Skip to comments.This Morning’s Polls Project More Heavily Democratic Electorates Than 2008
Posted on 09/26/2012 7:00:02 AM PDT by nhwingut
This morning, surveys from the New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac puts Obama ahead by 10 in Ohio, up by 12 in Pennsylvania, and up by 9 in Florida.
Since the issue of whether the party ID within polling samples is realistic seems to be the issue of the week, lets take a look at how these samples stack up to the 2008 exit polls.
Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008.
Over in the Weekly Standard, Jay Cost looks at recent Ohio polls and finds Gravis, Washington Post, and Fox basically see a replay of 2008 while Rasmussen and the Purple Poll see roughly something in between 2004 and 2008. They envision Democrat turnout being on par with last cycle or even better and this surge of Democratic enthusiasm comes at the same time the president has lost considerable ground among independents. Possible? I suppose, but again, why?
Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Somehow a D+7 split has turned into D+11 split, and Republicans share of the electorate is nine percentage points less than they were four years ago.
Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
Each partys share only shifts a few percentage points, but the overall split goes from D+3 to D+9.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
I highly doubt this.
The Criminal Organizers Formerly Known As ACORN cannot register enough dead voters to overcome the tsunami headed their way.
Seriously doubt it. Unskewedpolls.com has Romney up an average of 7.8%!!!!
I am not as confident as some; but this poll is BS. The presence of CBS and Quinnipiac tells us all we need to know.
The truth is in between. A belief that Barack Obama will only get the pre 2008 black vote is unfounded. They have three or more black heroes, Obama, Michelle, and Holder to vote for. They are hearing about chains, slavery and underground railroads. Blacks respond en masse to that stuff.
I know Freepers will chime in about what they hear from the black community. Despite those reports, blacks see it as their racial duty to vote for Obama.
AND the democrats will engage in even more racial provocation.
Getting a bit comical, no?
Especially if, and I haven’t seen this in any of these reports, you include the 2010 turnout numbers.
Another problem is that Kasich improved things in Ohio, and apparently the auto bailout had some effect there. It doesn’t look like any Obama states like Michigan are swinging.
Don’t get me wrong I believe Obama should lose in a landslide, and IF people like Romney in the debates that should make a big difference. However the eternal realist in me tells me Romney is out of practice, and debating Obama is a touchy proposition.
I think this race will be way closer than it should be. Hope I’m wrong.
Personally, I don't think demoralization by poll data works very well on our side. In 2008 those of us who were demoralized had it done to us by the man at the top of the ticket and (for some) acceptance of the lie that Obama could not really be as bad as it seemed.
If you saw Ralph Reid on Gretas show Monday night, he stated there were 17.1 million Evangelical Christians that either didnt register to vote in 2008 or didnt show up to the polls.
17.1 million potential votes for the GOP combined with lower turnout from Obamazombies it is going to be a blowout for Team R & R.
I’ll be shocked if Barry gets the 2004 turnout.
The black voters are not the issue for Obama. It is his “White Voters” from 2008 and in particular the young white voters age 18-30 who are much less energized in 2012 than in 2008...
He couldn't get a TV show?
Instead of using 2004 or 2008 demographics, why don’t they use 2010?
On what planet is this possible???? My gawd the propaganda machines from the old eastern block would be so proud!!
Accurate or not, it comprised the entire political 10 sec blurb on our local AM radio station at the top of the hour.
I have to admit it is disconcerting, which is its intent.
See Romney winning in electoral college. This is the reason why the MSM is fighting so hard. Right now Obama is losing and won’t be re-elected. http://www.redstate.com/jamesm/2012/09/24/barack-obamas-is-fighting-against-mitt-romney-and-the-electoral-college-and-losing/
There are no poll manipulations going on in this election. Not a single one.
Judging from facebook it’s only the hardest of the hardcore lefties that even show an inclination to vote for Obama...and most of that is just standard hatred against any Republican.
On the other hand soft lefties (i.e. independents) don’t seem to have near the enthusiasm. They’re feeling a snookered and sheepish.
And on the third hand, nearly every Republican or anyone that leans Republican is very active or very vocal.
Agreed but I’m very sure Dick Morris and others are factoring in a lower black turnout as well.