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Gallup Tracking: O-50/R-44
Gallup ^ | 9/26/12 | Gallup

Posted on 09/26/2012 10:12:45 AM PDT by tatown

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I don't know what to make of this. Up until about 4 days ago, Gallup had the race tied. There was a sudden shift to Obama on either Sat or Sun which showed up first in the approval number. I thought it was a one day good sample for Obama but that day rolled off the three day rolling approval tracker today and his approval number actually went up....?
1 posted on 09/26/2012 10:12:48 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

1) Registered or Likely voters?

2) What’s the D/R/I sampling of this poll.

Without the above data, numbers are as good as useless.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 10:13:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: tatown

This is a RV poll.


3 posted on 09/26/2012 10:14:56 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

I know it is an RV poll. The concern I have is the sudden change from 46/46 to 50/44. The 50/44 number is a high water mark.


4 posted on 09/26/2012 10:17:08 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

There is only one poll that counts. And it takes place in November. Just ask Jimmy Carter.


5 posted on 09/26/2012 10:17:26 AM PDT by ILS21R (The time is nigh.)
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To: tatown

Funny, I haven’t been polled once this year!


6 posted on 09/26/2012 10:17:53 AM PDT by blondee123 (Our country is headed for DICTATORSHIP! WAKE UP!)
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To: tatown

This is crap.


7 posted on 09/26/2012 10:18:20 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: ILS21R

Unskewedpolls.com still has Romney up 7.8%


8 posted on 09/26/2012 10:19:21 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: stephenjohnbanker

They are doctoring these polls, to make it seem that Obama is more popular than he really is.

And, they want to demoralize Republicans by claiming the Romney campaign is imploding.


9 posted on 09/26/2012 10:20:29 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Perdogg

goodness. EVERY POLL shows Romney losing, the one guy left his campaign for Wall Street and even NRO is saying Romney is shifting his strategy. Something tells me that R/R are down in their own polling. Doesn’t mean they’ll lose but lets get real here for a minute. It doesn’t look good at this point.


10 posted on 09/26/2012 10:20:39 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: tatown

Keep in mind that Gallup ranked near the bottom (I think 17th) in accuracy in 2008.(Rasmussen was most accurate)

I’ve quit looking at polls, or at least let it bother me when I do. It’ll drive you crazy.

If you’re feeling depressed, the remedy is to go back and look at polling data from 1980, or 1988, or 2010. Polls are never goign to predict a substantial Republican victory. They’re just simply too biased against it


11 posted on 09/26/2012 10:20:50 AM PDT by almcbean
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To: Dilbert San Diego

Right on both counts.


12 posted on 09/26/2012 10:23:29 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: almcbean

Accuracy as in they had Obama winning bigger than he did but they were still accurate in that Obama won. I don’t really care if they’re off a few points the fact is all these polls keep showing Obama ahead. And how exactly with the price of gas, and food, and the cost of debt, and the bad employment numbers along with the fact that NOBODY really likes his Obamacare plan does this bastard get 50 to 51 percent job approval. Romney is not running an effective campaign if this is the case. Is he afraid to be tough?

This is a disaster.


13 posted on 09/26/2012 10:24:25 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: GilGil

Really? Romney is getting killed. This is looking like 2008 all over again. The “establishment” puts up a lousy candidate and we are left on the outside. Down ballot races are being affected too. Face facts we are in trouble.


14 posted on 09/26/2012 10:24:53 AM PDT by chopperjc
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To: tatown
Americans are lovin' the 'CHANGE'?


15 posted on 09/26/2012 10:25:05 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: tatown

I think he’s having a self-created ‘bandwagon effect’ from the good poll reports in the media and it will collapse.


16 posted on 09/26/2012 10:25:39 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: chopperjc

What proof do you have, other than bogus polls, that Romney is getting killed?


17 posted on 09/26/2012 10:28:11 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: tatown
The day after the elections: "The nation is stunned. Every poll in the country showed the President up by anywhere from 5 to 15 points, and yet Romney wins by 8??? The case for Republican voter fraud couldn't be more obvious...disenfranchisement of Democrat voters at record levels..."

You can see it coming...an obvious set-up.

