Washington Post Surveys Obama Re-election Team in Ohio, Finds Obama Leading by 8 (WaPo: O 52, R 44)

Battleground Watch ^ | 9/25/2012 | Keith Backer

[Qbert]

You have to laugh at the absurdity of polls like these as I broke down in the post below:

2008 was a best-in-a-generation advantage for Democrats

Obama’s job approval is locked below 50%

The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 3 years and it’s actually higher if you count the people so despondent they simply quit looking for a job

There isn’t one economic indicator that is positive for President

Obama and the economy always surveys as by far the #1 issue for voters (there is never even a close 2nd)

Every single survey shows Obama’s 2008 coalition is less enthusiastic in 2012 than in 2008 (especially Hispanics and the youth vote)

At the same time the GOP ground game has improved over its 2008 performance by at least 10-fold (that’s no exaggeration).

And yet polls like the latest from the Washington Post get published with a Gomer from the Andy Griffith Show feel of “well Goll-ly look how many Democrats there are, Obama must sure be popular.”  It is professionally incompetent and completely partisan advocacy to survey states or the nation this way but there isn’t a reader out there who doesn’t already know the press is in the bag for the Obama re-election team.  The partisan breakdown of the poll was D +11 for adults, D +8 for registered voters and D +7 for likely voters.  In 2008 Obama enjoyed an advantage of D +8 in Ohio (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30).  In 2004 this was a Republican advantage of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).  Not the number cruncher @numbersmuncher broke down the Ohio returns and found that the party ID in Ohio was actually D +5 on election day, making this sampling even worse. Romney leads by 1% among Independents but the Washington Post finds Team Obama in full hopey-changey frenzy and by sampling 7% more Democrats than Republicans comes out with a result that Obama leads in Ohio by 8-points, 52 to 44:

For President Percent

Barack Obama 52

Mitt Romney 44

Other/Unsure 4

[Internet Walnut]

I saw “Defeat Obama” in Northern NV.

[LS]

Hmm, if this were true why are the Republicans OVERPERFORMING in every county I've looked at so far (Hamilton, Franklin, Cayahoga, Starke) and Obama hugely underperforming in absentee ballots?

Consider Cayahoga, a Dem stronghold, Obama win by 68-30 in 2008. Absentees now showing 54-24 split---Rs down six, but Dems down 14!!!?

Or Franklin (Columbus), which Obama won by 21 points (!!) and now he is trailing in absolute numbers by 5,500 absentee ballots---and that number has increased by 1500 in the past week.

Or Hamilton (Cincy), where Obama won by 7 in 2008 but now the Rs have a 2:1 absentee advantage?

[resistance]

If Obama is so far ahead, why is he running prime time TV adds in California?

[LS]

I asked the same thing about AL and the answer was “fundraising.” Really?

[fortheDeclaration]

Romney is going to win easily.

[HapaxLegamenon]

Well, I remember 1980 (I was in the 4th Grade). The Hostages were in Iran. We had to wait in line for a block to get gas. The Evening News (yes, I watched the news when I was 10), talked about inflation, unemployment and the interest rates. The President went on TV and blamed Americans for their bad attitude and told us we should wear more sweaters. He also threaten the Soviets that if they didn't leave Afghanistan than we would let them win all the gold medals in the Olympic by default. He said in the debate that his daughter (who was about my age at the time), was afraid there will be an atomic war if he was any tougher on the Russians.

In the meantime the election was too close to call...

...until 15 minutes after the polls closed in the East.

[ChildOfThe60s]

There isn’t one economic indicator that is positive for President

Actually, I think there is one in his favor.........all those new additions to food stamps and "disability". More welfare recipients means more votes for The One.