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Democrats’ Advantage in Voter Registration Slipping in Key States
National Review Online ^ | 09-24-12 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 09/24/2012 1:57:47 PM PDT by MNJohnnie

This news release – announcing that there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats – suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.

In terms of how many voters are registered with each major party, Democrats continue to hold advantages in several key swing states, but in all of those states, their advantage is considerably smaller than it was in 2008.

In Florida, as of last month there are 4,627,929 registered Democrats and 4,173,177 registered Republicans, which amounts to a a 454,752-voter advantage for Democrats. (Keep in mind, Florida has 11.5 million registered voters, so there are a lot of unaffiliated and third-party voters.)

In 2008, there were 4,800,890 registered Democrats in Florida and only 4,106,743 registered Republicans, a 694,147-voter advantage. So while the number of voters who registered with the GOP is up from four years ago, Democrats are down roughly 170,000.

In Nevada, there are 447,881 registered Democrats to 400,310 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 47,000. (Keep in mind, the state has 1.4 million registered voters right now.) In 2008, the state split 531,317 registered Democrats to 430,594 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 100,000.

In New Mexico, as of July 31, there are 582,656 registered Democrats to 385,898 registered Republicans, a Democrat advantage of 196,758 voters. In 2008, there were 594,229 registered Democrats and 375,619 registered Republicans, an advantage of 218,610 voters.

In North Carolina, as of Friday, there are 2,778,535 registered Democrats and 2,008,609 registered Republicans, a 769,926-voter advantage. But on Election Day 2008, there were 2,866,669 registered Democrats and 2,002,416 registered Republicans, an 864,253-voter advantage. This is another state where Republicans have already gotten more voters registered with their party than the preceding cycle.

In many states, residents who wish to cast ballots must register to vote within 25 to 28 days before an election.

In Pennsylvania, as of today, there are 4,185,377 registered Democrats to 3,099,371 registered Republicans, a 1,086,006-vote advantage for Obama’s party. But as daunting as that sounds, it’s smaller than in 2008, when there were 4,479,513 registered Democrats to 3,242,046 registered Republicans, a 1,237,467-vote advantage.

Virginia does not register voters by party.

One state where the GOP had and continues to have a small advantage is in Colorado. In that state, as of September 1, there are 837,732 active registered Republicans and 739,778 active registered Democrats, about a 98,000-voter advantage. On Election Day 2008, the GOP had 1,065,150 registered Republicans and 1,056,077 registered Democrats, about a 9,000-voter advantage.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; elections2012; polls; registration
Which makes the mass medias claims that their over sampling Democrats in their polls matches reality on the ground even that much more tendentious.
1 posted on 09/24/2012 1:57:51 PM PDT by MNJohnnie
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To: LS; Perdogg

You might find this intresting


2 posted on 09/24/2012 1:58:33 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

Great news all around.


3 posted on 09/24/2012 2:01:42 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: MNJohnnie

Great news. Gotta get people registered to kick Obamuggabe out in November.


4 posted on 09/24/2012 2:02:58 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: WashingtonSource

Paging Scotty Rass, please put down the Twinkie and pick up the white courtesy phone, reality calling.


5 posted on 09/24/2012 2:04:13 PM PDT by pburgh01
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To: MNJohnnie

Twice, today, once in the PA/Susquehanna poll analysis by Lee and one in an analysis of rural votes, we have had pollsters day that Obama is 7% off his 08 pace. Hmmm. Now this.


6 posted on 09/24/2012 2:06:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: MNJohnnie
The dead are being disenfranchised!
7 posted on 09/24/2012 2:07:40 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: MNJohnnie

That is why you have these BS polls which over samples Dems by 15+ points. They know that if the TRUE polls came out it would show Romney with a clear lead. They are hoping that with these polls, that enough Republicans will stay home


8 posted on 09/24/2012 2:17:32 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: MNJohnnie

I fail to see how voter registration is even relevant for the Dem side. With motor voter laws everywhere, I would harbor a guess that there are millions of folks on the voter rolls that have never voted. If GOP is taking a lead after decades of that, I have a good feeling of who will be getting 47% of the vote in six weeks. Though Jerry Brown supposedly did just sign same day voter registration bill today. But CA was already screwed.


9 posted on 09/24/2012 2:39:47 PM PDT by ScottinSacto (Liberals support abortion on demand and gay marriage....sounds like a great strategic plan!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda
They are hoping that with these polls, that enough Republicans will stay home

I'm always amazed by this way of thinking.....and I'm not disagreeing or disputing you btw.

I have never stayed home or was discouraged into staying home in my life. I don't know of any conservative that has. Perhaps there are conservatives or republicans who do get discouraged enough to stay home....certainly the "anybody but Romney" crowd on this forum has threatened repeatedly to do so....but I truly question how much this actually works for the donks....especially in this vital election.

Not that they don't try for certain...

10 posted on 09/24/2012 2:52:20 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (Don't be afraid to see what you see. -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: prairiebreeze

The only reason why I say this is because I remember in 2008 listening to Rush and Mark Levin and hearing caller after caller saying “Why should I bother voting, Obama’s already won” do those people who say that actually at the end go out and vote I’m not sure but when I hear stuff like that I understand why the Dems are doing this again


11 posted on 09/24/2012 3:06:26 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: MNJohnnie
"... In Nevada, there are 447,881 registered Democrats to 400,310 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 47,000. (Keep in mind, the state has 1.4 million registered voters right now.) In 2008, the state split 531,317 registered Democrats to 430,594 registered Republicans, a split of roughly 100,000."

