Skip to comments.How Mitt Romney is actually defeating Barack Obama in the presidential race
Posted on 09/24/2012 6:57:21 PM PDT by Ron C.
Despite all the noise created by all those media-commissioned skewed polls that appear to have President Obama leading, Mitt Romney is actually winning the presidential race as of today. The newest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows Obama 47 percent to Romney 46 percent, and shows them tied at 48 percent when leaning voters are included. The Gallup tracking poll, which is based on a sample that tends to favor Democrats by a few points, released today shows Obama leading just two percent, 48 percent to 46 percent. The QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll released today shows a Romney lead of 51 percent to 45 percent.
Polling data and analysis of voting patterns indicates that Romney is going to win most of the key swing states including the five surveyed by Purple Strategies just a few days ago. The last QStarNews analysis and projection of the electoral college covered in this column predicts Romney winning 301 electoral votes, 31 more than needed for election as president.
THIS IS AN EXCERPT!
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
But, but, the Yahoo bunch said......
Seriously, thanks for posting this Ron.
“When a Dem says Obama is ahead I say “Yep, he’s so far ahead you don’t have to worry. Heck, you could skip voting for him and he’ll be just fine. Don’t worry, be happy.”
That’s so mean! I tell all the Democrats that their vote is important and to make sure they show up on November 7th :)
Heck, the Yahoo bunch is claiming NASCAR fans prefer Obama.
Does anyone really believe that? Really?
These guys are desperate.
Obama Leads Romney Among NASCAR Fans: Poll 49%-42%
I saw that. I think the yahooey’s been drinking their bathwater.
It will break against Zero, but the margin will be less than in 2012.
“Third party” astroturf will have less impact than Eugene McCarthy in 1976.
True, but there are mathematical limits to how much one can lose in the popular vote majority and still win in the electoral vote. It could be that seven or eight states, such as OH and IA, decide everything.
Thanks for your post.
I visited the site and was unable to find how the unskewing is done.
Does he apply Rasmussen’s party affiliation poll to derive the sampling?
Thanks for the info Ron, very much appreciate it!
In a two-way election, 47.9-48.4 aka 2000.
It will never be equaled or surpassed...Unless Mitt does this:
2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, NH = 270EV and loses PV by a full point 48-49.
301 is still to close for comfort. This EV number seems off. If Mitt is really 7.8 points ahead, he should win 380-420 EV.
To the contrary, Romney is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Somebody must have made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.
I knew there was a massive Tea Party Revolution happening. From what I remember the Lame Street Media kept dismissing it.
gleeaikin wrote: We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.
Many people I know, and those people I know are not going to vote for Obama, avoid POLLS like the plague. They screen their calls like a hawk. Dodging pollsters doesn't mean they are not going to vote.
Thank you for posting this! Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this? It seems to me it would make their polls routinely inaccurate, and make them look like dummies when their predictions don’t pan out. Thoughts?
Or are the media simply laying the ground work for a “he was robbed” moment. How could it have been so close without electronic voting fraud brough about by Adelson and the Koch brothers?
The battleground state polls are as skewed as any polls out there, and maybe more so. They are using 2008 data, which was an historic high for dems. Who in their right mind believes we are more democrat now than in 2008?
Don’t trust any poll, not even Rasmussen. He’s the best we have right now, but he’s using a combination of 2004 and 2008 polling data.