Posted on 09/24/2012 10:04:38 AM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
In the 11 swing states, the president earns 46% of the vote, and Mitt Romney is supported by 44%. Three percent (3%) are not sure, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
After modest post-convention bounces for both candidates, the race is back to where it was at the beginning of the month.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama receives 48% of the vote to Romney's 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
Both candidates earn 84% support from Swing State voters in their respective parties. Romney leads by six, 43% to 37%, among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.
Nationally, the race remains a toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 50%. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. These figures include 29% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Pappy used to say:” You can’t fix stupid”....
Bible says the wages of sin is death...guess if Obama wins second term, we will find out what both those terms mean...
Freegards
LEX
Buried in this is this nugget. 3% of Romney learners say they might switch their vote but 9% of Obama learners say they might switch their votes. Obama’s support with leaners is weak.
Ignore these polls; they’re bogus.
Must be states just plumb full of math majors..../s
What has that idiot in chief accomplished other than hammering our national finances into the ground and apologizing to those who want to kill us?
More than a few Libtards place as much thought into how they vote, as they do when they pick their favorite sports team. To these select idiots, they are DNC fanatics - it doesn’t matter what the economy is like, or what rights they take away - what matters is that the DNC is having a “down” season - and being the illiterate idiots that they are, they are incapable of critcal analysis. To them, it’s nothing but another kind of sports playoff.
Can someone please tell me how this is possible? Some days I really feel like I am living in an alternate universe.
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the today’s swing state polls, updated as needed throughout the day:
Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (American Research Group)
Iowa: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (American Research Group)
Michigan: Obama 54%, Romney 42% (Rasmussen)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Civitas)
Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (American Research Group)
Wisconsin: Obama 53%, Romney 41% (We Ask America)
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/24/latest_swing_state_polls.html
Obama will not win a single state he didn’t get 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. This isn’t a race folks.
Ras is pretty decent polling but for whatever reason even his polling is missing what’s going on on the ground.
I am not someone who dismisses polls that don’t support my position or candidate, but my impression is that almost all of the past several national elections (for President or Congress) have underestimated the percentage of the vote Republican received on election day. With that history, I’m feeling very good about being ‘tied’.
Very bad for Pathological Liar-In-Chief. The new full Loyola College tape which validates Romney 47% statement (welfare winning political coalition) should also leach a few points from The Marxist.
This country is going insane. Literally.
Yep - most of my fellow constituents seem stuck on stupid...
If you are not going to show the weighting of the Dem and Rep components of the polls, then don’t bother listing them.
Thanks but no thanks, you’re not helping....
All polling is an educated guess.
Most pollsters look at the last Presidential election year. So what they try to do is form a polling sample they think accurately reflects the current voting population. The mistake most of the pollsters are making is they are basing their samples on the 2008 Presidential election. That was an abnormally good year for Dems.
So you are seeing polling in states that oversampled Democrats by 4-11 points over current party registration numbers. It is absurd.
Well it is absurd unless you agree with the pollsters that Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?
It’s really very hard to see a job performance by Obama that merits “approval”.
Sad to say but to the extent voters do approve, I’d guess it is the steady beat of media propaganda explaining away or hiding all the disasters.
Oh the other mistake you make is you take Politcal Wire, a far Leftist blog, seriously. They are only going to give you the pro Obama polls and ignore ones showing Obama not doing so hot.
Thanks. I was surprised that about the Michigan gap, given that Rasmussen generally seems more realistic in its polling results. But I am new at this.
Please explain teh following from Rasmussen:
“Both candidates earn 84% support from Swing State voters in their respective parties. Romney leads by six, 43% to 37%, among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.”
So they tie on party support and Romney leads among independents.
So then how does Obama lead slightly, unless there are considerably more democrats than republicans in the swing states?
90% of registered repubs vote Repub. 90% of registered Dems vote Dems. So it really comes down to who is going to show up. Depending on how these polls are modeled - If they are just a representation of ‘registered voters’ then dems tend to have more people registered in most of those states than repubs. However this is a terrible model as it doesn’t take in to account ‘likely voters’ people that actually vote. Every poll has a different model if they do this.. they look at previous years (Obama high turnout in 2008, lackluster support of McCain) and try to guess the likely hood of those numbers repeating. This is all statistical guessing and the only thing that matters is: Who is going to show up to vote? So poll biases can be built in everywhere. Believe what you want.. Nov has the only poll that matters.
No one below 50% approval rating has ever been re-elected. Obummer is at about 47%. He’s toast. Just go out and vote for Mitt. All will be well.
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