Skip to comments.Final Q2 GDP Disaster: 1.25% Growth Comes Below Lowest Estimate
Posted on 09/27/2012 6:05:03 AM PDT by Zakeet
So much for the US recovery (we will never tire of saying that). After the first Q2 GDP revision bubbled up from 1.5% to 1.7%, the sellside brigade was confident that the rate of growth would continue and final Q2 GDP would be in line. Instead, we got an absolute shock of a print, with the final Q2 GDP print coming in at a ridiculously low 1.25% (rounded up to 1.3%), below the lowest Wall Street estimate of 1.4%, and the lowest number since the revised 0.1% reported in January 2011.
Here is the final GDP trendline: Q4 2011: 4.1%; Q1 2012: 2.0%; Q2 2012: 1.25%.
Luckily, at least "housing has bottomed."
The reason for the major contraction in the final print: a downward revision to all favorable components except Government which detracted the least from growth in years at just -0.14%. Of note - Personal Consumption was 1.06%, down from the 1.20% per the second revision.
If nothing, we now know just what data Bernanke was looking at on an advance basis to come up with QEternity, and we also know the reason for the media and administration's all in gamble to reflate housing yet again. If the housing market does not go up courtesy of infinite cheap leverage, it could be curtains for the Bernanke reflation experiment.
... and these dismal results despite the efforts of almost every unionized, libtard, civil servant, bureaucrat to cook the books in favor of the Royal Idiot!
this is the real story...not the doctored jobs report
FYI- 3rd revision for Q1 GDP is 1.88%. Two quarters under 2%.... if we had a Republican president the media would be crying recession.
It is a disaster indeed...
GET ME SOMETHING ROMNEY SAID THAT WE CAN SPIN INTO A GAFFE, QUICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“revised down” has been way too common under this admin
Another distraction is coming. Another Contra-versy (instead of controversy)
Jobs report is GREAT. Lower than last week. Lower than expected. Never mind the GDP, “move along”.
The more they print money for QE to help their banker buddies, the more parts cost to keep business running.
Its like milking cows, only the government did not stop when the milk ran out and only blood came. The economy is now one faint, pale cow hooked up to a dozen milking machines.
They are indeed cooking the books. We are actually in another recession without ever having recovered from the first one. They are trying their hardest to cover it up until mid-November.
Let’s call that blue line the “Walmart Curve”-—it coincides exactly with Walmart leading the pack to ship US jobs to China, Peru, Bangladesh, Borneo, Botswana and wherever else they make that substandard cheapkrap they sell. It also coincides with the last time, 1985, I actually bought anything in a Walmart.
ROFL ... ‘The Walmart Curve’ ... I love it.
But I thought housing had turned around. Damn, I’m confused.
Two consecutive down quarters is a RECESSION!
2011 Q4 - 4.1%
2012 Q1 - 1.9%
2012 Q2 - 1.25%
Also, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) describes it as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
I think from 4.1% down to 1.25% in six months is a SIGNIFICANT decline and therefore, Obama has lead and continues to lead the US in a prolonged RECESSION!
Foolish to think otherwise!!