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To: rwilson99

That registration ratio is a start. But that’s not nearly enough to draw valid conclusions. I didn’t even offer the question of timing of mailing (military ballots, e.g.) being an important variable.


19 posted on 09/27/2012 7:15:00 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: jiggyboy

Military/overseas ballots were mailed out earlier. Military favored repubs and domestic overseas favored dems. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sort through this data and see where the trends lie.


25 posted on 09/27/2012 7:21:13 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: jiggyboy

Yeah, it is enough to draw a pretty good conclusion. I operate on three assumptions (which the beloved polls all tend to support): 1) no Ds will vote for Romney; 2) no Rs will vote for Obama; and 3) Is will split 50/50. Now, the final one is in doubt, only because almost ALL polls have shown Romney with a LEAD in this group-—but we’ll play it conservatively.

This was exactly the same info everyone around here disregarded in 2008, and it was a harbinger of an Obama victory. We won’t ignore it again. But this time, it is showing a crushing defeat for the Dems in OH and, so far, NC.


27 posted on 09/27/2012 7:21:42 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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