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Dick Morris: Romney Pulls Ahead
dickmorris.com ^ | 26 September 2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:31 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men.

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: morris; obama; polling; romney
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1 posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:43 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: Senator Goldwater

More from Morris:

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That’s the real state of play today.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 9:09:53 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: Senator Goldwater

Well one good thing is going to come out of this election. Either the GOP Establishment pundits like Rove and Morris are going to get their ass handed them or the Leftist Media pollsters are.


3 posted on 09/26/2012 9:11:09 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie

I wish Dick Morris was correct but it looks to me that Obama is going to win unless something changes significantly.


4 posted on 09/26/2012 9:16:48 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: Senator Goldwater
Dick Morris better be right or his career is going down real fast. No excuses. He's been saying Romney will win for weeks, I hope and want him to be right. But if he's wrong, I don't want to hear his excuses how at the last minute Romney did or didn't do this or that. He seems to know what he's talking about this time around, but if he's wrong I won't take what he says seriously anymore. Are you listening Dick?

I think I'm having election anxiety— Obama’s gotta go!

5 posted on 09/26/2012 9:19:53 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: Senator Goldwater

Pretty sure Morris is flat out lying on this one. Even the Romney camp is saying they are behind, just not as far behind as the public polls suggest.

At the same time, I sure hope he is correct.


6 posted on 09/26/2012 9:20:39 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: malkee

How’s that? Polls are even. Obama probably has slight lead electorally. Its far from over. Ohio is my only concern right now.


7 posted on 09/26/2012 9:23:31 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: Senator Goldwater

What did Dick Morris predict about the presidential race in 2008?


8 posted on 09/26/2012 9:24:23 PM PDT by Kay
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To: malkee
That is defeatist and very incorrect.

No Way O’Bumbler walks away with this election. Name ONE, JUST ONE, person who voted for McCain that has decided that O’Bumbler has done such a good job that he deserves a second term!

Now think about just the people you know who voted O’Bumbler who are either NOT voting for him this time or are actively voting against him.

Do you think you are the only one?

9 posted on 09/26/2012 9:27:04 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: malkee

You are letting them get to you. This is exactly what they want.

Go to www.unskewedpolls.com and read the articles along the left-hand side.

Morris gave the best explanation of what’s really going on with the polls tonight on O’Reilly, and even the Bloviator in Chief shut up long enough to learn something

It’s psyops. Don’t let them win.


10 posted on 09/26/2012 9:28:26 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: MacMattico

He was right abpout the mid terms, amost dead on. He came coser than any anayst to the wipe out that the Democrats sustained.

The Repubicans amost took the Senate. If not for the Anti-Conservative Repubican estabishment back bighters , they probaby would have.

It is time to take the gloves off!


11 posted on 09/26/2012 9:29:41 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Kay

He nailed the midterms when everyone else were predicting smaoll losses he predicted 65 seats. Too bad Scott Walker lost the recall too.

Pray for America


12 posted on 09/26/2012 9:29:49 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: malkee
And why ?????
You have fallen for the Axelrod astroturf and all the concerned trolls that appear here during election time and then disappear ?? Did you know Axelrod created web astroturf ???
13 posted on 09/26/2012 9:30:46 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: comebacknewt

And your expertise is in ????
And Your facts are exactly what ?????


14 posted on 09/26/2012 9:33:23 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Jim from C-Town

Well, I live in Pennsylvania, one of the states Morris says is tipping to Romney.

I don’t know anyone who voted for Obama in 08 who is voting for Romney this time around. I can hardly think of anyone, outside myself who voted for McCain.

Right now I am in Florida and in my informal survey here Obama is winning as well.

When you are surrounded by Democrats it is hard not to be influenced. And the numbers support me.


15 posted on 09/26/2012 9:34:43 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: Senator Goldwater

Toe-Sucker Speaks!


16 posted on 09/26/2012 9:34:54 PM PDT by Old Sarge (We are now officially over the precipice, we just havent struck the ground yet)
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To: malkee

Based on what? The only indicator I see of an Obama win from here is Romney’s tepid messaging.


17 posted on 09/26/2012 9:35:54 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: bray

THIS IS LIKE 1980....Just go vote and take someone with you...Polls mean nothing until the last week they need to look half way right.. They will say it is really close...


18 posted on 09/26/2012 9:35:58 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: malkee

What part of Florida are you in? All the dems are in hiding over here on the West side.


19 posted on 09/26/2012 9:38:53 PM PDT by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge)
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To: malkee
In Fl too ???

Gee your a FL expertise based what exactly again since your from Pa ???

Funny how my family is from there and they say the exact opposite ???

20 posted on 09/26/2012 9:39:34 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Hojczyk

Nineteen eighty was the first presidential election I voted in. It was a landslide. Romney is not going to win by a landslide.


