Posted on 09/27/2012 6:38:02 AM PDT by Ravi
above
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.gmu.edu ...
Aren’t the Repubs leading in returned early voting in Ohio as well? Thought I’d read that yesterday..
And if it keeps up, what does it mean?
Nothing.
Yes, follow LS, LDSentinal and Global somebody.
Hope they’re keeping all these in a safe place.
You couldn’t be more wrong.
There’s something fundamentally wrong allowing people to vote before the debates are even held. IMO, all this excessive early voting does is make it more possible for election fraud.
I realize there needs to be some leeway for absentee voters, but six weeks?
Maybe, but more than likely these people made u their minds 4 years ago. Nothin’s gonna change that.
And this:
NORTH CAROLINA reports as of Thursday morning 78,801 ballot requests with the following party breakdown:
Party Reg
Dem 26.7%
Rep 52.8%
None/Oth 20.5%
This is the first indication of democratic underperformance right here. In 2008, dems had returned over 30% of the absentee ballots in NC. So at 27% and heading lower every day, this might be our first leading indicator.
Ok, let’s hear a conclusion. In addition to the numbers given, you’ll need:
- number of R’s who requested AB’s
- number of D’s who requested AB’s
- number of R AB’s compared to non-AB’s
- number of D AB’s compared to non-AB’s
You’ll also need the number of registered D’s and the number of registered R’s, but you can get that from the above.
Diogenes has returned. Nice cover.
The Iowa numbers look awful.
Would be great to know how NC this year is comparing to 2008, when Obama won the state by an eyelash
Actually if it keeps up... it’s a landslide.
In NC for example Democrats have a 12% registration advantage.
If turnout is anywhere near plus 20% for the Republicans (a 30+ point swing) Romney wins NC by double digits.
If similar turnout happen across the country... it looks like the Reagan-Mondale map.
This is not good. I thought conservatives hated early voting. I thought conservatives wanted early voting shut down and only military getting absentee voting privileges. It is scary to think that conservatives are early voting when it is against what most believe that it should not happen.
Thank you for the mention Ravi. I don’t disagree with your analysis.
It does look good.
If it was the opposite the bedwetters would be crying and some strutting like peacocks
It givesmorte time to talk a friend into making that trip to the ballot box
Scott, we’ll add you to our absentee OH/NC ping list. And yes, absentees in OH point to a substantial Romney win. Everything could change, but so far . . . .
Au contraire. It means a great deal. In 08 we had advance warning that we disregarded that Dems were overperforming in absentee & early voting.
This is a SOLID snapshot, county by county (at least, in OH as we have compiled a spreadsheet) and Obama is getting crushed everywhere but Cuyahoga, and even there he’s down big.
In short, this is the canary in the coal mine for Obama’s reelection. It’s dead, Jim.
That registration ratio is a start. But that’s not nearly enough to draw valid conclusions. I didn’t even offer the question of timing of mailing (military ballots, e.g.) being an important variable.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Most voters prefer early voting, conservatives included. I will vote on first day of early voting in Texas. It felt weird for me to actually vote on election day in 2008. We should push this and continue it. Nothing wrong with it at all.
f you want to be added to the ping list, contact Jet Jaguar.
Our county by county OH spreadsheet shows total absentees; total Rs & Ds; total 2004 numbers for each county; victory % and raw numbers for 2004.
No matter how you cut it, Obama is hugely underperforming in OH. For ex., in Franklin (Columbus) which he won by 21% (!!) he is already at a 5,500 vote disadvantage.
Early/Absentee votes will constitute almost 1/4 of all OH votes. The trend is absolutely our friend-—and by the way, this is across EVERY county, even Dem friendly counties are way down for Dem ballots and way up for GOP.
Ok let’s go with those 2008 numbers — what does “overperforming” mean, does it mean they returned a higher percentage of AB’s than R’s did, or that they returned them earlier, or that more D’s voted via AB than R’s, or what.
Knowing nothing about NC registration except what I’ve seen on this thread, which is almost certainly why I see a dozen variables instead of just one or two, I don’t see any conclusion that can’t be refuted.
Thank you!
I guess I must have misinterpreted some other threads. But good for you...Romney right? lol.
Military/overseas ballots were mailed out earlier. Military favored repubs and domestic overseas favored dems. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sort through this data and see where the trends lie.
.......ALRIGHT LS!!!!!
Yeah, it is enough to draw a pretty good conclusion. I operate on three assumptions (which the beloved polls all tend to support): 1) no Ds will vote for Romney; 2) no Rs will vote for Obama; and 3) Is will split 50/50. Now, the final one is in doubt, only because almost ALL polls have shown Romney with a LEAD in this group-—but we’ll play it conservatively.
This was exactly the same info everyone around here disregarded in 2008, and it was a harbinger of an Obama victory. We won’t ignore it again. But this time, it is showing a crushing defeat for the Dems in OH and, so far, NC.
Seriously? You’re stooping to this? Criticizing early voting because it proves your STUPID little theories wrong?
Why can’t you be a man and say, “I was wrong (so far).” “So far, it looks like the polls were, in fact, wrong.” “So far, Romney is killing it in OH.”
