Skip to comments.Morning Jay: Are the Polls Tilted Toward Obama?
Posted on 09/26/2012 5:44:31 AM PDT by Perdogg
Republicans, by and large, are frustrated with recent polls of the presidential election because they think Democrats are being oversampled. Many pollsters respond by saying that weighing the polls for partisan identification creates its own problems and might end up skewing the polls in the wrong direction.
I am not in favor of partisan weighing, per se, although some polls like the Rasmussen poll do it in a sensible and nuanced way. So, I think the pollsters are offering a false choice between weighing versus non-weighing.
Furthermore, a lack of weighing creates its own problems, which many pollsters often fail to acknowledge. Specifically, many polls have, in my judgment, overestimated the Democrats' standing right now. I base this conclusion not on a secret, black box statistical methodology or some crystal ball, but rather on a read of American electoral history going back to 1972. If I am right, then some of the polls are giving a false sense of the true state of the race, and will likely correct themselves at some point or another.
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“Morning Jay: Are the Polls Tilted Toward Obama?”
GEE, YA THINK?
Like EVERYTHING the left does, this too will backfire against there agenda in the end.
Skewed polling at this point only makes us work harder, and it makes leftists complacent.
There’s the good side to the notion of always campaigning as if you are 10 points behind.
“will likely correct themselves at some point or another.”
I have my doubts. I think this time they are so invested in Obama’s reelection they cannot come clean.
On Nov. 7 we will wake up to either the most phenomenal case of fraud in polling history-—and a Romney victory-—or the fact that there are indeed 7-15% more Democrats in America (or, more unbelievably still, that Rs voted for Obama).
The polling agencies probably have been flooded with funds in effect to favor Obama, whatever it takes from gold to lead the Obama machine and its puppetmasters will try to brainwash America the futility of opposing Islamic control over America.
“Dick Morris, Ras uses a +2.5 Dem model.”
But can we trust/believe Dick Morris?
The MSM and Dems are using the polls for cover.
If Obama wins, the polls showing Obama even or ahead were correct and the supposed oversampling of Dems becomes irrelevant.
If Romney wins, shock and surprise, a shellacking (remember 2010?), where did Team Obama go wrong? Recounts. The election was fixed, rigged. Too many dead Republicans voted. Dems were intimidated and kept away from the ballot boxes. Wahhhhhh, Waaaaaaaahhhh
[The purpose of the oversampling is a propagandist attempt to sway voters toward the ‘winning’ candidate bandwagon.]
Two decades ago, when I didn’t have cable, I noticed the network news programs frequently headlined polls (that they commissioned) as one of the major news stories. Slow news day? Commission a poll. So what if poll content can be written in such a manner that produces a desired result.
If Romney-Ryan do win in a landslide of Reagan proportions, it could very well signify that MSM have lost much of their influence on the general public.
This is an excellent, cool-headed analysis.
Is a frog’s arse water-tight? (from “Gung-Ho” with Michael Keaton)
The MSM are using the polls to discourage Romney voters and help the Dems raise money and inhibit GOP fund raising efforts. Contributors want to back a winner. They don’t want to send money to a sure loser.
In 2008 Obama won independents 52-44.
On Nov. 7 we will wake up to either the most phenomenal case of fraud in polling history-and a Romney victory-or the fact that there are indeed 7-15% more Democrats in America (or, more unbelievably still, that Rs voted for Obama).
...i think it will be the first case.
but, there is a third case, more likely than the second.
most phenomenal case of voter fraud in US history.
...it is amazing to me, how much more patriotic democrats are, registering and voting is much higher percents,
than Republicans. sometimes, more than 100%...
if the polls match that result, most people will accept it.
Jay Cost does by far the best poll analysis. He's a conservative, but can analyze objectively. I think a lot of the rhetoric on our side about Romney actually being up 10 and what not, the unskewed polls site, is a bit overblown the OTHER way.
Oversampling, too much of it.
I still say that there will be more discouraged or angry Dems. Discouraged ones will stay home and the angry ones could be the new generation of Reagan Dems, but now known as Romney Dems and vote for Mitt.