21 posted on 09/26/2012 9:40:38 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: Hojczyk

These polls are simply campaign fundraising for their messiah.

Pray for America


22 posted on 09/26/2012 9:41:58 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: Kay
On Oct 24th 2008 he wrote

For those who would rather not find out, it is particularly important to redouble our efforts for John McCain and to battle for each Senate seat. McCain is only seven points behind – not an insurmountable margin. A good final week could save the free enterprise system. We owe it to our future to try.

He had the 7 point right. The rest was cheerleading.

23 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:00 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: piasa; ncalburt

I am in Hollywood. And I base my expertise here on the fact that I lived here for several years.


24 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:10 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: malkee

where are you again Fl expert ????

Maybe Chicago ??????


25 posted on 09/26/2012 9:42:30 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: ncalburt

I have a hard time believing you have relatives in Pennsylvania. They must live somewhere in the middle of the state. Otherwise they would feel the Obama influence.
And once again, I am in Hollywood, FL. Not Chicago.


26 posted on 09/26/2012 9:45:45 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: bigbob
The NYTimes polling analyst meanwhile tweeting up a storm of propaganda tonight: Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight The polls could definitely be overestimating Democratic turnout. However, just as likely, they could be underestimating it. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight What's turnout going to be like? WHY DON'T WE TAKE A PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY AND FIND OUT! Not up to the pollster to decide for the voters. 12h Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight I trust pollsters more when they show an OCCASIONAL outlier. It shows you that they're not cheating. 12h Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Once pollsters start to act like turnout is a matter of subjective opinion, the whole point of polling is defeated. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Thinking every poll but Rasmussen is skewed is literally as delusional as believing that 9/11 was a conspiracy.
27 posted on 09/26/2012 9:46:25 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: malkee
Broward county the most left wing county in FL ???

Its the center of left wing hell in the state .

28 posted on 09/26/2012 9:46:31 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: malkee

Nothing but Communists in Hollywood! And Clint Eastwood. And you, of course.


29 posted on 09/26/2012 9:48:52 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: malkee
You are surrounded in Hollywood Fl .
Its the most corrupt Dem party cesspool in FL.
NO wonder you feel that way .
My family is from Sarasota.
30 posted on 09/26/2012 9:49:51 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Senator Goldwater

Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.

He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.


31 posted on 09/26/2012 9:50:04 PM PDT by untwist
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To: Senator Goldwater

Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.

He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.


32 posted on 09/26/2012 9:50:45 PM PDT by untwist
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To: ncalburt

Yes, tell me about it. Why do you think I left. (Only part of the reason,actually.) I don’t miss the political aspects of that. But it kills me about free republic. I haven’t been on here in a while, and every time you express an opinion that doesn’t tow the party line you get jumped on. I’m not saying I wish Obama would win. I hope he doesn’t. I hope Dick Morris is right. But I remember when Dick Morris guaranteed Hillary Clinton would become president in 2009. (That was in 2007). He’s been wrong before, and I think there’s a likelihood he’ll be wrong agin.


33 posted on 09/26/2012 9:51:02 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: malkee

This election will be decided in the first 15 minutes, of the first debate.

Unfortunately, all the big media stories about how amazingly Obama did in the debate will be written by close of business tomorrow.


34 posted on 09/26/2012 9:52:02 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: 9YearLurker
Nate Silver formerly employee at Daily KOZ !
The brilliant one that predicted the Dems would keep the House in 2010.
The all knowing one that predicted Gov Scott was in big trouble in the WI recall ? What is the story with Jewish Leftists pushing a Marxist Muslim ??
35 posted on 09/26/2012 9:56:02 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: malkee
That's a good point about Hillary.
Where are you in PA ?
36 posted on 09/26/2012 9:58:18 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: MacMattico

Correct. Fox had better sever all ties with him if Romney loses...Morris is going all out and all in on this one. The best night of Dick Morris on television was when Alan Colmes called him out on how much he is wrong and how many times he has been wrong and put out a long list and Morris was ready to walk off set.


37 posted on 09/26/2012 10:00:55 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache (In a world where I feel so small, I can't stop thinking big.)
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To: Senator Goldwater
I wish the Romney-Ryan team was not so far behind in the polls in OHIO, but then I realized that we have the Three C's, Cincinnati, Columbus and Cincinnati with their big inner city Democrap voting blocs. Add those to the big voting blocs of inner city Toledo,Dayton,Youngstown, and the whole Northern Ohio area, and all the college student Obobo lovers, white guilt people, and you will see that we (Conservatives,Republicans) are outnumbered. I wish it wasn't true, but wishing isn't going to help. Too many people getting the freebies! I'm not giving up, just stating my opinion.
38 posted on 09/26/2012 10:01:06 PM PDT by timestax (Why not drug tests for the President AND all White Hut staff ? ? ?)
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To: timestax
We are dissing the facts of the adviser's of two Presidents Bill Clinton who won two elections and GW Bush.

