Skip to comments.Media Malpractice: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model
Posted on 09/26/2012 7:09:47 AM PDT by nhwingut
In what could be considered nothing short of media malpractice, the New York Times and CBS News published three state polls by Quinnipiac University that shows Democratic advantages in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at levels never before seen.
The allegedly scientific poll is said to give a clear idea of how the election might turnout if it were held today. But the published turnout assumes Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 33% in Florida and Ohio, while the advantage jumps by 40% in Pennsylvania.
Not surprisingly - despite their own data showing he is losing Independents in both FL and OH (PA data not released) - Obama is "clearly ahead" of Romney in all three states. And they say it isn't even close. Yep, even though he is losing the Independents he won handily in 2008, Obama is actually winning these swing states by more than double the margin he did then. Make sense?
In 2010, Republican's had a 1 point edge in turnout in Ohio, an even advantage in Florida, and just a 3 point deficit in Pennsylvania. Over the last 8 years, Democratic turnout has averaged just 1 point higher in Ohio and 4 points higher in Pennsylvania, while Republican turnout has averaged 1 point higher than Democratic turnout.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I believe this is completely premeditated and deliberate. Democratic operatives on the ground are turning out hundreds of “new voters” every day. I would bet that if we make it to election day, we will see voter fraud on an order never before seen in America. I would guess that a large number of precincts will have greater than 100% turnout.
At that point, the media can turn around and point to this poll as proof that Democrats turned out in droves to re-elect Barack the Magic Negro.
Desperate people commit desparate acts. Just like the Japanese Kamikaze campaign in WWII. It was effective for awhile but they still lost. Watch other polling organizations dispute their numbers.
Yes, it makes sense in the scenario where the election is rigged in “record levels” and these headlines are designed to alleviate incredulity.
In 2008 Obama won Florida indies by 7 and won state by 3.
In 2012 Obama is losing indies by 2 (-9 from 2008) yet winning state by 9 (+6 from 2008).
Peter Brown is the guy at Qunnipiac who is responsible for the most recent set of distorted polls.
Here are the rest of the gang:
Michael Blair, manager of polling information and technology, firstname.lastname@example.org
Carmen Carranza, assistant manager of interviewer operations, email@example.com
Dorothy Donarum, manager of interviewer operations, firstname.lastname@example.org
Ralph Hansen, manager of data analysis, email@example.com
Terri Vitelli, polling institute assistant, firstname.lastname@example.org
Jonathan Wigglesworth, manager of CATI operations, email@example.com
Why is it people always call them the “Democratic” party? There’s nothing “democratic” about how they do things.
Maybe the Pollsters are an extension of the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Dept of Bull Fudge)
Bugs me to no end.
This is going to be the story of the century (so far...seeing as we are only 12 years in) if Romney ends up winning.
If he wins by six to ten, ala 1980, then ....just incredible. That so many “free” media outlets would simultaneously turn into Pravda is incredible.
I think the goal is to run these bogus polls for the next couple of weeks, to see how much impact they can have with depressing/changing the vote.
Some people will actually change their vote based on this propaganda. Especially in the swing states - they will want to ride with the winner (unfortunately).
I think towards mid October they will change samples and close these party ids but it may be too late. We could have lost 1-2% which could hugely impact race.
I think you are correct.
Does anyone have good info or links to info about the vote counting? Is it being done overseas? Does anyone know what actions are in place — if any — to ensure our side doesn’t get completely defrauded?
I think this points up the fact that polls are manipulated, to make it seem that Obama is more popular than he really is.
I’ve heard more this election season about turnout models, and how they put the raw polling data into mathematical models. And those models predict voter tunrout among particular groups, plus how many of groups will vote for which candidate.
And, they also can feed in data on party affiliation among voters, among other things. In 2008, more voters identified as Dem than Republican, for example. This year, the opposite is true in polls. Voter turnout among young people, certain minorities, college students, is projected to be down.
Add it all up, among what polls indicate about support for Obama and expected turnout, whether country is right track or wrong track, and it’s hard to conclude that Obama is up in the polls as he is in some polls.
“The Old Gray Lady” is a whore....
What a disgusting denegration ... of whores!
I think this isn’t just about making Obama seem like he’s winning, to demoralize conservatives. I think its setting the stage for the after election process.
First you convince the people that Obama has a commanding lead. Then when he loses, its obviously because someone stole the election. Cue the rioting.
Yes, it’s hard to believe all of these polls when we have such a compelling GOP candidate.
“7878 ballots received. Republicans account for 48.6% of that total and Democrats 32.4%. Republicans continue to widen absentee ballot lead. Also of note, 63% of returned ballots from people over 60. AA total now 9.7%.”
Yet all media polls in the last 5 days have Obama up anywhere from 2 to 5 points in N.C. The real numbers contradict the media fantasy.
That’s why I expect Obama to propose a HUGE giveaway like student loan forgiveness. It’s the only way he’s gonna motivate those voters enough to come anywhere near that turnout model.
"Stunner: Obama Opens Big Leads in Another Skewed Poll"
A haphazardly administered poll of likely voters in the immediate vicinity of my house revealed today that 100% of the respondents were voting for Mitt Romney for President with current White House Resident in Chief, Barack Obama, receiving a stunning low 0% of votes.
How correct you are. Just making it bigger for all to see. Thanks.
Florida poll D+9
Ohio poll D+9
Pa Poll D+11
These polls are probably taken from DNC phone list. All are skewed exactly the same for Senate races and POTUS.
I recall something about a company in Spain doing the vote counting.
We are royally fscked, IMO. I wouldn’t be surprised to see every single precinct in the country reporting greater than 100% turnout if it means Obama gets back into office.
No amount of prepping will prepare us for what’s about to happen.
The oversampling may just reflect the expected enhanced turnout of Illegal-Americans and MultipleID-Americans and Dead-Americans this year as well as electronic manipuplation already programmed into certain machines.
Btw, I had heard that the NY Daily Snews reported record turnout for D’s outnumbering R’s in early voting in states. However, I seem to be picking up the exact opposite reporting so far, such as your post.
Has “Q” polling ever been right? Ever?
They had Carter close with Reagan when in fact, it was not close. They had Mondale closing with Reagan when in fact he was not. In 1988 they had that clown Dukakis in MA with a 17 point lead over Bush, when in reality he was not. In the 90's, polls showed Clinton with a 8 to 15 point lead on Dole, when in fact, he never did. They had Kerry close with Bush in 2004, when the fact was, he was never that close.
There’s already an enormous amount of disillusionment, unhappiness, and severe lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters. Obama’s policies have hurt his core constituencies more than almost every other demographic in the nation.
So, just how are these skewed polls lifting their spirits? I posit that they’re not making those on the bottom of the pile feel any better about November. In fact, these polls are probably making them feel worse.
They may not be ready to vote for the Republican, but in their hearts, they sure as hell want someone to fix Obama’s mess.