That’s all you need to say.
Do you have the full breakdown from 4yrs ago? Do you happen to remember what percentage of Republicans voted for Obama in NC in 2k8?
This is where we have to be careful. Repubs did outperform in absentees in 2008 in NC also so we are now above where we were only in absentees in comparison to 2008. Also, in 2004, absentees accounted for 13% of all early voting and in 2008, absentees accounted for 8.7% of all early voting. I’d like to see that absentee total/all early voting ratio to be above 10%. That we have to wait to see.
You should be added to the ping list. The OH numbers are even more impressive. Shocking, really.
Those are the numbers I was talking about. Without absolute numbers of AB’s, party registration, etc., any assertion of trend or prediction of outcome could easily be refuted. Much obliged.
.
Thanks for the updates on Ohio -
180° from the garbage the media is shoveling.....
.
Over and underperforming based on 2008 turnout.
Guess you need a primer on polling, and why all the polling that is out there is (if these numbers are accurate) badly off:
All polls assume a D/R split based on some turnout model. So far, not only are all the polls except Rasmussen using the 2008 model, some are actually INCREASING the turnout from 2008. This is just ludicrous and unconscionable. Nevertheless, if, say, a county went for Obama by 60-40, then the model used for a poll would consist of interviewing 60 Ds and 40 Rs-—and they would have a split for Indies, but let’s table that for now.
The dynamics of OH are that if the Rs turn out and vote R, Rs win. No exceptions. In 2008, Rs turned out and 25% voted Dem. I don’t know one analyst, even the most lib, who thinks that this time around Romney won’t get almost all Rs and Obama will get almost all Ds.
So when we see a county that went 60-40 for Obama and it now has absentee early splits coming in at 66-33 REPUBLICAN (say, Hamilton County) the Dems are in huge trouble.
You MIGHT say, “Well, x county is an outlier.” Yes, that would be valid. But when it’s across the board, even in the very Dem heavy counties (Obama will be down 70,000 votes in Cuyahoa, for ex.-—count on it), then barring something really unusual, Obama is screwed in OH.
Based on the heavy “overperformance” of Rs in NC, he’s screwed there too. If we find numbers are similar in VA and FL, then it’s going to be an early night on Nov. 6.
But let’s all PLEASE remember that in 08, at least in OH, large numbers (10% of our deepest red precincts) of Rs voted for Obama.
In all of my assumptions this time-—and I could be wrong-—NO R will vote for Obama and no D will vote for Romney. Those who do will cancel.
http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=69
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_North_Carolina,_2008
http://elections.gmu.edu/Early_Voting_2008_Final.html
That last one is the best.
Here’s the spreadsheet. If you want on the ping list, let me know.
And if I’m making some huge error, I need to know that too, because I can get this into the hands of some pretty influential people, but I need to know that we’re 100% right.
This isn’t good though . . . .
“On the surface, at least, it would appear that Obama has a significant jump on the early balloting. At close of business Tuesday, 114,585 Democrats had requested absentee ballots from election officials; compared to 22,364 Republicans, according to the office of Secretary of State Matt Schultz. That’s a better than 5-to-1 margin.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/27/early-voting-begins-in-iowa/
c’mon Hawkeyes
If you want on the spreadsheet/OH/NC ping list, contact Jet Jaguar.
The Dems love early voting because it gives them more time to get their voters to the polls. You lock them up early on and don't have to worry about the weather on election day or possible events happening before election day. Many people will be voting long before the debates. We are already voting in VA and Ohio starts next Monday. The Dems are busy getting their voters together at the colleges, old age homes, etc. and providing them transportation to the polls.
The GOP, the Stupid Party, is finally waking up to the importance of early voting. Turnout is what wins elections and we can't wait until election day to get people to the polls. All conservatives should vote early if at all possible. 40% of the votes will be cast before election day.
I’m worried about IA too. I bet the Ds mailed out a bunch of pre-filled-in absentee ballot applications with stamped envelopes to a bunch of people.
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You do not promise seasoned cordwood in North Carolina and then deliver wet garbage! |
Why aren’t Romney’s internal polls showing this? I know he wouldn’t release that information publicly, but I think we would be able to tell.
Put me on your ping list please.
I’m emailing some columnists and asking them to figure out what’s up in IA.
I said I misinterpreted what conservatives have said about early voting that it gets the dead voting, illegals voting easier, and democrats out to vote. Stoop to this? What are you referring too? If you want to early vote nothing is stopping you.
Of early ballots in 2008 in IA, Dems returned 47% and Repubs 27%. This is something we need to keep track of.
Also with voter registration in IA, repubs outnumber dems in pure outright numbers now compared to 2008. We were outnumbered back then.
Four to six weeks ago, I predicted Romney/Ryan would win by a big margine, so this is good.
Add me to the list, or point me in the right direction please. Thanks. :^)
I'm also in Texas, and very conservative. I will early vote at my first opportunity - because I want my vote to count even if I get hit by a Mack truck before election day; that's the least I can do for everyone else.
Why do you think he just said, emphatically, "I WILL WIN OH?"
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