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Coming very soon: Spring of Persia
The Pioneer ^ | Wednesday, September 26, 2012 | Ashok K. Mehta

Posted on 09/25/2012 12:47:50 PM PDT by Jyotishi

Israeli intelligence believes that March 2013 will be the decisive moment when Israel has to act jointly with the US against Iran, as a de-coupled attack is unlikely to derail Tehran's nuclear programme

The mood at the World Summit on Counter-terrorism at Herzliya, Tel Aviv, this month was sombre. Mixed feelings about the Arab Spring —which many called an ‘uprising’ — and what to do about Iran were dominant. While placards on the streets in Tel Aviv read: “Don’t Bomb. Talk”, discussions on ‘deciding on the bomb or bombing’ and ‘preparing for The Day After were plentiful’.

The regional scene was seen as very messy with the Arab Spring having been arrested in Bahrain. After Afghanistan and Iraq, a declining US was perceived exhausted and ruing the strategic error of not doing a pre-emptive on Iran instead of invading Iraq. After events in Iraq, Egypt and now Syria, Russia appeared the big loser. Turkey was confronted by a new set of problems with all its neighbours including Israel and especially Syria. Egypt, Libya and Yemen, nursing the Arab Spring hangover were now stung by  the fallout of the anti-Islamic film.

The region had been hit economically too: Tourism evaporated in Egypt; Jordan was burdened with Syrian refugees; and Lebanon, Palestine and Gaza barely managing to survive. Syria was the new low-signature enemy. The ungoverned spaces in Sinai where the Bedouin were calling the shots posed a new challenge to Israel as well as Egypt. For Israel, the 1979 Treaty with Egypt was critical; and fortunately holding. Despite political reforms, Jordan could unravel any time, though not everyone agreed on this. The new concern and perhaps exaggerated was the fear of a Caliphate of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Sitting unfazed in this troubled neighbourhood was tiny Israel, coveting  its strategic depth through special relations with the US. A robust deterrence and sound intelligence had enabled Israel to eliminate terrorism and end suicide killings at home. Hezbollah had not fired a single rocket from its armoury of 70,000 indirect weapons since 2006. Although Hamas in Gaza had been contained, Grad rockets continued to strike South Israel, skirting the expensive Iron Dome anti-missile defences.

Uppermost in Israeli minds is a nuclear Iran and the enlarged threat that an emboldened Hezbollah and others jihadi outfits would pose to the region. Iranian leaders have called Israel “a filthy bacteria”, “a cancerous tumour” and “a zionist black stain that must and will be removed”. The current assessment is that Iran’s 10,000 centrifuges have yielded 20 per cent enriched uranium to fuel five to six bombs. Apparently the decision to make the bomb which entails two more steps — bomb grade enrichment of uranium and weaponisation — has not been made. Once the go-ahead is given, Iran will take a year to possess the bomb. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that it could be only six to seven months.

P5+1 talks and sanctions have evidently not worked; International Atomic Energy

Agency director-general Yukiya Amano along with the 35-member Board censured Iran for defying demands to curb uranium enrichment and halt its secret programme of weaponisation. One of Israel’s ‘red lines’ is Iran’s acquisition of bomb-grade uranium — Tehran’s point of entry into the ‘immunity zone’ disabling which would be beyond Israel’s operational capability.

The Israelis are asking whether it is wise to trust US intelligence on Iran’s nuclear capability before it reaches immunity zone. Over the years, Mossad has successfully penetrated Iran’s nuclear programme, delaying and disrupting it. The Stuxnet virus which attacked the centrifuge rods altered their speed of spinning resulting in physical collapse. The Stuxnet was injected following 1000 man years of work and has caused cost and time overruns of uranium enrichment. While anonymity prevails over the ownership of the operation, ambiguity reigns over Israel’s own nuclear capability which is its  ultimate deterrent. No one ever talks about it.

Israeli intelligence estimates that the Spring of 2013 will be the decisive moment when Israel will have to act as well as ensure that the action is a joint US-Israeli operation, as a de-coupled attack was unlikely to decisively degrade Iran’s nuclear programme. Both the Americans and the Israelis have wargamed the offensive and the consequences of the operation. Israeli experts are advocating ways and means to ensure that the US is forced to act on time though at present Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has ruled out defining ‘red lines’ or ‘deadlines’. She says there is still time for negotiations.

