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Morning Jay: Are the Polls Tilted Toward Obama?
Weekly Standard ^

Posted on 09/26/2012 5:44:31 AM PDT by Perdogg

Republicans, by and large, are frustrated with recent polls of the presidential election because they think Democrats are being oversampled. Many pollsters respond by saying that “weighing” the polls for partisan identification creates its own problems and might end up skewing the polls in the wrong direction.

I am not in favor of partisan weighing, per se, although some polls like the Rasmussen poll do it in a sensible and nuanced way. So, I think the pollsters are offering a false choice between weighing versus non-weighing.

Furthermore, a lack of weighing creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats' standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972. If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another.

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: riggedpolls

1 posted on 09/26/2012 5:44:36 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Bear, woods.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 5:45:23 AM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: Ravi; LS; SoFloFreeper

ping


3 posted on 09/26/2012 5:46:08 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: ILS21R

Pope, Catholic.


4 posted on 09/26/2012 5:49:29 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit; Wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.)
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To: Perdogg

“Morning Jay: Are the Polls Tilted Toward Obama?”

GEE, YA THINK?


5 posted on 09/26/2012 5:49:37 AM PDT by V_TWIN (obama=where there's smoke, there's mirrors)
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To: Perdogg

Like EVERYTHING the left does, this too will backfire against there agenda in the end.

Skewed polling at this point only makes us work harder, and it makes leftists complacent.

There’s the good side to the notion of always campaigning as if you are 10 points behind.


6 posted on 09/26/2012 5:50:07 AM PDT by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: Perdogg

“will likely correct themselves at some point or another.”

I have my doubts. I think this time they are so invested in Obama’s reelection they cannot come clean.

On Nov. 7 we will wake up to either the most phenomenal case of fraud in polling history-—and a Romney victory-—or the fact that there are indeed 7-15% more Democrats in America (or, more unbelievably still, that Rs voted for Obama).


7 posted on 09/26/2012 5:50:53 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS; Ravi; SoFloFreeper
Remember this for future reference, according to Dick Morris, Ras uses a +2.5 Dem model.
8 posted on 09/26/2012 5:51:10 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

The polling agencies probably have been flooded with funds in effect to favor Obama, whatever it takes from gold to lead the Obama machine and its puppetmasters will try to brainwash America the futility of opposing Islamic control over America.


9 posted on 09/26/2012 5:52:23 AM PDT by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
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To: Perdogg

“Dick Morris, Ras uses a +2.5 Dem model.”

But can we trust/believe Dick Morris?


10 posted on 09/26/2012 5:53:41 AM PDT by V_TWIN (obama=where there's smoke, there's mirrors)
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To: Perdogg
water.. wet
night.. dark
....

11 posted on 09/26/2012 5:53:56 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (WA DC E$tabli$hment; DNC/RNC/Unionists...Brazilian saying: "$@me Old $hit; w/ different flie$" :^)
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To: Perdogg

The MSM and Dems are using the polls for cover.

If Obama wins, the polls showing Obama even or ahead were correct and the supposed oversampling of Dems becomes irrelevant.

If Romney wins, shock and surprise, a shellacking (remember 2010?), where did Team Obama go wrong? Recounts. The election was fixed, rigged. Too many dead Republicans voted. Dems were intimidated and kept away from the ballot boxes. Wahhhhhh, Waaaaaaaahhhh

[The purpose of the oversampling is a propagandist attempt to sway voters toward the ‘winning’ candidate bandwagon.]

==

Two decades ago, when I didn’t have cable, I noticed the network news programs frequently headlined polls (that they commissioned) as one of the major news stories. Slow news day? Commission a poll. So what if poll content can be written in such a manner that produces a desired result.

If Romney-Ryan do win in a landslide of Reagan proportions, it could very well signify that MSM have lost much of their influence on the general public.


12 posted on 09/26/2012 5:58:17 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Perdogg

This is an excellent, cool-headed analysis.


13 posted on 09/26/2012 5:59:33 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Bloody Sam Roberts; Perdogg

Is a frog’s arse water-tight? (from “Gung-Ho” with Michael Keaton)


14 posted on 09/26/2012 6:01:39 AM PDT by Mich Patriot (BLACK is the new "transparent")
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To: V_TWIN
Morris sees the same bleak future for America that we do if Obama wins. I am certain he wants R/R to be successful and is doing all he can to make that happen.
15 posted on 09/26/2012 6:04:48 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: TomGuy

The MSM are using the polls to discourage Romney voters and help the Dems raise money and inhibit GOP fund raising efforts. Contributors want to back a winner. They don’t want to send money to a sure loser.


16 posted on 09/26/2012 6:09:59 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Perdogg

In 2008 Obama won independents 52-44.


17 posted on 09/26/2012 6:12:24 AM PDT by kabar
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To: LS

On Nov. 7 we will wake up to either the most phenomenal case of fraud in polling history-—and a Romney victory-—or the fact that there are indeed 7-15% more Democrats in America (or, more unbelievably still, that Rs voted for Obama).
///
totally agree.
...i think it will be the first case.
but, there is a third case, more likely than the second.
most phenomenal case of voter fraud in US history.
...it is amazing to me, how much more patriotic democrats are, registering and voting is much higher percents,
than Republicans. sometimes, more than 100%...
-
if the polls match that result, most people will accept it.


18 posted on 09/26/2012 6:15:14 AM PDT by Elendur (It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: WashingtonSource
This is an excellent, cool-headed analysis.

Jay Cost does by far the best poll analysis. He's a conservative, but can analyze objectively. I think a lot of the rhetoric on our side about Romney actually being up 10 and what not, the unskewed polls site, is a bit overblown the OTHER way.

19 posted on 09/26/2012 6:38:57 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Perdogg

Oversampling, too much of it.


20 posted on 09/26/2012 7:47:51 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: Elendur

I still say that there will be more discouraged or angry Dems. Discouraged ones will stay home and the angry ones could be the new generation of Reagan Dems, but now known as Romney Dems and vote for Mitt.


21 posted on 09/26/2012 7:50:15 AM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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