But Peter Brown at Quinnipiac, the NY Times and CBS says there will be record Democrat turnout in Ohio.
Posted on 09/26/2012 12:50:43 PM PDT by Red Steel
It’s too early to draw strong conclusions, but it’s a good bet that early voting in Ohio will surpass 2008 levels. More than 10 percent of Ohio’s registered voters — 723,000 including military personnel and overseas residents — have mailed applications for absentee ballots to county election boards, according to the office of Secretary of State Jon Husted. In 2008, about 30 percent of Ohio voters cast absentee ballots by mail or voted early in person.
This year’s early in-person voting begins Tuesday.
-snip-
Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.
The nearly 2 to 1 partisan split mirrors current registration in the county, which is about 98,000 Republican and 45,000 Democratic. ...
“There are a lot more people who identify as Democrats,” she said. “It’s all a snapshot.”
-snip-
Romney rally this morning in the central Ohio town of Westerville, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) urged the crowd to cast early ballots.
“I’ve got a question: How many of you still have an application for an absentee ballot? Let’s see those hands, you’ve gotta do it,..."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Encouraging.
Ping!
You already knew this though. :0)
I am sure if the liberal media was polling this county, they would be sampling + 7 for the Democrats.
Many Dems may stay home when they hear from pollsters like Peter Brown at Quinnipiac because "they think" Obama and company got it in the bag.
What I find interesting is that about 31,000 of the requests were nonpartisan, which is more than the combined totals for the Dems and Reps. Obama won Hamilton 225,000 to 195,000 and Cuyahoga 458,000 to 200,000. Obama won Ohio by about 227,000 votes.
This is why the Dems are panicking and releasing these bogus polls. They hope that it will keep Republicans at home. Dems are NOT enthusiastic about Obama, that is why Obama is going on Letterman and The View, he considers that to be more important because he needs to energize his base. He can’t even get his looney base to the polls. Who watches Letterman..Liberals..who watches The View..liberals..if Obama had this election in the bag he wouldn’t bother going on these shows, he needs to go on them badly to energize his own whack job base
We assume they're telling the truth...but who knows...maybe there's a pile of 10,000 votes...over there....that isn't in this tally.
If Obama was by alot in Ohio and other swing states, he would going into red states and start campaining there.. I remember Bill Clinton came to Texas in 1996, in late Setpember or early October because he was ahead by alot.
Just a quick question....HOW do you know they are republican ballots?! I thought NO one was suppose to know the party or name of the person who mails in their ballot. Just a question, please clarify for me cause right now I’m skeptical about everything being reported out there...Thanks!
Exactly! You would think if Obama were up by 10 points in Ohio(I think Obama is up by the same amount here in California yet I see non stop ads for the prick here) he wouldn’t bother campaigning there. Who wastes their time campaigning in a state they already have won? It would be like Romney campaigning in Texas, or Oklahoma. I follow a girl on facebook who is a lefty(I had no idea she was a lefty til after I added her, she is a nice girl but really misinformed) and she lives in Mason, Ohio, all day yesterday she was posting on her wall, begging people in Ohio to vote for Obama, now if Obama has Ohio in the bag why are leftists begging for votes
Good news
As far as I know, looks like they’re going by the types of ballots being requested. Such and such number requests Republic ballots, ergo, Romney voters.
-——Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties.-——
The action in Cuyahoga County is not good. It suggests that the Obama campaign is working with pro-Obama voters to get them to vote early and ensure that they get a high turnout. And this all flies under the radar while letting Obama make up for the lack of enthusiasm on his side.
Maybe you can drag a bunch of unenthusiastic voters to vote for you if you have a whole month to do so.
Surely it will be acceptable to vote by absentee as well as showing up at the polls as the Democrats have been doing for decades. When in Rome.....
The voting signs and indicator when you drill down to the data don’t support the Dem election talking points. To whether that things can be shown to be 100% accurate and without subterfuge that can never be. These Ohio voters are very likely real Rs and real Ds voting early to the most part.
I think it’s more along the lines if you voted in republican or democratic primary, then you’re assigned that party when the ballot is mailed to you.