Later this month, for the first time in the history of US-Israel relations, a visiting Israeli Prime Minister will not meet the US President ostensibly due to the latter’s pre-occupation with the election While President Obama has said the US will not let Iran acquire a nuclear weapon, Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has asserted he will not permit Tehran to achieve the capability to produce a bomb. Mr Obama does not want to make any commitment on Iran till after the election.

Other options are being weighed. For instance, attacking the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its assets, instead of nuclear facilities, and further empowering the Iranian Resistance which presumably provided intelligence about the collapse of centrifuge rods. These force multipliers will not stop an Iranian bomb which will prompt Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to follow suit.

Israel’s fall-back position is the US. It is banking on Washington, DC  to act and only if it were not to, Israel would go it alone. Surprisingly, retired Generals are less vocal and vitriolic about Iran’s bomb than politicians, especially Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak. Former Military Chief Lt Gen Gabi Ashkenzai said that the Prime Minister and Defence Minister were more keen to wage war than the military and that coordination of expectations between politicians and military was critical to manage results.

Last week, military chief Lt Gen Benny Gantz tested the armed forces’ competence and readiness in the event of war resulting from Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons and Iran’s nuclear buildup. Iran’s top generals have said their response would be immediate and unstoppable —one of them even threatening a pre-emptive.

One of the immediate consequences of a nuclear Iran is the likelihood of Pakistan deploying nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia on the latter’s request. Going beyond extended deterrence, this would give Pakistan a second strike capability and be hugely popular in protecting the Holy Land. There is a precedence: The US had stationed nuclear weapons in Turkey and Germany.

My assessment is that Israeli bluster is diminishing. As for the Iranian bomb, it will make the North Korean bomb kid stuff.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: egypt; fff; iran; israel; mideast; nuclear; nuttybuddies; obama; russia; syria; terrorism; waronterror

1 posted on 09/25/2012 12:47:54 PM PDT by Jyotishi
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To: Jyotishi

Maybe it would be more appropriate to talk to Tehran, and bomb DC.

Kinda hard to pinpoint the main antisemites between the two.


2 posted on 09/25/2012 12:50:58 PM PDT by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (I will fear no muslim))
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To: Hardraade

And don’t miss the blockbuster sequel: “Global Sharia Spring”


3 posted on 09/25/2012 12:55:04 PM PDT by circlecity
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To: Jyotishi

At least President Romney will handle the situation confronting Iran.


4 posted on 09/25/2012 1:02:59 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Jyotishi

“Arab Spring”, my rearend.

It’s the prophesied ***muslim caliphate*** engulfing the ME; Europe is next, the rest of the West and the US aren’t too many years away.

We’re so infiltrated and compromised now, that a wholesale deportation and/or killing of all muslims is the only option remaining. If the muzzie-In-Chief gets 4 more years, that’s it. We’re beyond mere toast; we’re burnt muffins.

The asymmetrical warfare of American ‘soft targets’ has already begun; watch for it to ratchet-up significantly when Israel hits Iran, the sleeper terrorists get their *go* orders, and the world explodes. SHTF.

I hope (and pray) that I’m wrong.


5 posted on 09/25/2012 1:05:20 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office!)
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To: Jyotishi
Buh-bye, Mahmoud!
6 posted on 09/25/2012 1:06:37 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)
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To: Jyotishi

For me, its clear that war is coming regardless of who is president. Iran is determined to go to war and we will be forced to respond whether O or Romney or even a Ron Paul is in the White House.

So the only question is, who is better suited to lead during a very nasty war with an unpredictable outcome.

Given the choices, its an easy choice. It must be Romney.


7 posted on 09/25/2012 1:14:18 PM PDT by marron
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To: carriage_hill

> If the muzzie-In-Chief gets 4 more years, that’s it. We’re
> beyond mere toast; we’re burnt muffins.

Hussein may well get another term in office considering that many conservatives do not plan to vote for Romney/Ryan.


8 posted on 09/25/2012 1:15:23 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: Jyotishi

Nutjob made it real clear again in his address to the UN this week that he intends to wipe Israel off the map. You have to take that seriously.


9 posted on 09/25/2012 1:16:53 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Jyotishi
I've run into quite a troubling number of them, right here. Not voting or voting down-ticket only, is a sure vote for ∅bummer&Co.
10 posted on 09/25/2012 1:24:56 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office!)
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To: Jyotishi
Contact your local GOP and tell them NOT to run thousands of individual ads for individual candidates...

