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WaPo polls: Obama up in OH, FL (D/R/I is 37/30/30 in Ohio. D/R/I 33/32/31 in Florida)
Hotair ^ | 09/25/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 09/25/2012 12:04:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The bad news: new Washington Post polls of likely voters in Ohio and Florida show Barack Obama leading both key swing states, and outside the margin of error in Ohio. The good news? Er ... at some point, the replacement officials will get the boot from the NFL. No, seriously, the polls don't have a lot of good news, but the sample skew in Ohio might be a somewhat mitigating factor:

President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College.

Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.

All right, let's look at the samples, bearing in mind my analysis from earlier today. Among likely voters in the Ohio sample, the D/R/I is 37/30/30. That's a far cry from the midterm 36/37/28 — but it’s not that far off from 2008's 39/31/30. The question, then, is what kind of turnout should we expect in Ohio --- one that looks more like 2008 or 2010? Before you answer that, remember that the Republicans who won that midterm election in Ohio have struggled to maintain their momentum, although John Kasich appears to be rebounding a bit now.

Let’s look at a couple of other demos in Ohio. Romney actually has a one-point edge over Obama among likely-voter independents, 47/46. In 2008, Obama won them by eight points, 52/44, on his way to winning the state by five. However, Obama wins women by seventeen points while losing men by 1 for a +16 gender gap. In 2008, that was just +11 (+3 men, +8 women). If there’s a difference, it’s in that gender gap rather than independents.

Next, let’s look at Florida, where Obama only has a 4-point lead. The likely-voter D/R/I has a D+1 edge, 33/32/31. That’s right in the ballpark for Florida, which had a 37/34/29 in 2008 and 36/36/29 in 2010. Unfortunately, their link to the cross-tab functions isn’t working so it’s impossible to drill down further than this, but it shows that Romney needs to pick up his game in the Sunshine State, too.

Update: I had a typo in the 2010 exit polling in Ohio; the independent vote was 28%, not 38%.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; florida; obama; ohio; romney

1 posted on 09/25/2012 12:04:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Wherever you are: VOTE STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN!


2 posted on 09/25/2012 12:06:08 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: SeekAndFind

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/25/obama-4-in-florida-washington-post/


3 posted on 09/25/2012 12:07:24 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind
The independents will fall 2:1 for Romney.

Game over.

4 posted on 09/25/2012 12:10:03 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; SoFloFreeper
From battleground watch

"The subset of that group is “registered” voters who prefer Democrats by 6%. Until they finally get to the subset of “likely voters” who prefer Democrats by 1%. That’s an awfully be Democrat disparity to begin with that almost cleanly gets to a reasonable likely voter survey. I wish the Washington Post (or most anyone) had credibility because the switch from registered voter to likely voter in Ohio simply move the Democrat advantage down one point but here it moves it down 5-points. I sure looks like a lot of registered voters got through the Post’s filter and were polled as likely voters. "
5 posted on 09/25/2012 12:10:31 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: SeekAndFind

+7 democrap sample?

yeah right...


6 posted on 09/25/2012 12:10:40 PM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: SeekAndFind

Looks like the “war on women” ads are having a major impact on the gullible sex.


7 posted on 09/25/2012 12:11:23 PM PDT by montag813
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Ulsterman report has whitehouse insider saying they all battleground states are all close.. Good debate Romney wins, possibley even PA.


8 posted on 09/25/2012 12:11:34 PM PDT by scbison
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To: SeekAndFind

Whatever. The polls showing Romney behind are doing us a FAVOR because we are a stubborn bunch, at least my family is and we will be damned and determined to NOT go quietly.

I ask myself, who do I know in Ohio...? Who do I know in Florida? Who do my friends and family know? I think we should regard these polls as TRUTH and act accordingly. Even if they are skewed,,just think,,,if we are able to overcome the bias,,we have won! If we poo-poo and disregard the gift of information being handed to us, we are inviting disaster. ... We need to act like R/R is behind 10 points and don’t believe anything that says differently. Be stubborn! Be strong! Do NOT get discouraged! I am making calls right now


9 posted on 09/25/2012 12:12:26 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: SeekAndFind

These people are just too much, so much BS.


