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To: SeekAndFind
Yes, but how valid is their assumption that Republican registration is 4.3 points higher than Democrats today?

I don't think it is an assumption, that based on actual registrations. I believe that for the first time, more people are registering Republican than Democrat. Seems like this should be reported all over the mainstream media, but it would make Obama look bad...
11 posted on 09/26/2012 10:08:03 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: yorkiemom; Red Badger
Yes, but how valid is their assumption that Republican registration is 4.3 points higher than Democrats today?

It's not based on registrations. It's based on Rasmussen's party identification poll, which is conducted every month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

However, even Rasmussen says that it's not valid to use this poll to adjust others that are sampled separately, or with different methodologies.

I think that most of the polls are skewed. It's not necessarily intentional, but promoting them as accurate without pointing out the obvious oversampling of Democrats is intentional. A reputable pollster would never do it.

But, it's hard to get an unskewed poll these days. Many Republicans are disgusted with the media, and refuse to participate in the polls. Others are simply too busy -- they aren't at home to answer the phone. The only people that participate in polls these days are the ones with nothing else to do.

And even then, you have no way to know if the respondent is being honest. I think you can imagine a number of situations where you would be subject to retribution if you said you wouldn't vote for a particular candidate. Put yourself in that situation: if you got a phone call from someone claiming to be a pollster, how would you respond?

19 posted on 09/26/2012 10:48:34 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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