I am sure every single one of them promises to “fight for me” and has a lovely family...But i cant remember all their names OR figure out which ones are democraps acting like they are republicans in the commercial (OMG you should see lying Kathy Hochul in Western NY)

we need to POOL ALL ADVERTISING and just say “Had Enough of Obama and Democrats Tax and Spend - this year vote Republican across the board”

I cant remember all the names of the local GOP candidates and I really don't care. All I want to know is if they have an R at the end of their name.

Also the democraps are running confusing ads claiming they are republicans and against Obama- that's fine - we like that message- but then they ask you to vote for them BY NAME and I cannot remember them all but I WILL remember how everyone is running against Obama

So... just VOTE GOP or keep enabling Obama!

11 posted on 09/25/2012 1:32:48 PM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: Jyotishi
...bomb-grade uranium...

Maybe the mullahs will have a little critical geometry "accident." Sure would make a mess.

12 posted on 09/25/2012 1:34:38 PM PDT by stboz
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To: Jyotishi

No doubt the “flexibility” after the election Obama whispered to Putin (overheard to his dismay on microphones) includes feeding our ally Israel to the wolves.

There is no doubt this is on his list

1) Disown Israel, allowing the muslim zombie horde to devour them
2) Unilaterally disarm the US, so our enemies can be confident in attacking us
3) Redistribute the income in the US, and devour the rich in the US


13 posted on 09/25/2012 2:07:46 PM PDT by BereanBrain
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To: BereanBrain

Allow me to add an item to your list:

4) Flood the bullion market with fake gold bars to force people to depend on currency fast becoming worthless.

10 More Tungsten-Filled Gold Bars Discovered In Manhattan

http://www.silverdoctors.com/10-more-tungsten-filled-gold-bars-discovered-in-manhattan/


14 posted on 09/25/2012 2:15:09 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: Jyotishi
Israel’s fall-back position is the US. It is banking on Washington, DC to act and only if it were not to, Israel would go it alone.

In other words, it's the same playbook as the Iraq War: paint the enemy as a threat to "everyone" to get the Americans to do all the fightin' and dyin', so Israel won't have to.

This is idiocy. If Israel is threatened by Iran, then Israel should do its own dirty work. It's got the 5th-largest armed forces in the world; if it wants a war with Iran, it can start one on its own. The US is still busy in Afghanistan, where, by the way, Israel offered no help.


15 posted on 09/25/2012 3:17:29 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: canuck_conservative

> ...Israel should do its own dirty work. It’s got the 5th-largest armed forces in the world...

Your point is taken, but a detail:

Global Firepower - 2012 World Military Strength Ranking

1 United States
2 Russia
3 China
4 India
5 United Kingdom
6 Turkey
7 South Korea
8 France
9 Japan
10 Israel
...

http://www.globalfirepower.com/


16 posted on 09/25/2012 3:35:38 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: carriage_hill
“Arab Spring”, my rearend.

When you've got Arab Spring in your hand it's like taking a crap all throughout the land.

Arab Spring: it's the soap that will turn your smile upside brown.

17 posted on 09/25/2012 3:39:49 PM PDT by Sirius Lee (Nuke Mecca.)
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To: Sirius Lee

Am I correct in saying that Persians aren’t Arabs? Or is it that they aren’t muslims? Or neither?

If either is so, then a Persian Spring would be a good thing, if it rid the world of (either/both) of them.


18 posted on 09/25/2012 3:49:20 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Harry Reid [PERVERT-NV] has Vickie-the-goat in lingerie & stiletto heels, tied-up in his office!)
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To: carriage_hill
Am I correct in saying that Persians aren’t Arabs?

You are indeed. It's a shame, this whole Iran business. Persians are some of the best people you can meet. And the women are hot! But just as Germans got caught up behind the insanity and evil of one man 70 years ago, 26 million of the 40 million got behind Ahmadinnerjackhole, and unless the silent majority rise up and kill him - yes secret service or U.N. cops or whomever is trolling the site, I am calling for the death of Iran's fascist pig of a leader, it will be up to Israel to gobsmack their errant ways.

The Arabs are useless 13th century pigs, but most Persians are decent human beings.

19 posted on 09/25/2012 4:00:35 PM PDT by Sirius Lee (Nuke Mecca.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Jyotishi.


20 posted on 09/25/2012 6:02:04 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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