18 posted on 09/26/2012 10:32:14 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: tatown

This is more absurd yet, this is the seven day moving average that had a one point difference yesterday or day before, That means basically Obama had to have about 61-39 day of polling, that is the biggest whopper of all the polling to date!


19 posted on 09/26/2012 10:33:11 AM PDT by shoedog
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To: SeekAndFind
Anyone that will spend 4 million dollars to keep you from knowing anything about him is not above paying/threatening a mere polling agency to change the results!
20 posted on 09/26/2012 10:33:56 AM PDT by Foolsgold (L I B Lacking in Brains)
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To: chopperjc

He is not getting killed. Face facts you are being suckered and being led by the nose. The MSM says jump and you say how high. You have no idea how to fight. If you are such an expert what are you doing on FR with all your free advice? A genius like you should be at he seat of power calling the shots but you are not are you?

Maybe you might just be a troll. Maybe you might be 100% wrong. Face facts you are not up for this fight. Come to think of it don’t go vote. It is over by your standards. Stay home. We don’t need you.


21 posted on 09/26/2012 10:37:14 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: chopperjc

Drink MSM Koolaid much?


22 posted on 09/26/2012 10:37:45 AM PDT by what's up
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To: Dilbert San Diego
Bingo. Obama OWNS the news media. They work for him and carry his water. Another reason the Obamamedia is lying about these polls is because the Obama regime needs cover for their voter fraud campaign. The final result might back in to these numbers when voter fraud votes are factored in.

HEY ROMNEY YOU NEED TO CALL OBAMA OUT ON HIS LIES, UNCONSTITUTIONAL ACTS, AND HIS WILLFUL WEAKENING OF AMERICA.. KEEP TALKING ABOUT HIS REJECTION OF THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE AND FORCED COAL PLANT CLOSURES TOO!!

23 posted on 09/26/2012 10:41:32 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: GilGil

I’m going to find all the same posts like yours from 2008. When all the polls showed McCain losing for weeks yet people here still insisting the polls were wrong. The similarities are annoying to say the lest.

Face it. We’re squabbling over a few points. Another Freeper made a good point. With all the mess all over the world, Romney should be up by 5 at least. Gas and food at record highs. Our embassies being overrun. An American ambassador was KILLED for god’s sake. This race should be over. Shame on Romney for such as sorry ass campaign.


24 posted on 09/26/2012 10:42:45 AM PDT by paul544
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To: GilGil

So lets see in the face of a mountain of data, it is all a conspiracy. In 2004 the liberals were trying to debunk polls to say they were ahead. How did that work for them? In 2010 same thing. In 2008 many here did it too. So because I believe in data I am a troll. I am even told not to vote. This seems a little counterproductive. I will work for down ballot races I will vote but I have been preaching for a long time Mitt is a flawed candidate, he is a lousy campaigner, he has given the country no vision. I am sorry I feel this way but I refuse to write or say everything is roses when it is not


25 posted on 09/26/2012 10:48:29 AM PDT by chopperjc
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To: Foolsgold
Pollsters Threatened by Axelrod and the Obama DOJ

Wonder why the US presidential tracking polls were all showing Romney leading Obama until the DOJ brought a lawsuit against the Gallup Organization
Canadian Free Press
26 posted on 09/26/2012 10:50:04 AM PDT by Foolsgold (L I B Lacking in Brains)
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To: paul544

As I said stay home. All is lost. There is no point in even fighting this out. We are going to assume you are right and that the MSM is 100% accurate and honest.It is all over. Congratulations for being the first to call the race for Obama. Your contribution will be truly appreciated over time as being the first to throw in the towel. What a towering human being you are so smart and above it all!


27 posted on 09/26/2012 10:51:41 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: tatown

Regardless if this poll and others are rigged to have Obama in the lead, this is NOT a good trend, I knew Obama would likely be reelected.


28 posted on 09/26/2012 10:54:04 AM PDT by yield 2 the right (2012, the election year that stinks!)
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To: snarkytart

Well, looks pretty good for the “Fonz”. Maybe weve been the ones in the bubble.


