Posted on 09/24/2012 6:57:21 PM PDT by Ron C.
Despite all the noise created by all those media-commissioned skewed polls that appear to have President Obama leading, Mitt Romney is actually winning the presidential race as of today. The newest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows Obama 47 percent to Romney 46 percent, and shows them tied at 48 percent when leaning voters are included. The Gallup tracking poll, which is based on a sample that tends to favor Democrats by a few points, released today shows Obama leading just two percent, 48 percent to 46 percent. The QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll released today shows a Romney lead of 51 percent to 45 percent.
Polling data and analysis of voting patterns indicates that Romney is going to win most of the key swing states including the five surveyed by Purple Strategies just a few days ago. The last QStarNews analysis and projection of the electoral college covered in this column predicts Romney winning 301 electoral votes, 31 more than needed for election as president.
THIS IS AN EXCERPT!
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
I don't know why the QStarNews link 'projection of the electoral college' fails - but I'll post it later!
The drumbeat of Big Media is: THE RACE IS OVER!!!! OBAMA IS WAY AHEAD!!! HE’S UNBEATABLE!!! DON’T BOTHER TO VOTE REPUBLICANS!!! As I recall, Carter was ahead and unbeatable at this time in 1980.
I think we all need to help point FReepers to UnSkewedpolls.com - just to HELP SHINE THE LIGHT OF TRUTH on what 'Big Media' is pushing every day!!
Who knows, they just might listen to me!
RNC need to run 24/7 three ads:
1. DNC delegates booing God at their convention and adoption of gay marriage
[In FL also run ad on removal of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital from DNC platform]
2. Obama’s contrasting own words in 2008 and 2012 (same old, same old)
3. Pics of coffins coming home and ME embassy on fire with words from Obama just a “bump in the road”
If Romney is to win we must educate, emote, and inflame. Borrow a page from the DNC and our side would win. Knock down drag on fight for the undecideds.
We need to put links to this info on EVERY DAMNED LIBERAL POLL that shows up on FR!!
AND at the same time vow to do more to help defeat the idiot in the WH!
Polls conducted in a general manner across states don’t matter anymore anyway to the actual election. Only the “battlegroud” states matter: Florida, Ohio, Penn., etc.
LOL - love it!!!
Yep! I remember that quite well! I had just started my first year in College and had a “Reagan for President” bumper sticker on my car which incredibly I got heat over from the leftists. Democrats back then still supporting Carter just like they support Obama today even though both were/are unmitigated disasters as POTUS.
I think the lefties are in for a huge surprise again ala Carter. People who don’t normally vote are going to turn out in absolute droves, literally waves to get this absolute disaster out of office, while the lefties are going to do the opposite as their “shining star” doesn’t seem so bright anymore.
Not only the MSM but lately Brit Hume has chimed in calling it all but over.
From National Review about the number of voters who have dropped their dem registration between 2009 and now:
[quote]announcing that there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats – suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.
In terms of how many voters are registered with each major party, Democrats continue to hold advantages in several key swing states, but in all of those states, their advantage is considerably smaller than it was in 2008.
In Florida, as of last month there are 4,627,929 registered Democrats and 4,173,177 registered Republicans, which amounts to a a 454,752-voter advantage for Democrats. (Keep in mind, Florida has 11.5 million registered voters, so there are a lot of unaffiliated and third-party voters.)
In 2008, there were 4,800,890 registered Democrats in Florida and only 4,106,743 registered Republicans, a 694,147-voter advantage. So while the number of voters who registered with the GOP is up from four years ago, Democrats are down roughly 170,000.[/quote]
This is happening in ALL the swing states. Romney is leading by DOUBLE DIGITS among independents.
The polls using 2008 turnout models are a joke.
It's hard to be unaffected by the polls skewed for Obama. It's naturally disheartening for Republican loyalists (not implying that Hume is one although he my be). But I don't think the skewers will succeed in keeping Romney voters away from the polls, their primary objective.
