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To: yorkiemom; Red Badger
Yes, but how valid is their assumption that Republican registration is 4.3 points higher than Democrats today?

It's not based on registrations. It's based on Rasmussen's party identification poll, which is conducted every month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

However, even Rasmussen says that it's not valid to use this poll to adjust others that are sampled separately, or with different methodologies.

I think that most of the polls are skewed. It's not necessarily intentional, but promoting them as accurate without pointing out the obvious oversampling of Democrats is intentional. A reputable pollster would never do it.

But, it's hard to get an unskewed poll these days. Many Republicans are disgusted with the media, and refuse to participate in the polls. Others are simply too busy -- they aren't at home to answer the phone. The only people that participate in polls these days are the ones with nothing else to do.

And even then, you have no way to know if the respondent is being honest. I think you can imagine a number of situations where you would be subject to retribution if you said you wouldn't vote for a particular candidate. Put yourself in that situation: if you got a phone call from someone claiming to be a pollster, how would you respond?

19 posted on 09/26/2012 10:48:34 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: justlurking
if you got a phone call from someone claiming to be a pollster, how would you respond? ,

I hold them in such contempt I would probably answer:

I'm a life long republican/tea party leader who plans on voting for Obama.

21 posted on 09/26/2012 10:54:46 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: justlurking
I think that most of the polls are skewed. It's not necessarily intentional, but promoting them as accurate without pointing out the obvious oversampling of Democrats is intentional. A reputable pollster would never do it.

But, it's hard to get an unskewed poll these days. Many Republicans are disgusted with the media, and refuse to participate in the polls. Others are simply too busy -- they aren't at home to answer the phone. The only people that participate in polls these days are the ones with nothing else to do.


True. It seems there are few honest, reputable pollsters. I wouldn't think they'd be likely to put their reputation and livelihood on the line, but they do it. Even though we look at Gallup's numbers showing Carter winning and laugh about it - they are still in business.
25 posted on 09/26/2012 11:15:56 AM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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