29 posted on 09/26/2012 10:54:07 AM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
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To: paul544

I completely agree with this post.


30 posted on 09/26/2012 10:55:26 AM PDT by rbbeachkid (Get out of its way and small business can fix the economy.)
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To: shoedog
This is more absurd yet, this is the seven day moving average that had a one point difference yesterday or day before, That means basically Obama had to have about 61-39 day of polling, that is the biggest whopper of all the polling to date!...

Exactly... They got a very large majority of respondents on that day from very liberal areas...

I think a good pollster not only should make a realistic party ID breakdown but also should publish the area codes of where the respondents are from...

31 posted on 09/26/2012 10:56:26 AM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: tatown

I realize most of these polls are flawed, but seriously WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY? We have a Marxist idiot in the WH destroying this country,and if (GOD forbid) he gets 4 more years I have no doubt he’ll finish the job, and the mere fact that he might get relected just makes me want to puke? Hence, my tagline.


32 posted on 09/26/2012 10:57:09 AM PDT by Marathoner (If the bastard were to win reelection, let America burn. IDGAF anymore.)
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To: tatown

Romney made the mistake by announcing he will fire Bernanke and consider studying making gold part of money. Wall Street bankers just freaked. They want Bernanke because he will keep bailing them out and any notion of a gold standard would destroy the flexible printing of money bankers have enjoyed. Romney is facing an MSM who is getting marching orders from Wall Street and bankers, skew the polls, Obama is a known quantity, Romney is a risk on their schemes and rice bowl. They rather risk Obama as POTUS then Romney and the silly notions of the Tea Party.


33 posted on 09/26/2012 10:57:20 AM PDT by Fee
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To: Dilbert San Diego

This is the first election I can remember where it appears the media/polling is totally set up to promote Dems.

In the past it was more subtle, IIRC.


34 posted on 09/26/2012 10:57:23 AM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: tatown

State run media’s fake poll numbers http://www.wnd.com/wnd_video/state-run-medias-fake-poll-numbers/


35 posted on 09/26/2012 11:03:45 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: tatown

And today’s Rasmussen poll shows the opposite, Romney Up, Obama down.

Same thing as happened last week for Rasmussen. 0bama had one really good polling day and it skewed the sample. Now the trend is back to where it was before the good Obama sample day.

This happens from time to time in daily polling. One candidate or the other has a really good day and it skews the sample. Need 4-5 days data to see if this is statistical noise or a new trend.


36 posted on 09/26/2012 11:07:23 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Marathoner

I’ll tell you exactly what is going on..its exactly what Obama wanted when spoke at Loyota University in 1998, he talked about a total dependency on Govt so that it will be a permanent political system(Democrat controlled forever)..you have 50 percent of Americans who pay ZERO taxes, you have 15+ million more Americans collecting welfare and food stamps..you have more and more people reliant on Govt, of course they would keep on voting for the party that keeps on giving them free goodies, thats just the way it is, and you also have a media SO in the tank for Obama they refuse to report ANYTHING that he does remotely wrong. If the media were unbiased in this country Obama would be down 30 points right now..People are sheep, they do what the media tells them to do..and if at the end Obama does win re-election I guess in a sad way this country gets what it deserves


37 posted on 09/26/2012 11:08:39 AM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: tatown

These leftie polling organization have as much credibility as the mainstream media. They are incapable of dealing with facts and truth.


38 posted on 09/26/2012 11:09:21 AM PDT by cblue55 (The only truly hopeful future for America will be the defeat of Obama on November 6.)
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To: MNJohnnie

If you look at Obama’s approval numbers the past 4 days you’ll see that the improvement to his 3 day rolling average is not the result of one day of good polling. The first ‘good’ day rolled off today yet his approval actually went up.


