Skip to comments.Swing State Daily Tracking: 50% Approve of Obama’s Job Performance
Posted on 09/24/2012 10:04:38 AM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
In the 11 swing states, the president earns 46% of the vote, and Mitt Romney is supported by 44%. Three percent (3%) are not sure, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
After modest post-convention bounces for both candidates, the race is back to where it was at the beginning of the month.
When leaners are factored in, Obama receives 48% of the vote to Romney's 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
Both candidates earn 84% support from Swing State voters in their respective parties. Romney leads by six, 43% to 37%, among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.
Nationally, the race remains a toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The presidents Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 50%. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. These figures include 29% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Pappy used to say:” You can’t fix stupid”....
Bible says the wages of sin is death...guess if Obama wins second term, we will find out what both those terms mean...
Buried in this is this nugget. 3% of Romney learners say they might switch their vote but 9% of Obama learners say they might switch their votes. Obama’s support with leaners is weak.
Ignore these polls; they’re bogus.
Must be states just plumb full of math majors..../s
What has that idiot in chief accomplished other than hammering our national finances into the ground and apologizing to those who want to kill us?
More than a few Libtards place as much thought into how they vote, as they do when they pick their favorite sports team. To these select idiots, they are DNC fanatics - it doesn’t matter what the economy is like, or what rights they take away - what matters is that the DNC is having a “down” season - and being the illiterate idiots that they are, they are incapable of critcal analysis. To them, it’s nothing but another kind of sports playoff.
Can someone please tell me how this is possible? Some days I really feel like I am living in an alternate universe.
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the today’s swing state polls, updated as needed throughout the day:
Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (American Research Group)
Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (American Research Group)
Michigan: Obama 54%, Romney 42% (Rasmussen)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Civitas)
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (American Research Group)
Wisconsin: Obama 53%, Romney 41% (We Ask America)
Obama will not win a single state he didn’t get 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. This isn’t a race folks.
Ras is pretty decent polling but for whatever reason even his polling is missing what’s going on on the ground.
I am not someone who dismisses polls that don’t support my position or candidate, but my impression is that almost all of the past several national elections (for President or Congress) have underestimated the percentage of the vote Republican received on election day. With that history, I’m feeling very good about being ‘tied’.
Very bad for Pathological Liar-In-Chief. The new full Loyola College tape which validates Romney 47% statement (welfare winning political coalition) should also leach a few points from The Marxist.
This country is going insane. Literally.
Yep - most of my fellow constituents seem stuck on stupid...
If you are not going to show the weighting of the Dem and Rep components of the polls, then don’t bother listing them.
Thanks but no thanks, you’re not helping....
All polling is an educated guess.
Most pollsters look at the last Presidential election year. So what they try to do is form a polling sample they think accurately reflects the current voting population. The mistake most of the pollsters are making is they are basing their samples on the 2008 Presidential election. That was an abnormally good year for Dems.
So you are seeing polling in states that oversampled Democrats by 4-11 points over current party registration numbers. It is absurd.
Well it is absurd unless you agree with the pollsters that Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?
It’s really very hard to see a job performance by Obama that merits “approval”.
Sad to say but to the extent voters do approve, I’d guess it is the steady beat of media propaganda explaining away or hiding all the disasters.
Oh the other mistake you make is you take Politcal Wire, a far Leftist blog, seriously. They are only going to give you the pro Obama polls and ignore ones showing Obama not doing so hot.
Thanks. I was surprised that about the Michigan gap, given that Rasmussen generally seems more realistic in its polling results. But I am new at this.
Please explain teh following from Rasmussen:
“Both candidates earn 84% support from Swing State voters in their respective parties. Romney leads by six, 43% to 37%, among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.”
So they tie on party support and Romney leads among independents.
So then how does Obama lead slightly, unless there are considerably more democrats than republicans in the swing states?