I think it’s more along the lines if you voted in republican or democratic primary, then you’re assigned that party when the ballot is mailed to you.
WTH?
THIS:
“Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.”
SAYS THE SAME AS THIS:
“The nearly 2 to 1 partisan split mirrors current registration in the county, which is about 98,000 Republican and 45,000 Democratic. ...”
RIGHT?
BUT, DOES THIS SAY THE SAME THING AND SINCE IT DOES NOT HOW IS IT TRUE OR DOES IT MAKE SENSE OR DOES IT NEED TO?
“There are a lot more people who identify as Democrats,” she said. “It’s all a snapshot.”
And how is it that the other day in polling Cayohouga Co came out so strong for obastard?
WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON HERE?
I’m seeing Obama ads in Massachusetts too. Maybe they are targeting NH voters but it’s expensive to run ads on Boston stations - you’d think they’d focus on NH stations. Obama is supposed to have the Northeast locked up but I don’t see a whole lot of Obama stickers like I saw in 2008.
76000 dems requested ballots in Cuyahoga. 34000 repubs requested ballots in Cuyahoga. Difference is 42000 and Obama beat McCain by 458,000 to 200,000 in 2008. So a 258000 difference has shrunk to 42000. This is not enough for Obama. These voters are the hardcore voters also. Some time to make up the difference until November 6th but I doubt he’ll reach his Cuyahoga margin from 2008 of 258,000. If I had to guess his margin will be around 100,000 in Cuyahoga but we’ll see. Another wrinkle is how all these unaffiliated voters are casting their ballots - that I really want to know.
And also remember everyone got mailed an application to request an absentee ballot in Ohio - this is different from 2008. So those who are interested are sending in their requests and reflects voter intensity.
Not to worry....there are carloads of ballots that will be "found" as necessary, loaded by Union Thugs and ACORN-types, just in case it gets too close for The Messiah.
The Ads Im seeing here in SoCal are all on cable stations(dont know if that makes any difference) Hallmark Channel, TV Land, HGTV..I would figure its expensive to have Ads playing here too, why bother if he already has the state won he’s just wasting money(Which doesnt surprise me since thats all Dems know how to do)
And yet Obama is still trailing, percentage-wise, compared to 2008 absentee ballot requests. From LS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
The apples-to-apples comparison is with 2008 absentee ballot requests. Obama is trailing there. From freeper LS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
For Hamilton County, this is a non sequitur statement gratuitously put in the article by the Wapo Compost writer. A 'huh' moment?
And how is it that the other day in polling Cayohouga Co came out so strong for obastard? WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON HERE?
Well, in Cayohouga Co, I believe LS reported that the early voting Dems are so far under performing there versus 2008.
Early voting just gives the corrupt election officials that much longer to destroy the ballots from likely Republican voters!
Thanks, a bit more factual.
D way out number R and will probably continue that way in that state.
Total turn out so far is lower than 08 but are these numbers at the same time frame?
Too early to see much conclusively.
107,887 Total Absentee Ballots requested...
GOP - 23,694
Dem - 17,966
GOP advantage is now 5728
Is there a difference in the way early voting ballots are handled versus absentee ballots?
I thought absentee ballots only actually got counted if they could make a difference after the election day’s vote tally was completed. So if a candidate was up by 10,000 votes and there were 11,000 absentees ballots not opened, they wouldn’t be opened because it would be unlikely for them to go 90+% to the other guy.
So, are early vote ballots treated like that?
—— GOP advantage is now 5728 -——
All evidence indicates a yawning enthusiasm gap.
So, Obama is running ads in Blue states and I keep seeing where he’s out buying ads in toss up states versus Romney. Why is this? WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH ROMNEY? Where is the big ad explosion? If he out raised obama for the last few months, where is the money going?