My first year of college too, but I was supporting and campaigning for Carter. Wow, that defeat was the saddest day of my life. I know my errors better today.
TRUE - there is a recent poll on that which shows Romney doing well in all five of the big 'battleground' states. I'll find and post later.
But, but, the Yahoo bunch said......
Seriously, thanks for posting this Ron.
“When a Dem says Obama is ahead I say “Yep, he’s so far ahead you don’t have to worry. Heck, you could skip voting for him and he’ll be just fine. Don’t worry, be happy.”
That’s so mean! I tell all the Democrats that their vote is important and to make sure they show up on November 7th :)
Heck, the Yahoo bunch is claiming NASCAR fans prefer Obama.
Does anyone really believe that? Really?
These guys are desperate.
Obama Leads Romney Among NASCAR Fans: Poll 49%-42%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2935818/posts
I saw that. I think the yahooey’s been drinking their bathwater.
excellent
It will break against Zero, but the margin will be less than in 2012.
“Third party” astroturf will have less impact than Eugene McCarthy in 1976.
True, but there are mathematical limits to how much one can lose in the popular vote majority and still win in the electoral vote. It could be that seven or eight states, such as OH and IA, decide everything.
Thanks for your post.
I visited the site and was unable to find how the unskewing is done.
Does he apply Rasmussen’s party affiliation poll to derive the sampling?
Thanks for the info Ron, very much appreciate it!
In a two-way election, 47.9-48.4 aka 2000.
It will never be equaled or surpassed...Unless Mitt does this:
2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, NH = 270EV and loses PV by a full point 48-49.
301 is still to close for comfort. This EV number seems off. If Mitt is really 7.8 points ahead, he should win 380-420 EV.
To the contrary, Romney is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Somebody must have made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.
I knew there was a massive Tea Party Revolution happening. From what I remember the Lame Street Media kept dismissing it.
gleeaikin wrote: We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.
Many people I know, and those people I know are not going to vote for Obama, avoid POLLS like the plague. They screen their calls like a hawk. Dodging pollsters doesn't mean they are not going to vote.
Thank you for posting this! Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this? It seems to me it would make their polls routinely inaccurate, and make them look like dummies when their predictions don’t pan out. Thoughts?
Or are the media simply laying the ground work for a “he was robbed” moment. How could it have been so close without electronic voting fraud brough about by Adelson and the Koch brothers?
The battleground state polls are as skewed as any polls out there, and maybe more so. They are using 2008 data, which was an historic high for dems. Who in their right mind believes we are more democrat now than in 2008?
Don’t trust any poll, not even Rasmussen. He’s the best we have right now, but he’s using a combination of 2004 and 2008 polling data.
It's just awful that NO ONE in the 'lamestream' dares tell it like it really is!!
LOL - you've got that QUITE right!
Well Hetty, it’s SSOP for Dims to LIE about their candidates, to make them look more popular than they are. They’ve always been liars, and they still are. But, this is the first time that the depth and breadth of their lying is being exposed on a near daily basis. Trouble is, Dim-crat voters eat their lies up, and believe every skewed poll as Gospel!
You mean all over for Romney or Obama?
“These guys are desperate.”
I got that impression from Michelle throwing the Underground Railroad in there; blacks have sunk further into dependency in the past four years, and Romney is going to put them “back in chains”?
Try telling that to the winos that get a pack of cigs and a bottle of ripple for every time they vote, though. If it’s close anywhere, look for a repeat of FL 2000.
Just like the main-stream media, pollsters are not concerned with credibility so much as they're concerned with RELEVANCE.
They are being paid to push the preferred narrative. 'Gives them power.
>> The drumbeat of Big Media
It’s really the Leftwing Media.
“We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.”
HUGE. For this reason polling will never be what it once was, and the pollsters know it. Ergo, manufacture a false narrative.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.