That registration ratio is a start. But that’s not nearly enough to draw valid conclusions. I didn’t even offer the question of timing of mailing (military ballots, e.g.) being an important variable.
Military/overseas ballots were mailed out earlier. Military favored repubs and domestic overseas favored dems. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientist to sort through this data and see where the trends lie.
Yeah, it is enough to draw a pretty good conclusion. I operate on three assumptions (which the beloved polls all tend to support): 1) no Ds will vote for Romney; 2) no Rs will vote for Obama; and 3) Is will split 50/50. Now, the final one is in doubt, only because almost ALL polls have shown Romney with a LEAD in this group-—but we’ll play it conservatively.
This was exactly the same info everyone around here disregarded in 2008, and it was a harbinger of an Obama victory. We won’t ignore it again. But this time, it is showing a crushing defeat for the Dems in OH and, so far, NC.