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How GOP Can Get 51 Senate Seats Without Todd Akin
National Journal ^ | 09/26/2012 | Michael Catalini

Posted on 09/26/2012 4:35:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Our colleagues take a close look today at Republicans' path to 51 in the Senate now that the Missouri Senate race is tilting in Democrats' favor.

(RELATED: NRSC Softens Stance on Akin)

Republicans thought they could count on Rep. Todd Akin to beat Sen. Claire McCaskill, but since his comments about rape, polling suggests the GOP is in trouble in the Show-Me State.

(RELATED: DeMint, Santorum Are Backing Akin Now)

Reid Wilson explains:

Republicans believe Akin's comments all but disqualify him from office, and several polls taken during the last month show McCaskill surging ahead.

But there are broader ramifications: Republicans need to win a net of four seats to take control of the Senate, and they counted Missouri as one of the states they would certainly win.

So how will the GOP get to 51 in the Senate?

Now, the GOP is investigating other paths to a majority, paths that meander through more Democratic-leaning states like Connecticut and Maine, and through more entrenched Democratic incumbents in Florida and Ohio.

Republicans have plenty of opportunities to get to the 51 seats they would need to control the Senate outright. Polling shows Sen. Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska is almost certain to turn red, while Sen. Jon Tester is running slightly behind Rep. Denny Rehberg in a recent Mason-Dixon survey in Montana. But Republican candidates are running behind expectations in North Dakota, Wisconsin and Indiana, and vulnerable Republican incumbents in Massachusetts and Nevada give Democrats room to expand the playing field. Polls even show longer-shot Democratic hopes like Arizona narrowing as voters tune in.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gop; senate; toddakin

1 posted on 09/26/2012 4:36:00 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

We want 60 seats.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 4:39:19 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: SeekAndFind

I thought Akin should have quit. He didn’t. So let’s get him in there.

Look, 51 isn’t safe.

Anyone here trust Lisa Murkowski? Not me. Nor McInsane. Nor Lindsey Graham.

Akin may have had a bad sound bite, but he’ll be a damn conservative vote in the Senate.


3 posted on 09/26/2012 4:39:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: Sacajaweau

RE: We want 60 seats.

That’s a very nice THOUGHT. Whether that’s going to happen is another matter altogether.


4 posted on 09/26/2012 4:40:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Instead of trying to find a weasel way around Akin, why not just support him? Biden is gaffe-o-matic but the Dhims dont try to cover him up.


5 posted on 09/26/2012 4:41:47 PM PDT by Finatic (I ran out of change and have given up on hope. FUBO, I am so sick of your sorry a$$ you effin punk)
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To: SeekAndFind

Instead of trying to find a weasel way around Akin, why not just support him? Biden is gaffe-o-matic but the Dhims dont try to cover him up.


6 posted on 09/26/2012 4:41:47 PM PDT by Finatic (I ran out of change and have given up on hope. FUBO, I am so sick of your sorry a$$ you effin punk)
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To: Sacajaweau

We won’t get it. Not this time around.


7 posted on 09/26/2012 4:42:57 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: Finatic

Yes! Imagine demanding the same fealty of mittbots to Akin that the mittbots demand of Conservatives to mitt?


8 posted on 09/26/2012 4:44:53 PM PDT by Sirius Lee (Nuke Mecca.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Are people in Missouri THAT imbecilic that they would actually CHANGE their vote because of that remark? I’m not getting this at all. Akin was ahead of what’s-her-name because they were totally fed up with her, but they are now going to vote for her because her opponent made a remark. What am I missing?


9 posted on 09/26/2012 4:46:17 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: SeekAndFind

I want Akin to win.
I am sick of the GOPe and panty waist Republicans.


10 posted on 09/26/2012 4:46:25 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I don’t trust Scott Brown either if he gets in.


11 posted on 09/26/2012 4:48:25 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: SeekAndFind

51 GOP seats mean the Democrats win everything 53-47


12 posted on 09/26/2012 4:49:35 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP, and PACs need to carpet bomb Ohio and Florida.

They would defeat Nelson and Brown (to take the Senate) and help Romney - a twofer.


13 posted on 09/26/2012 4:50:32 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SeekAndFind
National Journal is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat National Committee. Go look at who runs it.

Basically you can treat anything the National Journal publishes the same way you would treat a press release from Harry Reid's office.

