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Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
The New York Times ^ | September 27, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/27/2012 2:51:19 PM PDT by BurningOak

There’s no point in putting it gently: Mitt Romney had one of his worst polling days of the year on Wednesday.

It began with a series of polls from The New York Times, CBS News and Quinnipiac University, released early Wednesday morning, which gave President Obama leads of between 9 and 11 points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Later in the day, Mr. Romney got polls showing unfavorable numbers for him in Colorado and Iowa.

Unlike many recent days, when Mr. Obama’s national polls were slightly less euphoric than his swing state surveys, Wednesday’s national polls seemed to support the notion that Mr. Obama has a clear lead in the race. The Gallup national tracking poll gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters, close to his high mark on the year in that survey. The online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos gave him a six-point lead among likely voters. Another online tracking poll, from the RAND Corporation, put Mr. Obama’s lead at roughly seven and a half percentage points, his largest of the year in that poll. And a national poll for Bloomberg produced by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, who has a strong track record, put Mr. Obama six points ahead.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; nyslimes; obama; polls; romney; slimes
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This is a semi-vanity, would not normally post a NYT puff piece for Obama, but I am really anxious and need reassurance. The consensus from numerous polls seems to be that Romney is slipping, and that Obama may be reelected (RIP USA). I am suspicious of polls, but they reflect what I see in real life, people don't like Obama but have no love for Romney. It is not enough for people to dislike or even hate Obama, they need to be passionate about Romney, and I am worried that the "anyone but Obama" crowd will suffer same fate as the "anyone but Bush" crowd did. Can we win an election with an unlikable RINO on the ticket?

Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

The longer this election cycle goes, the more I am convinced that Palin refusing to run was a national tragedy.

1 posted on 09/27/2012 2:51:25 PM PDT by BurningOak
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To: BurningOak

The polls are BS. Don’t pay too much attention to them. Check this:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/


2 posted on 09/27/2012 2:53:53 PM PDT by BootsOfEscaping
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To: BurningOak

Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Yes. Yes, you are. All day long Rush and others have been having a field day as they tear apart this bogus NYT poll.


3 posted on 09/27/2012 2:54:46 PM PDT by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: BurningOak

What about 2010?


4 posted on 09/27/2012 2:55:11 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: BurningOak

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/27/why-the-q-poll-is-a-qrock-new-york-post/

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/26/point-of-clarification-on-my-2012-turnout-piece-and-the-white-voter/


5 posted on 09/27/2012 2:55:28 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: BootsOfEscaping

Why hasn’t that table at unskewedpolls.com been updated in days? There have been multiple new polls that aren’t included.


6 posted on 09/27/2012 2:56:05 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: BurningOak

The organization that conducted this poll, Quinnepec, even admitted the sample unreasonably overweighed Dems. Don’t worry. Follow Rasumssen - they were the most accurate in 2010 and they have it even.


7 posted on 09/27/2012 2:57:10 PM PDT by circlecity
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To: BurningOak; Admin Moderator
Actually, I think you are a concern troll.

Welcome to Free Republic.

/johnny

8 posted on 09/27/2012 2:57:57 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: BurningOak
Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

Read this thread below and get back to us:

Be Confident! The Election is About Obama

9 posted on 09/27/2012 2:58:04 PM PDT by CedarDave (Presstitutes: Journalists who refuse to ask hard questions and who report by omission or distortion)
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To: BurningOak
Print this and look at it when you are reading those ridiculously skewed and libelous poll articles.


10 posted on 09/27/2012 2:58:47 PM PDT by COUNTrecount (What Clint Said !!!)
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To: BurningOak

Will Nate survive the shame and embarrassment that’s coming his way in November?


11 posted on 09/27/2012 3:00:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: BurningOak

The left (and the NYT is part of the left’s media arm) are doing what they always do when their backs are to the wall-spin, spin, spin-in other words, lie. They did this same thing before Reagan defeated Carter. They are deliberately trying to create the perception they want rather than report the one which exists. One way to know this is to look into all the “micros”-ie, a majority of the middle class supports Romney, a majority reports that they trust Romney with the economy (the major issue) rather than Obama or the ‘rats, etc. Now, how can things like these be true, yet it also be true (using weighted polls, yet) that Obama is handily winning? It’s easier for the Obama media to spin the “overall” polls because they know most people don’t pay attention to the details which are showing the opposite.


12 posted on 09/27/2012 3:01:45 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: BurningOak
Nate Silver: "Could 2012 Be Like 2008?"


13 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:06 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What is there no Gallup number today? It’s 6 pm eastern, and no Gallup number.

Could it be that they are having to scramble to make it “right”?


14 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:26 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: CedarDave

That is a good one, I need to start listening again.


15 posted on 09/27/2012 3:02:42 PM PDT by BurningOak (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830849/reply?c=1)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nate Silver, by the way, is a fag. Not to put too fine a point on it.


16 posted on 09/27/2012 3:04:34 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: JRandomFreeper

I didn’t like to be suspicious right off the bat, but I was thinking the same. It’s waaayyy too early and the polls waaayyy too obviously skewed-especially to mostly politically savvy Freepers-for this kind of “woe is me”.


17 posted on 09/27/2012 3:04:34 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: BurningOak
gave Mr. Obama a six-point lead among registered voters

Pay attention to who they're asking, then factor in the turnout model. This poll is utter trash.

18 posted on 09/27/2012 3:05:39 PM PDT by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Romney crushes Obama Nate will need to find new job. That said its not like these people care about being wrong or even outright liars.


19 posted on 09/27/2012 3:08:01 PM PDT by BurningOak (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2830849/reply?c=1)
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To: BurningOak
Am I wrong? Am I falling for enemy propaganda?

Sounds like it. Obama isn't re-electable by any stretch of the imagination. The only question in my mind, is what Romney will do, once in office. If his past performance is any clue to his future performance, then Lord be with us.

The longer this election cycle goes, the more I am convinced that Palin refusing to run was a national tragedy.

It absolutely was. She would have easily mopped the floor with Obama, and set this country on a course to real restoration. I'm not ashamed to admit that I actually wept for my country on the day she stood down.

I firmly believe that she determined the course of future events in this country with that one personal decision. I've often wondered if she herself realizes that. I have to believe that she does, and that she will find a way to answer the call to greatness in the coming years. That's if we can survive what's coming.

20 posted on 09/27/2012 3:10:17 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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