10 posted on 09/25/2012 12:12:26 PM PDT by Internet Walnut
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To: SeekAndFind
the fact that obama has numbers above 20% tells me that the idiots in this country still have not caught on how stupid they were back in 2008 and that these idiots go and vote based on their ignorance and them listening to the MSM instead of what they see and hear around them
11 posted on 09/25/2012 12:13:58 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SeekAndFind

I regret the fact I have only 2 fists, b/c I’d like to punch half of this country’s “citizens” in the face.


12 posted on 09/25/2012 12:14:18 PM PDT by HailReagan78
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To: SeekAndFind

Voted for Romney/Ryan today. God Bless America!


13 posted on 09/25/2012 12:16:30 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (God Bless America!)
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To: SeekAndFind

When was this WaPO poll actually taken ?


14 posted on 09/25/2012 12:17:56 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: austinaero
same here and I;m in FL.

How on earth can they put obama so close is beyond me as I have not seen one yard sign , hardly know anyone who will vote for him and even the stickers on cars are about 2 a week .

The fact I see this tells me I have to get out to more people and convince them to not vote for this idiot and that the media is ling to them and you'd be surprised even as a conservative how many have no clue about the issues, fast and furious, don;t know the debt., not meeting world leaders, lying about the attacks, him going to Vegas.

That is just recent, the fact the media is not telling the voters what the facts are is making me and my family to inform more folks and that means more of a dog walk tonight to meet more people and get the conversation on to the election.

15 posted on 09/25/2012 12:18:28 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SeekAndFind

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2936121/posts


16 posted on 09/25/2012 12:28:11 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: SeekAndFind
Romney's campaign adviser says even though the WaPO poll says one thing, their internals are saying another.....

Looks like the same people who are refs officiating the lockout NFL games are the same one's who are taking the polls for the Democrats.
17 posted on 09/25/2012 12:30:50 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: manc

I live in FL, Tampa-area...a 60% GOP county.. and I agree.. In 2008, i saw a lot of Obama bumper stickers in my town, and I pretty much knew he was gonna win...

This time around, I see virtually NO Obama stickers...a LOT of anti-Obama stickers, and a smattering of Romney/Ryan stickers.. I think basically , most people arent that enthusiastic about Mitt, but are VERY enthusiastic about voting the commie out. Thats whats going on with these polls. Obama is at his max support right now.


18 posted on 09/25/2012 12:38:09 PM PDT by HailReagan78
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To: SeekAndFind

I have recalculated this Washington Post Ohio poll based on 35% R, 35% D, and 30 % I which is going to be the more realistic party ID breakdown on November 6 2012. The result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%...

I have this “Poll Adjustment Calculator” that can re-calculate the biased media polls with a more realistic party breakdown...


19 posted on 09/25/2012 12:38:52 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: montag813

They are having an impact on the single women who always vote democrat in much larger number than they vote Republican. The question is would this group show up in large number on elections day the same they did in 2008? I doubt it very much...


20 posted on 09/25/2012 12:38:59 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: HailReagan78

As long as Romney has a decent debate, he should be able to also show why to vote FOR him, not just why to vote AGAINST Obama.

That is sorely needed here and is likely will be in the cards soon.


21 posted on 09/25/2012 12:49:43 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Conservative12345

RE: The result is Obama 48.5%, Romney 47.7%...

Well, looks like any which way you look at it, Romney is LOSING in both Ohio and Florida. If he loses both states, we’ll have to bear with a second Obama term and all the bad things that will definitely come our way...


22 posted on 09/25/2012 12:54:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: American Constitutionalist
Those personal obeservations are much more accurate than any media biased polls. Thank you very much for sharing...
23 posted on 09/25/2012 12:55:04 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: American Constitutionalist

RE: When was this WaPO poll actually taken ?

___________________

This is their MOST RECENT POLL. See here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/washington-post-poll-obama-lead-in-ohio-edge-in-fla-narrow-romneys-path-to-victory/2012/09/25/aba76e22-068c-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_story.html?hpid=z1


24 posted on 09/25/2012 12:57:17 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh, it’s from the COMpost.