14 posted on 09/26/2012 4:50:47 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: svcw

He should win and become an independent after taking his seat


15 posted on 09/26/2012 4:52:19 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GeronL

The GOP will get a majority in the Senate and Akin will be one of the new Senators.


16 posted on 09/26/2012 4:55:01 PM PDT by Laura722
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To: FrdmLvr

RE: Are people in Missouri THAT imbecilic that they would actually CHANGE their vote because of that remark?

Here’s recent history for your reference -— George Allen used the word “Macaca” to describe a mixed race person.

Does anyone believe that he lose the 2006 Senate elections to Jim Webb because he used that term? Or did he lose because of the general anti-republican sentiment in 2006 that caused Congress to swing Democrat?

I find it hard to believe that the Virginians are so shallow that they would allow the single use of this word to overshadow POLICY issues.


17 posted on 09/26/2012 4:57:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: GeronL
51 GOP seats mean the Democrats win everything 53-47

Easily. The Republicans will want to "reach across the aisle" (gag) and "share" leadership with their "esteemed" (retch) colleagues. I can see McCain making the speech now. Lots of applause led by Schmuckie Schumer and Stinky Reid.

18 posted on 09/26/2012 4:58:13 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: Laura722

RE: The GOP will get a majority in the Senate and Akin will be one of the new Senators.

Interesting. We’d like to understand what factors you base your predictions on...


19 posted on 09/26/2012 4:58:55 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SoFloFreeper

akin needs more than just the Conservative vote to win.
Independent and women voters do not like his rape and uterus commentary.
Apologies do not seem to be working for akin.
The GOP can not afford to look like they support his comments.

I do not see any path to victory for akin.


20 posted on 09/26/2012 5:02:51 PM PDT by soycd
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To: SeekAndFind

Factor: Obama


21 posted on 09/26/2012 5:08:36 PM PDT by Laura722
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To: Laura722

So, how is the faux Messiah doing in Missouri nowadays?

Is he generally more loved or despised?


22 posted on 09/26/2012 5:10:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: soycd

There is no choice now...Akin or McCaskill.


23 posted on 09/26/2012 5:11:56 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: soycd

RE: Independent and women voters do not like his rape and uterus commentary.

So, Missouri Women and Independents will vote based on this one remark, ignore his apology and clarification and totally not consider any policy issues at all?

The debt, the deficit, unemployment, national defense, all take a back seat to the one single remark he made?

If the answer is “yes” that says a lot about Missourians right there...


24 posted on 09/26/2012 5:13:04 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
THAT TOO!!!!!!

But the media can only have so much influence. One remark can negate an entire candidate? The people ARE imbeciles, if they're going to vote for someone they DON'T want because of one remark.

25 posted on 09/26/2012 5:15:53 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: SeekAndFind
Is the GOP-e writing off a Romney win in Missouri? IF Akin loses so will Romney. Missouri is a swing state... they in majority HATE obamacare.... Missouri has a liberal governor, and one lying liberal ‘woman’ senator. So maybe Romney is the one in trouble in Missouri and it is soooo easy to blame Akin?
26 posted on 09/26/2012 5:18:58 PM PDT by Just mythoughts (Please help Todd Akin defeat Claire and the GOP-e send money!!!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

And not only that, but the people of Missouri would throw the election to the democrats because of that remark? UNBELIEVABLE!


27 posted on 09/26/2012 5:21:13 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: SeekAndFind

Let’s do it WITH Akin, ‘kay ?


28 posted on 09/26/2012 5:21:23 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: soycd
akin needs more than just the Conservative vote to win. Independent and women voters do not like his rape and uterus commentary. Apologies do not seem to be working for akin. The GOP can not afford to look like they support his comments. I do not see any path to victory for akin.

Have you moved to Missouri? IF not then keep your unsolicited comments to yourself as YOU are not helping we Missourians defeat Clair the lying liberal.

Who are your Senators?

29 posted on 09/26/2012 5:23:27 PM PDT by Just mythoughts (Please help Todd Akin defeat Claire and the GOP-e send money!!!!!)
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To: svcw

I like the way Akin stood up to bully Karl Rove.


30 posted on 09/26/2012 5:26:11 PM PDT by Memphis Moe
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To: SoFloFreeper
.....agreed... sound logic...

Where are the Rovistas or the Crytalistas....

No where in sight....

