Skip to comments.This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008
Posted on 09/26/2012 7:00:02 AM PDT by nhwingut
This morning, surveys from the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac puts Obama ahead by 10 in Ohio, up by 12 in Pennsylvania, and up by 9 in Florida.
Since the issue of whether the party ID within polling samples is realistic seems to be the issue of the week, lets take a look at how these samples stack up to the 2008 exit polls.
Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008.
Over in the Weekly Standard, Jay Cost looks at recent Ohio polls and finds Gravis, Washington Post, and Fox basically see a replay of 2008 while Rasmussen and the Purple Poll see roughly something in between 2004 and 2008. They envision Democrat turnout being on par with last cycle or even better and this surge of Democratic enthusiasm comes at the same time the president has lost considerable ground among independents. Possible? I suppose, but again, why?
Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Somehow a D+7 split has turned into D+11 split, and Republicans share of the electorate is nine percentage points less than they were four years ago.
Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
Each partys share only shifts a few percentage points, but the overall split goes from D+3 to D+9.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I highly doubt this.
The Criminal Organizers Formerly Known As ACORN cannot register enough dead voters to overcome the tsunami headed their way.
Seriously doubt it. Unskewedpolls.com has Romney up an average of 7.8%!!!!
I am not as confident as some; but this poll is BS. The presence of CBS and Quinnipiac tells us all we need to know.
The truth is in between. A belief that Barack Obama will only get the pre 2008 black vote is unfounded. They have three or more black heroes, Obama, Michelle, and Holder to vote for. They are hearing about chains, slavery and underground railroads. Blacks respond en masse to that stuff.
I know Freepers will chime in about what they hear from the black community. Despite those reports, blacks see it as their racial duty to vote for Obama.
AND the democrats will engage in even more racial provocation.
Getting a bit comical, no?
Especially if, and I haven’t seen this in any of these reports, you include the 2010 turnout numbers.
Another problem is that Kasich improved things in Ohio, and apparently the auto bailout had some effect there. It doesn’t look like any Obama states like Michigan are swinging.
Don’t get me wrong I believe Obama should lose in a landslide, and IF people like Romney in the debates that should make a big difference. However the eternal realist in me tells me Romney is out of practice, and debating Obama is a touchy proposition.
I think this race will be way closer than it should be. Hope I’m wrong.
Personally, I don't think demoralization by poll data works very well on our side. In 2008 those of us who were demoralized had it done to us by the man at the top of the ticket and (for some) acceptance of the lie that Obama could not really be as bad as it seemed.
If you saw Ralph Reid on Gretas show Monday night, he stated there were 17.1 million Evangelical Christians that either didnt register to vote in 2008 or didnt show up to the polls.
17.1 million potential votes for the GOP combined with lower turnout from Obamazombies it is going to be a blowout for Team R & R.
I’ll be shocked if Barry gets the 2004 turnout.
The black voters are not the issue for Obama. It is his “White Voters” from 2008 and in particular the young white voters age 18-30 who are much less energized in 2012 than in 2008...
He couldn't get a TV show?
Instead of using 2004 or 2008 demographics, why don’t they use 2010?
On what planet is this possible???? My gawd the propaganda machines from the old eastern block would be so proud!!
Accurate or not, it comprised the entire political 10 sec blurb on our local AM radio station at the top of the hour.
I have to admit it is disconcerting, which is its intent.
See Romney winning in electoral college. This is the reason why the MSM is fighting so hard. Right now Obama is losing and won’t be re-elected. http://www.redstate.com/jamesm/2012/09/24/barack-obamas-is-fighting-against-mitt-romney-and-the-electoral-college-and-losing/
There are no poll manipulations going on in this election. Not a single one.
Judging from facebook it’s only the hardest of the hardcore lefties that even show an inclination to vote for Obama...and most of that is just standard hatred against any Republican.
On the other hand soft lefties (i.e. independents) don’t seem to have near the enthusiasm. They’re feeling a snookered and sheepish.
And on the third hand, nearly every Republican or anyone that leans Republican is very active or very vocal.
Agreed but I’m very sure Dick Morris and others are factoring in a lower black turnout as well.
Faux News, quickly becoming another PMSNBC, has been promoting this bogus poll all morning.