53,000 voters doesn't seem like a lot, but that's a sizable chunk of the Nevada population.

I wrote in another thread a few weeks back about the 2010 elections where I noticed that a lot of the no-show [DEM] voters on the voting rolls at my local polling place were from addresses around our area that were either repo'd or in short sale.

I can't speak to Northern NV Democrats moving back to CA in droves, but I personally know of a few who have moved back to places where the social services are a lot more generous than they are here.

Good thing about the Southern NV Democrats has been that if they lose their jobs and homes down in Las Vegas (or just want out for whatever reason, like perhaps that three months in the summertime with temps of 116F in the shade) they don't/can't/won't stick around in Nevada, instead choosing to go straight back to where they came from in the first place: Los Angeles and San Bernardino CA.

With just about everyone in NV living paycheck-to-paycheck and as much as $200,000 upside down on their mortgage, if they lose their income they're finished here. All they can do is walk away from their 2005-vintage $400,000 McMansion in Henderson NV, driving off in their Hummer H3 on it's giant chromed spinning wheels back to Southern California where a $300,000 1961-vintage house basically means they'll have to live in some depressing and sketchy remote suburb where they'll commute over an hour each way to get to work at a cost of $4.53/gallon in that 7500 pound land whale that gets 9mpg in the stop-and-go traffic of an I-10 traffic jam.

I recently read that in SoCal home sales are again on the rise, and that how this is very good news. Yeah, I know: former Californians are moving back home and getting new sub-prime government loans on a home they'll be delinquent on just like they did the last place they fled from. Hey, and while they're at it, check out the new low LOW sub-prime rates on this new 2013 Chevy Tahoe!

12 posted on 09/24/2012 3:20:52 PM PDT by The KG9 Kid (Semper Fi)
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To: prairiebreeze
I'm always amazed by this way of thinking.....and I'm not disagreeing or disputing you btw.

They think that Republicans motivation levels and reasoning is the same as that of Democrats.

To think otherwise would - of course - be "judgmental."

13 posted on 09/24/2012 3:48:47 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: MNJohnnie
"In Florida, as of last month there are 4,627,929 registered Democrats and 4,173,177 registered Republicans, which amounts to a a 454,752-voter advantage for Democrats."

One thing that worries me is this election just might come down to the 29 electoral votes Florida has. Florida has by far the largest number of electoral votes of the undecided battleground states. I don't see how one can loose Florida and still win the election based on the current electoral map as the polls have them.

The current Rasmussen electoral map has the Kenyan at 237 predicted electoral points and Romney at 196. His last Florida poll (Sept 13th) has Florida 0=48% R=46%

The overall trend is in our favor, but the trend has not put us ahead of the game yet.... according to the polls.

14 posted on 09/24/2012 4:06:44 PM PDT by GregoTX (Federalist)
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To: LS; MNJohnnie

Tucker Carlson said the other day that 0bama has overpolled in every poll, including exit polls.


15 posted on 09/24/2012 4:13:51 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: prairiebreeze; Sarah Barracuda

“The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/327982/what-john-mclaughlin-sees-polls-right-now#


16 posted on 09/24/2012 4:18:43 PM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: reasonisfaith

Good article, thanks

I guess the tactic does work, but it never has with me. My mother drilled into me that if I didn’t vote I had no right to complain about the outcome. It’s always stuck.


17 posted on 09/24/2012 4:38:16 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (Don't be afraid to see what you see. -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: prairiebreeze

Great observation; no true citizen sits home on election day. To those who say “Anybody But Romney” I say “That Means Obama.” They may not like Romney, but for now, he’s our best shot of ejecting O. But I state clearly that the Republican Party needs a good grooming, and the Tea party has the shears. “I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”


18 posted on 09/24/2012 5:16:10 PM PDT by majormaturity
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“They are hoping that with these polls, that enough Republicans will stay home”

They have no idea what’s about to happen to them politically.

Any thinking voter that has been paying attention to 10% of the crap going on politically, will crawl across broken glass and navigate razor wire to pull the lever against this embarrassment of a national mistake.


19 posted on 09/24/2012 7:44:01 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: GregoTX

“The overall trend is in our favor, but the trend has not put us ahead of the game yet.... according to the polls.”

Which is why it is imperative to look at the sample make-up and selection methodology supporting the poll results.

In most recent polls, the outcome is skewed in Obama’s favor based on unscrupulous oversampling of Democrats and failing to take into account voter intensity/enthusiasm, and Independent voters who are increasingly uncomfortable with Dear Leader.

Romney will win in a landslide of epic proportions, IMHO.


20 posted on 09/24/2012 7:50:31 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: MNJohnnie

BTTT!


21 posted on 09/25/2012 4:14:02 PM PDT by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
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.


22 posted on 09/26/2012 10:48:10 PM PDT by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge)
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To: MNJohnnie

.


23 posted on 09/26/2012 10:53:45 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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