31 posted on 09/26/2012 5:28:44 PM PDT by ptsal (E)
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To: Memphis Moe

A “like” button is need here


32 posted on 09/26/2012 5:33:13 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t think people should count Todd out yet. I can tell you he won’t be beholden to the GOP if he gets in.


33 posted on 09/26/2012 5:35:34 PM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Add Susan Collins, Lamar Alexander, Scott Brown, Thad Cochran, and Orrin Hatch to your list of potential unreliables.


34 posted on 09/26/2012 5:38:37 PM PDT by Soul of the South
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To: Soul of the South

Orrin, Thad and Lamar less so...but yes....


35 posted on 09/26/2012 5:42:19 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SeekAndFind

Then how about 52 with Akin?


36 posted on 09/26/2012 5:55:34 PM PDT by stevem
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To: Soul of the South

Yeah, let’s face it, we probably need 80 Republican Senators to have a simple majority when it comes to passing Conservative legislation.


37 posted on 09/26/2012 5:58:09 PM PDT by taterjay
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To: SeekAndFind

You’re forgetting something big.

The elites came out against Akin in droves.

This tells us that of all Senate candidates, we should push for Akin to win more than anyone else.


38 posted on 09/26/2012 6:02:13 PM PDT by reasonisfaith (Why do you seek the living among the dead? (Luke 24:5))
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To: freeangel

” I can tell you he won’t be beholden to the GOP if he gets in.”

And just how will that “help” our situation? We all know just how “helpful” The evil Twins From Maine have been. We need adult Conservative Senators who will help move the agenda and to change the direction of the weak-kneed Republican Senatorial leadership.


39 posted on 09/26/2012 7:00:04 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: freeangel

” I can tell you he won’t be beholden to the GOP if he gets in.”

And just how will that “help” our situation? We all know just how “helpful” The evil Twins From Maine have been. We need adult Conservative Senators who will help move the agenda and to change the direction of the weak-kneed Republican Senatorial leadership.


40 posted on 09/26/2012 7:00:11 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: Just mythoughts

I’ll get right on that. Meanwhile, akin’s expert rapist commentary and gynecological idiocy has tarred other Republicans with his ramblings.

He did not contain it to the MO border, now those in other states and on the national ticket must distance themselves from him.


41 posted on 09/26/2012 7:14:45 PM PDT by soycd
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To: Sacajaweau

“We want 60 seats.”

I want us to have 114 seats in the senate.

2 X 57 = 114


42 posted on 09/26/2012 8:08:26 PM PDT by Holly_P
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To: vette6387

“And just how will that “help” our situation?”

I never said the situation would be helpful. I simply stated the obvious fact that the GOP hasn’t done him any favors and it would seem unlikely that he would be at their beck and call when they needed anything.


43 posted on 09/27/2012 6:07:59 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: freeangel

” it would seem unlikely that he would be at their beck and call when they needed anything.”

And you don’t see that as a problem? Look, Akin screwed up big time! The words that came out of his mouth are those of an ignoramus. He should be eating “humble pie” that because of his intransigence, the GOP, if it has any hope of gaining this seat, has to knuckle under and support him. The idea that he’s some sort of Conservative paragon is laughable. The fact that he’s been in the Congress for twelve years simply speaks to the stupidity of his constituents, because I doubt very much that this is the first time he’s stepped in it.


44 posted on 09/27/2012 8:41:56 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: vette6387

“And you don’t see that as a problem?”

I DO see that as a problem. I also see the Senate minority whip supporting a democrat as a problem. which apparently you do not.


45 posted on 09/27/2012 10:34:06 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: freeangel

” I also see the Senate minority whip supporting a democrat as a problem. which apparently you do not.”

I was not aware of the matter you mention. Perhaps you could enlighten me. For what it’s worth, I have about had it with the GOPe. Boner is a wimp, as are his two henchmen, Cantor and McCarthy. On the Senate side, I think “Mr. Chinless” McConnell needs to go along with Bob Corker, the “other Evil Twin from Maine, Chamblis, the AH from Texas who runs the RSCC and let’s not leave out McLame.The overall trouble in the Senate is that these jerks have made it their life’s work. The 25 longest serving Senators have a total of more than 500 years of “service,” or at least they did before the 2010 election. Most of the will probably die there! If the GOP screws up this election, I am re-registering Ind, and at one time I was a Republican County Central Committeeman for three terms. So if I have missed something, please be good enough to point out where the problem is in your opinion.


46 posted on 09/27/2012 2:58:30 PM PDT by vette6387
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