I see the lack of support of people who in 08 would debate you on Obama

I am not seeing it in 2012

39 posted on 09/26/2012 10:11:03 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: Jim from C-Town
No Way O’Bumbler walks away with this election. Name ONE, JUST ONE, person who voted for McCain that has decided that O’Bumbler has done such a good job

True but irrelevant. A fair number of elderly voters from four years ago are dead. Four new years of younger voters are eligible to vote. The voting age population has grown and shifted in demographics. Obama will lose a lot of his supporters. But he has to lose an awful lot before Romney wins. I think that will happen but it's an uphill struggle.

40 posted on 09/26/2012 10:11:22 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: malkee

Hollywood is a very liberal working class area. Even the nice parts, few and far between, border not very nice areas. It has been like that for 50 years. Even the eastern areas by the Diplomat are pretty dumpy and very liberal.

In Palm Beach County, which is also liberal, enthusiasm for Ob is gone. Boca, West Palm, Delray, North Palm and much of eastern Broward. Obama will not get moderate Democrats or Indepndents this time.


41 posted on 09/26/2012 10:11:46 PM PDT by Markbg
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: ncalburt

I live just outside Pittsburgh. My area could go to Romney. But I doubt the rest of the state will.


43 posted on 09/26/2012 10:16:56 PM PDT by malkee (Please don't flame me, I don't deserve it.)
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To: ncalburt

http://www.towleroad.com/2010/11/americas-shifting-house-nate-silvers-predictions.html


44 posted on 09/26/2012 11:03:37 PM PDT by muwarriors92
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To: muwarriors92

Broward resident since 1972.

Approx. 66% Demrat here. And DWS, need I say more?

Broward and Dade are liberal sewers.


45 posted on 09/26/2012 11:12:01 PM PDT by bicyclerepair ( REPLACE D-W-S ! http://www.karenforcongress.com)
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To: Jim from C-Town
That's one reason I believe him now, he was good on the mid-terms. And you can't argue with his statement that the Democrats aren't as enthusiastic as ‘08. How could they be with this deadbeat in the White House? The looney left still worships Obama, but the blue dogs must be absolutely in shock. Obama is horrible. Hopefully there will also be more crossover then Dems are willing to admit in a poll.
46 posted on 09/26/2012 11:23:18 PM PDT by MacMattico
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To: Senator Goldwater

why would latinos go for bammey?....blacks and latinos don’t get along for the most part....


47 posted on 09/26/2012 11:33:30 PM PDT by cherry
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To: malkee
I suggest that you need a better set of friends and acquaintances. As for being surrounded by Democrats, I live in Cuyahoga County, OH. It IS the Democrat part of Ohio and has not had an elected Republican in a county wide office in close to fifty years, Yet outside of the Blacks there is almost NO talk of Obama and even less signage and certainly no Hope & Change.
48 posted on 09/26/2012 11:45:38 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Alter Kaker
He has to lose exactly 3% of his voters. That is all. He won with 52.6% of the vote. That is all. If he loses 3% of his vote, or if the Black vote falls to it's normal level of 11% of the population, He loses and he knows it.

Last election was an outlier. We had a market crash, bank upheaval, Economic collapse, war, Bush fatigue and a full court press for O’Bumbler. Today he owns the economy, it sucks and he has shown that his philosophy is NOT working.

O,Bumbler is the one in trouble, his spastic reactions and wild swings and his poor leadership is all showing. He hasn't polled above fifty percent in a popularity poll in years and has spent most of hos presidency flirting with the low forties.

He and the Democrats are old tired and the new ID laws are already showing a decline in Democrat absentee ballots. In many states, like Ohio a copy of a picture ID and last four of SS# MUST accompany an application for absentee ballots and you MUST have ID to vote in person. The Dem applications ARE WAY DOWN in Crooked County and that is where the DEMS have cheated out OHIO for decades.

I am very confident that if Romney has a good showing gin the first debate, It is all over for the O’Bumbler!

49 posted on 09/27/2012 12:03:32 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Jim from C-Town
Also Remember, Democrat Party Affiliation is at its lowest level EVER! Republican Party Affiliation actually is HIGHER than Democrats for the first time EVER!

For some reason the pollsters seem to think that even though Democrats have LOST a large amount of voter registrations, they will suddenly have all those people lining up to vote for the representative of the party they just made a conscious decision to leave. I don't think so.

50 posted on 09/27/2012 12:07:37 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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