25 posted on 09/25/2012 1:03:15 PM PDT by Internet Walnut
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To: SeekAndFind

Party Affiliation (Gallup)

R: 27

I: 36

D: 35

With Independent “Leaners”

R: 42

D: 51

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx


26 posted on 09/25/2012 1:07:28 PM PDT by IslandLad
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To: SeekAndFind

How can he possibly be leading in Ohio? The economy there is not so good. Why would they vote for Obama? And the article states that the Republicans who won in 2010 are struggling, which means to me that incumbents may not be faring so well in that state.


27 posted on 09/25/2012 1:19:28 PM PDT by murron (Proud Mom of a Marine Vet)
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To: SeekAndFind
When you do an accurate poll, or a corrected poll as I did, and the incumbent is at 48.5% and separated from the challenger by 0.8% point then no he is not winning anything. At best he is tied... Now if you allocate the undecided 2:1 to the challenger then Romney wins this Ohio poll...

I am glad that our side is pushing hard against this final strategy of demoralization via very biased poll, not only on the conservative blogs and radio but it is also coming from top Republican poll experts and even from the Romney campaign.

Remember that every strategy Obama and his media used against Romney have failed badly (Bain Capital, Obama tax returns, etc...)... All what they have left now is the strategy of demoralizing the Republican/Conservative base via very biased polls with either oversampling democrats and or under sampling Republicans and Independents from their actual number on elections day... Do not fall for it...

28 posted on 09/25/2012 1:30:35 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney needs to say " In this dangerous world and world instability, why on Earth would Obama and his people consider the " Defense Budget " as a deficit that needs to be cut ? "
29 posted on 09/25/2012 1:54:22 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: HailReagan78

I regret the fact I have only 2 fists, b/c I’d like to punch half of this country’s “citizens” in the face.

Me too. I’ve often said that people who voted for obongo and plan to again deserve a beating.


30 posted on 09/25/2012 3:17:50 PM PDT by hdbc (1/20/13 End of an Error.)
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To: SeekAndFind

No, the important thing is to push Obama under 50. Undecideds break disportionately for the challenger.

Obama and his MSM handmaidens are rigging the polls to push early D voting, to hurt GOP morale and fundraising, and to hurt down-ballot GOP races.


31 posted on 09/25/2012 3:20:47 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: rwfromkansas

Romney has to demand that Barry the Kenyan have to speak without a teleprompter. I would also suggest that neither one of them know what the damn question is in advance. As long as they know what’s coming, it aint a debate, it’s a TV game show and nothing else. I would demand that Fox News moderate at least one of the debates, or the ubber liberal CNN and the rest of the alphabet channels will be in the tank for the Kenyan. You can see this coming a mile off. Who will be the MSNBC moderate, the drooling Chris Matthews or pancake face Lawrence O’Donnel? No matter how well Romney does Barry the big-eared Kenyan will be called the winner.


32 posted on 09/25/2012 4:48:28 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: IslandLad

Right after the DNC, so not reasonable. The August one is more reasonable. I do think the Dems have an advantage, probably +1-+3 max.


33 posted on 09/25/2012 6:15:11 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: HailReagan78

have to ask you this.

Recently in the last two weeks we’ve seen here in this very republican county , nearly 70%, hell even if the non party and Dems are combined then republicans still outnumber them.

But anyway, are you seeing more Broward, Palm beach license plates in your area?

I ask this because we have, along wiht more than usual Ga PLATES AND THEN WE REMEMBER THIS.http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/some-georgians-suspected-of-voting-twice/nJRks/.

Also true the vote has done some digging and looked at our roles and found that after looking at NY voting rolls, well 10% of them they have found more from NY voting here and there.

We must have over 250,000 votes which are frauds here in our state and this has ot be stoped right now.

If someone from GA comes here and uses a friends address like they did in 2008 then vote here whilst voting up in GA then Rick Scott has got to stop this NOW.

On the night of the election, McCain won our state 53% to 47% but they added early voting and found obama won.

There is no need to be voting right now and I fear the left yet again are voting every day, in different places.


34 posted on 09/26/2012 7:07:08 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: manc

Sorry I missed this..I’m gonna keep an eye out for these plates in my area..

We can never underestimate how far the commies will go to screw America.


35 posted on 09/28/2012 9:54:02 AM PDT by HailReagan78
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