76000 dems requested ballots in Cuyahoga. 34000 repubs requested ballots in Cuyahoga. Difference is 42000 and Obama beat McCain by 458,000 to 200,000 in 2008. So a 258000 difference has shrunk to 42000. This is not enough for Obama. These voters are the hardcore voters also. Some time to make up the difference until November 6th but I doubt he’ll reach his Cuyahoga margin from 2008 of 258,000. If I had to guess his margin will be around 100,000 in Cuyahoga but we’ll see. Another wrinkle is how all these unaffiliated voters are casting their ballots - that I really want to know.
The (D) 458k to (R) 200k in 2008 was absentee ballots or actual votes (or both)?
There is only one major NH station. WMUR(ABC)Manchester. If you want your ad on during the Patroits game, for example, you need to put it on the CBS or FOX Boston stations.
All absentee ballots are counted. Provisional ballots may or may not be counted.
Total votes for Cuyahoga for 2008.
What part of CA are you in? Could it be they’re buying in a CA media market that hits parts of NV?
Saw an article this morning about how in 1984, the media ran a poll in CA that showed Reagan up just a few points over Mondale. Nancy Reagan panicked, Ed Rollins told her not to worry, that there was no way it was accurate, but then did a poll at her urging. His poll showed Reagan up 16 points in CA.
BTW, about facebook...lefty friends have either gotten really quiet or really hysterical in the past few weeks.
Maybe the Dems found a way to request Republican ballots so they can cast absentee votes for Obama in the names of Republicans, and when those Republicans show up to vote they’ll be turned away because the record shows they already voted for Obama by absentee.
My county is very red (it’s gone for the Dems 3 times since 1900, voting for FDR, Johnson and Obama) but I was seeing lots of Obama stickers and T-Shirts at this time in 2008. Not so, today. In fact, when I see a car with Obama stickers, they usually have multiple stickers. And this is in a county where I was still seeing Kerry-Edwards stickers on cars in 2010.
Those may be national ads bought from the network rather than the cable system. I kind of doubt it, though, because my wife watches Hallmark and HGTV and I haven’t seen any Obama ads.
Los Angeles..I dont see any Obama Ads on my local channels(CBS, NBC, ABC, KCAL, Fox 11) only on the cable channels..I already saw it three times today, I quickly change the channel since the sight of Obama makes me physically ill
The Obama ads are also running in Riverside and San Bernardino.
“Obama won Hamilton 225,000 to 195,000” =your money quote.
I have no idea what the Romney team/state GOP thinks is their “ideal” Hamilton Co. number, but I’d have to think it’s at least a 50,000 advantage. When you throw in Warren, that should amount to about an 80,000 advantage.
That leaves Romney needing about 45,000 vote advantage from all of the rest of OH combined. Do you think that’s hard?
In OH and NC (don’t know about FL) when you request an absentee ballot, I think they note whether a registered R or D, based on address, has requested the ballot. But, yah, we know. And the numbers look REALLY good in OH so far.
Do me a favor-—I can barely keep up with all the numbers. When you do an update like this can you say, “GOP advantage is now 5728, UP from last report of 5500” or something like that? Thanks. BTW, Rush came very close to discussing these specific numbers today. He spoke in generalities, but I thought he was going to “go there.” He has them.
However, take that % and multiply times your margins in Cayahoga and you can get a pretty good idea where we are. You CANNOT say "the difference of 258,000 shrank to 42,000 because the Cuyahoga #s represent ALL votes, not just early votes.
That said, I think Cuyahoga's D/R ratio is three to one, and at this pace, they will come in well under 2008.
So when you ask what happens in Cuyahoga Co., the answer is, nothing. It's doing what it does . . . except at a slower rate than in 08 and is underperforming.
I haven't checked today, but as of yesterday the percents were 54% for Ds and 24% for Rs---but in 2008 the victory margin was 68-30!! So the Rs have lost six points but the Ds have lost 14 off their 08 pace.
Do you think that Romney can turn Hamilton around in his favor and reduce the damage coming from Cuyahoga? Personally, I don't think Romney can win without Ohio.
I really believe that Romney and Ryan need to go after Obama's personal narrative. They need to attack his phony autobiography, his associations, his political philosophy, and his murky past. They can do it thru surrogates, but it needs to be done and done soon given the start of early voting. How say you?
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