90% of registered repubs vote Repub. 90% of registered Dems vote Dems. So it really comes down to who is going to show up. Depending on how these polls are modeled - If they are just a representation of ‘registered voters’ then dems tend to have more people registered in most of those states than repubs. However this is a terrible model as it doesn’t take in to account ‘likely voters’ people that actually vote. Every poll has a different model if they do this.. they look at previous years (Obama high turnout in 2008, lackluster support of McCain) and try to guess the likely hood of those numbers repeating. This is all statistical guessing and the only thing that matters is: Who is going to show up to vote? So poll biases can be built in everywhere. Believe what you want.. Nov has the only poll that matters.
No one below 50% approval rating has ever been re-elected. Obummer is at about 47%. He’s toast. Just go out and vote for Mitt. All will be well.
Well let’s say Obama opens a big lead in Michigan, that would skew the overall “swing state” number.
There really is no cure for stupid. Our economy is a disaster, Obama thinks the deaths of four Americans is just a “bump in the road” and that Iran is just “noise” yet these buffoons STILL think Obama is doing a good job..unbelievable..no wonder our country is going down the road of Greece
What was President Bush’s approval rating in 2004? Of course, he was running against Kerry, lol.
I’m tossing out a question to everyone here. Who cares what polling predicts? They only get a 9% response rate. In what other area would anyone give a single thought to a survey with a 9% response rate? It’s ridiculous to give this nonsense any credence.
Bush’s approval/disapproval number in Nov 2008 was 53-44
Bush’s approval/disapproval number in Nov 2004 was 53-44
Sorry Nov 2004, not Nov 2008
The article says: Three percent (3%) are not sure, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Can someone tell me the difference but “not sure” and “undecided”?
Thanks. I had seen something saying that it was at 48 percent right before the election.
The media buries all bad news for Obama. CBO released information that way more people will be getting taxed thanks to Obamacare than originally thought and all the media could do that day was focus on some tape of Romney talking about how too many Americans are dependent on the Gov’ment.
How many Americans do you think know about the fact they’ll be getting taxed more than they know thanks to Obamacare vs know what Romney said about 47%? One is meaningless the other will affect their lives.
Maybe Mitt should run ads during Honey Boo Boo so the soft and lazy minds will actually know wtf is happening in this country and to them.
Three percent (3%) are not sure, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
Can someone tell me the difference but not sure and undecided?
It is going to be a very tight race.
Ignore everything and vote. Get as many people as you can to vote. There is a lot of physiological warfare going on on both sides. Ignore it. The 2000 election was decided by fewer then a few thousand votes.
Voting matters and there is a large well funded effort going on right now to suppress conservative turn out.
They must have interviewed people who have a job. All I can say to them is.... good luck holding on to it in obama’s second term. May they be the first to go for their utter stupidity.
Thank you. Interestingly enough, Ohio has a lot of Independents, and Rasmussen has Romney leading those.
But back to the notion Ohio has more democrats, then it would not seem to be much of a “swing state” and more of a blue state.
This is not today’s Rassmussen Poll. It is 47% O 46% Romney and when leaners are figured in for Monday September 24th, 2012 they are tied at 48% each.
Use the above instead. Any analysis of party strength in Ohion from 2008 is so far out of date as to be useless
You should see my facebook page. We are finished as a country w 50% of the morons in this country.
What would be the difference between “undecided” and “not sure”? Should one of them be they prefer “some other candidate’?
so by doing some simple algebra, Rasmussen is saying:
R = 21.3%
D = 28.7%
I = 50.0%
as far as I’m concerned, Rasmussen is no more reliable than any of the other RAT propaganda push polls. There is no way, on the face of this earth, for this election that RATS are +7% vs Repubs and Indies are 50% of the voters. Not credible in this lifetime or any other.
“Three percent (3%) are not sure, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. “
What’s the difference between not sure and undecided?
Sounds like 10% brain dead to me.
Thanks for the link. Don’t know why my Google-fu was so weak as to not find that.
Which is maybe why unskewedpolls.com has Romney up by an average of 7.8%
I really am stunned. Half of Americans in the swing states think he is doing a good job?
Public schools and liberal info-tainment media (national and local—both are in the tank for Obamugabe) are doing their duty.
They must love those higher gas and food prices.