:04:05 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Here is what it comes down to IMO. If Obama can get the same turnout from the base as 2008 then he’s no worse than tied nationally and probably ahead in the swing states. I don’t see how there could be a wipeout unless the polls are clearly over estimating the Dem base turnout. We won’t know if that’s the case until election day, but the Dems have a good GOTV operation.


38 posted on 09/24/2012 10:43:24 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

POLITICO = House Boy


39 posted on 09/24/2012 10:46:38 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: lasereye

Wipeout because the enthusiasm is substantially down amongst all of Obama’s voter groups. If Obama was so much more ahead why even bother campaigning. He can play gold all day long if he has it so much in the bag. He is not is he? why is he cramming so many fundraisers if he is doing so well? Why is he having trouble raising money if he is doing so well. the facts point to a wipeout. The pollsters including Raz are fearful. I can imagine the unreported attacks Raz is experiencing for even polling a little different thean the Kool-aide drinkers.


40 posted on 09/24/2012 11:01:29 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: lasereye
Romney has lost his edge on jobs.

How the eff does this happne?

I know this poll was taken at the height of the 47% attack by the lib media and has a D +3 advantage.

41 posted on 09/24/2012 11:30:39 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: KC_Conspirator

Well this poll like Ras ^ Gallup is using a +3 D model the Gallup and Ras Party affiliation surveys are showing a +R affiliation. Ras’s is probably high at +4.3% R the rebalancing is using a +1.23% R model which I believe is the Gallup party affiliation model. The Ras Oct number will be released on Oct. 1.

The 2010 turnout was +1.3 R so the 1.23% R is very realistic.

Using that adjustment here:

http://polls2012.blogspot.com/

Remarkably all 3 polls from today (Ras, Gallup & Battleground) when rebalanced come out the same, 49.89% Romney, 46.28% Obama, the number of undecideds is ~3.6%. If they split say 2:1 for Romney (a bit low by historical standards) we have Romney leading 51.9% to 47.5%.

Again this corresponds very well with the Economic state by state prediction.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

From the CU website:

“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”

Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.”

I trust this ‘non political’ analysis far more than the speculation of the pollsters. It really is the economy as Carville said.

I would also note that Romney is leading by double digits among independents in all these polls.

Normally we are regaled in stories in the MSM about the importance of independents, hear ANYTHING About Indies this year?

Nope just crickets.

Think about it folks.


42 posted on 09/24/2012 12:50:40 PM PDT by Leto
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To: GilGil

I didn’t say Obama’s way ahead. I said there’s no wipeout for Romney coming if Obama gets the Dem base to turn out. Obama would have an excellent shot to win in that case.


43 posted on 09/24/2012 12:52:50 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: Leto
The 2010 turnout was +1.3 R so the 1.23% R is very realistic.

Using the 2010 turnout is ridiculous. There is no repeat of 2010 coming. The turnout will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010. D+3 is probably about right.

44 posted on 09/24/2012 12:57:01 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

I very much disagree As politico reported back in April. Dem registration is DOWN in just the battleground states as reported by Politico hardly a RW site:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

“A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.

GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.

Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.

The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way and appearing first in POLITICO, points to the critical role independent voters will play in determining the presidential outcome in some of the most competitive states on the 2012 map — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

The biggest independent gains came in North Carolina, the site of the Democratic National Convention this year and a state that was decided by less 15,000 votes in 2008. While both major parties lost ground there in the four years since then, Democrats have been especially hard hit: Registration fell by 116,662 (–4.1 percent), compared to a GOP decline of 13,017 (­­­-0.7%).”

Couple this WITH the Double Digit Romney is holding among independents.

So be as pessimistic as YOU choose there is noting in the hard data to support your POV other than your ‘feelings’.

Personally I leave feelings to libs, I try to deal with whatever facts are available and try to draw logical conclusion from the data.


45 posted on 09/24/2012 1:03:27 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Leto
I like your analysis; but historically, I can't recall the last time R party affiliation was ahead of dems during a presidential election year. They have always drummed up more drones during these years. It would have to take a year like 2004 when the GOP had such a stunning ground game.

But then again, nobody has had this bad of an economy on their record in 30+ years...

46 posted on 09/24/2012 1:03:47 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: KC_Conspirator

Can you recall the last time we had a president as divisive and incompetent as Obama?

Prior to 2010 when was the last time the GOP were +60 in an election in the House. ;)


47 posted on 09/24/2012 1:37:48 PM PDT by Leto
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To: KC_Conspirator; Leto

That’s my point. An R+1 would be a first since probably back in the twenties. Could it happen? Sure. Can we assume it will happen? I think that’s a stretch.


48 posted on 09/24/2012 1:45:24 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: KC_Conspirator; Leto

I wonder what the numbers would be with D+1 or even. That would still indicate things are better for Romney than most polls are showing.


49 posted on 09/24/2012 2:03:47 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: pabianice

Wrong poll that must be the one with the +10 democrat internals but thnx anyway


50 posted on 09/24/2012 2:18:39 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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