Wishful thinking and lies won’t make it so.Crow will be served on 11-6-2012.
And chime in, I shall.
There's no doubt that blacks, on average, are as committed to the Democrat party as they are to their own families, but what you may be missing, is the element of enthusiasm. It's just not there this time around.
Drive through any black neighborhood and look for Obama bumper stickers, yard signs, or any other displays. You'll find precious few. That's because most blacks have become demoralized during Obama's tenure. They've been hurt worse by his economic policies than any other racial demographic. And they know it.
Add to that, the fact that Obama has given off unmistakeable signs of being a weak poofter who's 'all hat and no cattle', and he's a HUGE disappointment to most blacks.
When he should have been taking command of the economy he claims George Bush devastated, he stood around acting like there was nothing he could do to change it. Well, that's not why they elected him. He was supposed to go to Washington and create a completely new paradigm. Instead, he used the power of his office to reinforce every ridge and barrier that blacks have been struggling against for decades.
In short, Obama walks and talks like the typical mack daddy street hustler that blacks are all too familiar with. Mark my words. Black voter turn-out this November is going to be far weaker than most people think it's going to be.
You mean Obama didn’t follow through on paying off that woman’s car loan and mortgage for her?
Indeed. I would posit that these skewed polls are having the exact reverse effect of what's intended.
Think about it for a moment. If you're a member of one of Obama's core constituencies, you've suffered more than other Americans during his tenure. You're demoralized and disillusioned. You're hurting too bad even think about what you'll be doing on November 6th. How do suppose such a person feels, hearing such rosy predictions about Obama's re-election chances?
Personally, I think such rosy predictions only further demoralize Obama's base. They've watched Obama for nearly four years, and I think most have concluded that he's nothing more than a windbag poser. They need real 'Change', and 'Hope' that someone will step in and end this disaster.
They're between a rock and a hard place. Can't vote for the 'evil' Republican. Can't drag themselves to the polls to vote for the guy who lied to them.
And even if you're one of the 20% hard-core left, these polls are only making you more comfortable and less inclined to vote like your life depends on it.
On the other hand, these fantasy polls are only strengthening Republican voter resolve to get out the vote like they're storming the Bastille.
Nope. Congress gave Obama nearly a Trillion Dollars, and he gave the money to Solyndra, Wall Street, and GM instead. Betcha she's pissed about that.
But he’s sorry he didn’t get to it yet, and he just needs another four years to do it, he promises.
You cI see very few yard signs this year. Blacks respond racially as a group to democrat race tactics. Logically I’d like to believe blacks will be dispirited and turned off, for example, by Obama’s gay rights stand.
However, realistically they will feel under attack because their man Obama is attacked.
Let me give you another image I know well. Malls loaded with black youths loaded with cash. Black women shopping with designer handbags. Every library dishing out info to a multitude of black citizens looking for free cell phones and all kinds of government freebies. Black kids getting all kinds of freebies and extra services and food at school.
So we’ll see. I don’t believe for a second many blacks will abandon Obama. Just my opinion. And as I say the democrats will do something even more racial as the election nears. You can count on it.
In their MSM infused universe, how would they ever know that Obama's being attacked? On what vector are our messages about Obama penetrating the consciousness of most black Americans?
Sure, the breathless MSM will report any slighting statement that any Republican utters about Obama, but the media drones won't dare tell the whole story. If they were to honestly repeat everything our side is saying, the left side of the country would probably faint dead away.
No, the MSM only repeats those snippets of commentary from our side that they can then spin to cast Republicans and patriots in a bad light. The left-wing rank and file has NO idea how bad their man is truly performing, because the real news is consistently drowned out by propaganda intended to paint a rosy picture of Obama's presidency. The MSM refuses to report on his real failures, and protects and insulates him from all criticism at all costs. Even their own credibility before the world, is not too much to sacrifice.
What little has penetrated the consciousness of most blacks, is devastating to Obama. Don't think for a moment that blacks haven't noticed their personal fortunes taking a plunge since he was elected. They've also noticed what an ineffectual blowhard he is, and how pussified he is on the world stage. Those things are impossible to miss - especially for a people who are culturally sensitive to con men, shysters, and hustlers of every description.
Trust me. These things are unconcealable, and will affect Obama in November.