39 posted on 09/26/2012 11:09:52 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: chopperjc

I live in NC. I live in the County, but had an opportunity to drive around “the City” - Greensboro - extensively today. In 2008 we lived in Greensboro. Our neighborhood, which would be considered middle class/upper middle class (golf course, etc.) had Obama yard signs in every other yard. Today I went through that same neighborhood - not a one. In my tour I found exactly 4 Obama signs, 3 in the city, 1 in the county. I found 40+ Romney signs. Downtown (in otherwords, black neighborhoods), the African braiding shops and pawn shops and gentlemen’s clubs have creative Obama signs. Interestingly enough there are a lot more down ballot signs than presidential signs and those signs are almost entirely for Republican candidates. If you count signs, McCrory has already won the race. In one instance, I saw an Obama sign and a McCrory sign in the same yard. On the drive to school this morning, I counted six new Romney signs. I don’t know on the national level, but any poll that shows Obama ahead in NC is pure BS.

Likewise, in Tennessee (where I have a second home). The only place there are any Obama signs are around college campuses and in certain neighborhoods in Memphis.

In both states, the yard signs and bumper sticker count for Obama is dramatically lower than in 2008.


40 posted on 09/26/2012 11:12:33 AM PDT by Roses0508
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To: paul544; chopperjc; yield 2 the right

So despite the long history of the Mass Media actively working to elect Democrats, for example 2000 holding the Bush DUI story to the weekend before the election, the 2004 fraudulent Bush National Guard story, the 2008 coordination of Media coverage between the media and the Obama camp via the Jour-0-list website, you “conservatives” want to just blanket accept what ever the Junk media tells you think in 2012?

Please tell me you are not this utterly naive.


41 posted on 09/26/2012 11:12:41 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: snarkytart
EVERY POLL shows Romney losing

Not Rasmussen who was number 1 in accuracy in 2008

42 posted on 09/26/2012 11:14:15 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tatown

We will know much, much more after the first debate.

Mr. President: Why are you so likeable and such a nice guy?

Mr. Romney: How many people have you caused to die and why are you so evil?

The questions are going to be so favorable to Obama...

My take.


43 posted on 09/26/2012 11:19:45 AM PDT by montomike (Politics should be about service and not a lucrative, money-making opportunity!)
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To: tatown

NObama got a +2 and Romney a -2 bounce in yesterday’s Gallup poll. Obama got a similar bump in his approval rating of +2. We haven’t seen enough data yet to know if that is statistical noise or a new trend

Obama got a similar bump last week in both the daily tracking and approval Rassmussen’s poll. 5 days later and that bump is completely gone. Today’s Rasmussen, with leaners, shows Romney up +2

So again, this is not enough data to be considered a new trend. We need to see 4-5 more days of this before it can be considered a trend


44 posted on 09/26/2012 11:20:20 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Roses0508

Here’s another yard sign anecdote: my primary residence is in the 2st Congressional District of Virginia, one of the “reddest” parts of the state (usually rated as an R+7 district). Currently, the GOP HQ in my area has a two-week waiting list for Romney yard signs, while signs for George Allen and the local congressman, Rob Wittman are readily available.

Yes, it’s a very conservative area, but no one has seen enthusiasm like this in a long, long time. The vendor literally can’t keep up with demand, and it’s the same way in adjoining areas as well. Either the Romney campaign hired an incompetent firm to produce their yard signs, or the state of Virginia will turn red again this November.


45 posted on 09/26/2012 11:26:57 AM PDT by ExNewsExSpook
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To: MNJohnnie

Another interesting link re: military voting

http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/military-told-to-submit-ballots-after-deadline/?cat_orig=politics


46 posted on 09/26/2012 11:37:57 AM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Fee
Don't you think that Romney knows how Wall Street bankers think and what do they want?... I think he knows them better than anyone else...

The liberal media does not need marching orders from anyone to implement Obama last strategy of "demoralizing" the Republican/Conservative base... They know how to do it and they may have even suggested to Obama that this is his final strategy after everything else he tried failed... But this will also fail as well...

47 posted on 09/26/2012 11:54:34 AM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: tatown

What was the breakdown of this as far as Democrats and Republicans


48 posted on 09/26/2012 11:54:49 AM PDT by zt1053
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To: zt1053

Not a clue...


49 posted on 09/26/2012 12:01:45 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: All
This is so mind boggling. Everyone I talk to seems to live in fear of an Obama re-election but then I live in Arizona and don't really associate much with liberals or morons, if I can help it.

What is going on out there?

50 posted on 09/26/2012 12:04:10 PM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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